Paddy’s Picks began nearly a year ago with analysis of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. We now come full circle with another stacked card at my favorite track on the planet. I’ve been mulling over the Belmont Stakes for weeks now, but my attention is now diverted by a massive amount of talent at every division, including both Pegasus World Cup winners and more Chad Brown turf horses than one can possibly profit from. Days like these breathe life into every racing fan and inspire hope in an uncertain future for the sport. Let’s get cracking:
Race 1
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
3- Hagler (SCR)
4- Wit
2- Keepcalmcarryon
8- Too Much Action
Update: The 3, Hagler, is scratched.
This race is far from the most appetizing of the day. Lightly raced juveniles are always a little difficult to evaluate, but in his first race, Hagler seemed to learn a thing or two in a runner-up performance behind Little Drama. That colt would have won the Tremont by daylight yesterday if not for a scratch, so he’s already been tested on the track and would only lose to a runner with more raw talent. Wit could very well have that talent as the likelier of two firsters going out for Todd Pletcher here, though Keepcalmcarryon is also one to consider on paper alone. Too Much Action will make his first start for Jeremiah O’Dwyer and I picked him for fourth on the basis that the trainer doesn’t mess around bringing solid runners to Belmont.
Race 2
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
6- Pipeline
1- Soft Power (Fr)
8- Ranger Fox
4- Migrate
This maiden race offers a little more in the way of a handicapping puzzle, as there are a lot of angles to go on and one that really matters. Call me lazy, but Pipeline and Soft Power (Fr) are both lightly raced Chad Brown runners making their turf debuts on Belmont Stakes Day. Pipeline’s first start was in a very competitive dirt race featuring First Captain and Mahaamel, and the switch to turf almost resembles class relief considering Brown’s involvement. Meanwhile, Soft Power is a French bred Klaravich runner debuting for Brown — a very powerful, if brief, sentence. Ranger Fox had the most promising turf start in this field last time out and Bill Mott probably isn’t messing around with first time starter Migrate, but both Brown runners look legitimate.
Race 3
Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
3- Jackie’s Warrior
4- Dream Shake
2- Drain the Clock
6- Caddo River
The G2 Pat Day Mile is clearly the most valuable prep for this race, and Jackie’s Warrior won in a truly special way that day. Under pressure the entire time, he fought bravely on the lead in blistering fractions and still had enough in the stretch to hold off Dream Shake, who probably should have won after sitting a favorable stalking trip. The cutback to seven furlongs probably helps both runners, but Jackie’s Warrior will likely benefit more in his second start off the layoff with an easier path to the early lead. Dream Shake may be just as competitive as he was last time, but I think he’ll have even more trouble reining in the front runner in this contest. Drain the Clock and Caddo River are both legitimate runners but have been doing their best running on the front end at longer distances. It’s unclear how they’ll respond when they’re forced to concede the early lead at a shorter distance, and that uncertainty hurts their value.
Race 4
Brooklyn Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt
7- Ajaweed
5- Musical Heart
9- Lone Rock
8- Tizamagician
This is a very tricky race with some evenly matched runners, so my attempt to crack the code is based entirely on trip handicapping. In their last respective starts, Musical Heart and Tizamagician won impressively with powerful performances loose on the lead. In this race, they’ll likely have to deal with one another, and such a duel becomes more and more detrimental as the distance of the race grows. With that in mind, I began to look for horses who could find a trip off the pace, had the necessary speed and could possibly handle the distance. I narrowed down my search to Ajaweed and Lone Rock and settled on the former runner for Todd Pletcher. He hasn’t won since his 2YO season in 2019, but he seemed to come alive in his last start when stretching out to 1 3/8 miles, earning a relatively massive 99 BSF in the Flat Out Stakes. He came within a length of loose front runner Musical Heart that day and I’m predicting that the pace scenario this time around will benefit him more than his front running foe. Unlike Ajaweed, Lone Rock has no aversions to the winner’s circle and has been cleaning up for some time now at the lower levels for Robertino Diodoro. For bettors who prefer him, I believe he’s an excellent option, but I ultimately went against him on the basis of a lack of familiarity with the Belmont dirt.
Race 5
Acorn Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, One Mile on the Dirt
6- Search Results
4- Dayoutoftheoffice
1- Travel Column
3- Miss Brazil (SCR)
Update: The 3, Miss Brazil, is scratched.
Last year, I brilliantly handicapped this race. Brilliant. I looked at it for 15 seconds and determined Gamine to be a runaway winner. I was one of tens of thousands of geniuses that day. This year’s running is a little more competitive than last year, but I believe that the favorite is qualified once more. Search Results lost her undefeated record and little else in a very brave performance in the Kentucky Oaks last time out, coming within a length of Malathaat, who was at one point considered for a run against the boys in the Belmont Stakes. I like when horses improve while stepping up in class and believe that she’s poised for a big run this time around. One could argue that Dayoutoftheoffice should have won the G2 Eight Belles in her 2021 debut, but the seven furlongs was probably a little uncomfortable and she may have needed a race. The mile suits her better and she can take a step forward in her second start off the layoff, though she’ll likely have to deal Miss Brazil to her inside early. Travel Column is a talented filly and could very well make a good showing here, but she was no match for Search Results last time out and will have to gain an overwhelming advantage over the shortened distance or Belmont going to have any chance on top.
Race 6
Jaipur Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
6- Bound For Nowhere
4- Fast Boat
1- Chewing Gum
8- Gregorian Chant (GB)
I’m unsure about almost every aspect of this race except my top selection. I’m all over Bound For Nowhere for the top spot based on his last start in the G2 Shakertown, in which the front runner showed a great deal of versatility closing from out of the clouds to defeat Imprimis in a very tight photo. The 7YO has been a monster over the Belmont turf in the past, and while he is 0 for 3 at six furlongs on the turf in his career, that statistic is deceiving. All three of those races were stakes races in Europe in 2017 and 2018, when Wesley Ward sent him over in his American invading style. If anything, his third place finish in the 2018 Diamond Jubilee at Ascot demonstrates a good deal of comfort with the distance. He may just be my pick of the day, though my reservations about every single other facet of the race gives me reason to pause. I get the sense that a long shot may be hiding somewhere in the Form for this race, and I feel that I should warn my readers at this point. I have a few handicapping strengths but long shot hunting has never been one of them. Fast Boat is a reasonable runner-up selection based on his previous form, but Chewing Gum and Gregorian Chant (GB) more closely resemble stabs on my part. Chewing Gum lacks class and recent form, but a familiarity with the Belmont turf and distance make him an interesting 20-1 shot. Meanwhile, Gregorian Chant (GB) has found an impressive turn of foot out west in his last three starts, and while I’m concerned about his prospects on much softer Belmont turf, I would likely be appropriately compensated for that concern.
Race 7
Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
1- Swiss Skydiver (SCR)
3- Letruska
2- Valiance (SCR)
5- Shedaresthedevil
Update: The 1, Swiss Skydiver, and 5, Shedaresthedevil, are scratched.
Among such evenly matched fillies, trip handicapping once again comes into play. In their last exchange, Swiss Skydiver struggled to chase Letruska in the G1 Apple Blossom, and the difficulty Monomoy Girl had doing the same demonstrates the potency of Lestruska’s front running effort. As a result, I’m prepared to conclude that the pace scenario was favorable to Letruska and unfavorable to Swiss Skydiver, who seems to struggle putting up prime efforts consistently anyway. In this race, Letruska will have to deal with Shedaresthedevil, the 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner with comparable front running ability. I don’t think the two favorites will run themselves out of the race, but I do think that the pace will set up more favorably for Swiss Skydiver to run the pair down in the stretch. The same opportunity will be present for Valiance as well, though I doubt her ability to contend with the 2020 Preakness winner on her best day. She beat Authentic for Christ’s sake, and Tiz the Law couldn’t even do that.
Race 8
Just a Game Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, One Mile on the Widener Turf
11- Blowout (GB) (SCR)
6- Pocket Square (GB)
10- Tamahere (Fr)
8- Althiqa (GB)
Update: The 11, Blowout (GB), is scratched.
It’s a Brown trifecta, you heard it here first folks. Blowout (GB) is an extremely attractive option based on his running style and going preferences. He possesses far more natural speed than any other runner here and doesn’t hesitate to go for the lead early. The speed figures are there anyway, but he’s never run worse than second at the distance and has taken well to the Belmont turf in the past. He’s the pick here but he’s not alone. There are plenty of reasons to fade Pocket Square (GB) at short odds, but the prospect of picking Chad Brown exclusively in one of the tougher handicapping tests on the card is too funny (and likely) for me to ignore. I think it’s very likely that he improves off his stateside debut at Keeneland, or else Brown wouldn’t have entered him in such deep waters. Tamahere (Fr) is another Chad Brown runner because bettors in New York must suffer. Listen, I’ve seen the guy pull off the superfecta in even more competitive races. This filly took a step forward in the G1 Jenny Wily last time out and should improve in her second start off the layoff here. Althiqa (GB) should get a prize for not being a Brown runner, but I do see merits in her form over her stablemate, Summer Romance. She seems more comfortable at a mile and Mike Smith was Charles Appleby’s preferred jockey on Rebel’s Romance before he was withdrawn from Belmont Stakes consideration.
Race 9
Metropolitan Handicap (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt
6- Knicks Go
1- Mischevious Alex
2- Dr Post
3- Silver State
There have been more wide open runnings of the Met Mile than this one, but good horses are always a pleasure to watch at Belmont. I’m not taking anything away from Knicks Go following a defeat in the Saudi Cup last time out, because he won’t be facing anyone like Mishriff or Charlatan this time around. He has an incredible turn of foot early that should be enough to wear down this short field. Mischevious Alex ran like a champion last time out in the G1 Carter Handicap, earning a 109 BSF with a dominant performance over a softer field. If not for Knicks Go, he would be a daunting runner here, but I can’t see him getting around the Pegasus World Cup winner in the stretch. Dr Post seems to love the Belmont dirt, but that isn’t quite enough in this spot, and Silver State may have a tough time making it six in a row this time around.
Race 10
Manhattan Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/4 Miles on the Inner Turf
4- Domestic Spending (GB)
10- Colonel Liam
5- Master Piece (Chi)
9- Gufo
I think the Manhattan Stakes will come down to the outcome of a budding turf rivalry. Domestic Spending (GB) and not-Brown-trained Colonel Liam had an epic dead heat contest last time out in the G1 Turf Classic, and while other horses in the race have earned faster figures, I don’t believe anyone outclasses this pair. Domestic Spending gets the nod because of a more favorable post position, but they literally couldn’t be separated last time out. Master Piece (Chi) is another Brown runner, and while we’re talking about this guy, if Tribhuvan (Fr) beats me after I’ve picked almost every horse Brown has in the running today, I’ll be mighty upset. Gufo is an extremely classy Clement runner that has an outside chance along with many others.
Race 11
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/2 Miles on the Dirt
Full analysis for the Belmont Stakes will be available in its own article at noon today. I’ll go through every horse and reveal my picks after more extensive analysis. I know, such a tease, right?
Update: I’m ahead of schedule. Full Belmont Stakes Analysis here.
Race 12
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, One Mile on the Widener Turf
5- English Breeze
3- Spungie
11- My Lips Are Sealed
9- Pandamom
Race 13
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, 1 1/8 Miles on the Inner Turf
1/1A- Price Talk/Value Engineering
11- Ballagh Rocks
9- Opry
3- Microsecond