Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 27, 2020

This is an excellent Belmont card, with four graded stakes races making up for lost time during the early days of the pandemic. However, heavy rain is in the forecast all day in Elmont, and I’ve had to create contingencies in certain turf races that may get rained off. This shouldn’t affect the two turf stakes though, which include some of the best horses in the country.

Race 1

$40,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This is a reasonably competitive race to start this Saturday card, but the best is yet to come. Rain is in the forecast, and I want to make it clear that my analysis (for this race and all future races) will be done on the assumption that this is a turf race. I include brief analysis in the case that it’s rained off below. My top four:

2- Sun Summers

This isn’t a very creative top selection, but this filly has simply shown too much ability to ignore. In her three-year-old season, she competed against tough competition wherever she went, running well at Gulfstream, Monmouth and Belmont. In her first race of the season in May, Jane Cibelli ran her against statebred competition and she had to run in between horses in the stretch. She enters a very soft spot here, as her speed figures are superior to most of the other runners. Irad Ortiz returns to ride, and if all goes well, she should be able to notch her second career win.

6- Peaceful Feeling

This filly’s calling card is consistency. She’s been 2-1 and 18-1 at various points in her career, but she always runs her race. It’s simply a matter of figuring out if her race is good enough. This race doesn’t appear to have much early speed, which should aid her on the front end. J K Sweezey doesn’t often ship horses to New York, which could indicate that he’s placing this one carefully. The addition of Javier Castellano is encouraging as well. Maybe she’ll have something left at the end.

8- Appreciate

This horse doesn’t win often, but based on her last race, she warrants consideration here. As I channel my inner Jonathan Kinchen, there wasn’t much this mare could do in her last race closing into slow fractions. The opening quarter mile was run in nearly 26 seconds, and she broke eighth in a nine-horse field. Despite this, she closed surprisingly well at 29-1. Eric Cancel returns to ride for trainer and owner John Toscano, and for whatever reason, these two work very well together. She may not topple the leaders here, but there’s reason to believe she outruns her odds.

3- Ideational

Her speed figures back in her three-year-old season demand consideration, but I just don’t love this filly in her first start off of a long layoff. Rob Atras is one of the foremost dirt trainers in New York, but his turf and layoff statistics leave something to be desired. Irad Ortiz could have returned to ride here, but instead chose fellow runner Sun Summers. Manny Franco isn’t the worst alternative, but it may just show that this one needs a race.

Order: 2 6 8 3

Order on Dirt: 10 5 4 9 (The 10, Make or Break, is scratched.)

I believe that the morning line favorite deserves the attention she’s getting, and is well positioned for Jane Cibelli, who shouldn’t bring her here if she wasn’t confident. Peaceful Ending should make a good showing here as well, as her early speed may prove to be an asset. Appreciate may outrun her odds based on her last performance, and I’m fading Ideational here in her first start off of a long layoff. If this race gets rained off the turf, then it suddenly becomes a nightmare to handicap, but the MTO starter shouldn’t have too much trouble.

 

Race 2

$25,000 Claiming for NY-Breds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

If every race were like this one, then I wouldn’t be very profitable as a handicapper. There are at least four runners that could win this race, and there are some I didn’t mention that could also run well. The potential rain only complicates matters further as I attempt to form a top four:

4- Invest

This horse has been in and out of barns at a dizzying pace this year. In January, he went from Contessa to Servis, until doping charges forced Servis out of the sport. He was transferred to Brad Cox’s barn during the layoff, and was immediately claimed by A C Avila in his first race back. Throughout all of this, he’s been competing fairly well, and Avila is very good with horses off the claim. He’s well placed here in his second start off of the layoff, and figures to sit behind the leaders early. It also doesn’t hurt that he seems to enjoy a wet track, should the occasion arise.

1- O Shea Can You See

Back in February, this horse was in three barns in a single week, having been trained by Rob Atras, claimed by Orlando Noda and then claimed again by Linda Rice. He’s been in Rice’s barn since, and he’s the type that always runs well. He’s well placed here while stepping into statebred competition, and is as worthy of consideration as any other runner in here.

5- Shamrock Kid

This gelding woke up a little this winter at Aqueduct after being dropped to the level he’s racing at here. Coming off of the layoff earlier this month, he ran an uncharacteristic race, spotting the field 12 lengths and making up mild ground to finish sixth. There’s a question of distance, as this one appears to be more effective in routes. However, he will get an extra furlong, and should it rain, this one’s chances improve even further.

6- Foolish Ghost

This horse rarely reaches the winner’s circle, but he’s quick. He’ll likely get an uncontested lead in this one, and it’s all a matter of figuring out if he’ll be there at the end. The addition of Irad Ortiz is encouraging, though this one doesn’t run as well on wet tracks in the case of rain.

Order: 4 1 5 6

I believe that any of these top four can win here, and I lack the foresight to confidently pick one of them. I’ve hesitantly chosen Invest, who I believe might go off at a price, despite the fact that he fits well here, has proven he has ability beyond whatever Servis was pumping into him, and has an affinity for a wet track if it comes up. The rest of the runners, however, are equally qualified, which should prove a chore for bettors.

 

Race 3

$50,000 Starter Allowance, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf

Nothing really jumped off the page at me here, but it’s an even race with talented runners, and those are always enjoyable for me, if only as a spectator. Just in case, I also provide selections for a wet dirt track below. My top four for the turf:

2- Kumar

In his first start off the layoff earlier this month, this gelding was in over his head and running at an unmanageable distance. He was being prepared for a future race, and I believe this is it. Rudy Rodriguez cuts him back to seven furlongs and recruits Irad Ortiz to ride. He’s never gone this short on the turf before, but he has the tactical speed to suggest he can handle it.

7- Yes and Yes

I understand the knocks on this horse, that his connections are unsuccessful and he hasn’t won a race since 2018. That being said, his performance in his first race off the layoff was the real deal. The four-year-old gelding dueled in the two path, which is always difficult, but managed to put away his adversary to the inside early, a runner that ended up finishing ninth. He was clear in the stretch but was run down and nipped at the wire by fellow runner Bourbon Currency. This horse may have had an uneven three-year-old campaign for a winless trainer, but he sure looked good in his four-year-old debut. He appeals to me as a value play.

8- Bourbon Currency

This gelding’s win in his last start marked his first trip to the winner’s circle since 2017. Cutting back to his preferred distance, he ran down fellow runner Yes and Yes in the stretch to win in a head bobbing photo finish. He’ll have to run an extra furlong today, but this horse usually does enough to contend regardless of the distance. The prospect of winning is a little harder to accept.

6- King’s Honor

On paper, this three-year-old seems a little overmatched against older horses in his first start off of a seven-month layoff. However, as a two-year-old, he contended with some of the best, which is why I feel the need to mention him over other contenders. In his first race, a maiden special weight at Saratoga, he finished sixth behind Structor (1st, 2019 BC Juvenile Turf). In his next start at Belmont, he finished fourth behind Jack and Noah and Turned Aside (1st and 2nd in the 2020 Sir Cat Stakes). After breaking his maiden against softer competition, he was again overwhelmed in the Pulpit Stakes, losing badly to some talented runners like Sole Volante, Irish Mias and King Guillermo. None of this suggests he won’t be overwhelmed against older horses, but he’s been well seasoned and Brittany Russell recruits Luis Saez to ride in his three-year-old debut.

Order: 2 7 8 6

Order on Dirt: 2 5 8 3 (The 5, Coach Villa, is scratched.)

I believe that Kumar is the best prepared for this race in his second start following a layoff, and Irad Ortiz should be able to guide him home regardless of the surface. Yes and Yes isn’t well connected, but as an individual, he’s performed as well as anyone and deserves consideration. Bourbon Currency should also run fairly well as he always does, and if the race moves to dirt, he still may have a say. If the 9, Albie, runs well, then I’ll be kicking myself for wasting space talking about King’s Honor, but I think he’s an interesting one to use underneath.

 

Race 4

$40,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Non-Winners of Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a fairly standard race at Belmont, but won’t be as attractive to bettors because of an obvious favorite. She should be tough here, and I didn’t try to go against her as I formed my top four:

3- Timely Tradition

This six-year-old mare has really found her stride as of late, as her last two starts were the best in her 27-race career. She ran exceptionally well in her last start at Oaklawn, showcasing her versatility by wiring the field as the favorite. Joel Rosario should give this runner a fair trip, and if so, she’ll do very well here if she’s on her game.

7- Bertranda

She’ll be the one to catch, and she’s proven tough recently. Two races back, she overwhelmed a field at Aqueduct, earning a 94 BSF on a track setting up for her running style. While Timely Tradition’s Beyers in the 80s seem consistent, that 94 is likely an outlier. Still, she showed a lot of resilience in her last start in a losing photo finish, and while there may be a few that try to run with her, she’s the only legitimate speed and could be a problem for late runners.

2- Puffery

This mare hasn’t won a race in a very long time, but she fits well here based on her speed figures. She often finds herself picking up minor purses, and there’s no reason she can’t do it here for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and jockey Junior Alvarado. The fact that she’ll be overbet to win may provide bettors with more valuable opportunities elsewhere.

1- Fierce Lady (SCRATCHED)

Coming off a layoff in her debut against older horses, I don’t believe Rudy Rodriguez is sending this runner out to win. Even still, she was very experienced as a two-year-old and competed well in a lot of good races. She’ll likely improve here, but Rodriguez is likely using this as a prep for some future race, which can be surmised by the presence of Romero Maragh as a jockey.

Order: 3 7 2 1 (Note: The 1, Fierce Lady, is scratched.)

Timely Tradition has been too good recently, and I won’t try to go against her as she ships back to New York to face statebreds. Bertranda should be dangerous on the front end and will be a problem for the rest of the field as they try to run her down in the stretch. Puffery is a solid runner but never seems interested in winning, while Fierce Lady may need a few starts at this level before she can compete in earnest against older horses.

 

Race 5

$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

Even for statebreds, this is a relatively weak field, which could benefit runners improving on their second start. I had some trouble equating opening company maiden races at Gulfstream with statebred maiden races at Aqueduct and Belmont, but did my best when forming a top four:

2- Farragut

In his first race off the forced layoff earlier this month, this colt ran very well and ended up in a four-horse photo finish. He was very wide in that one because of his post position, but he shouldn’t have that issue here from an inside post. He’s been improving with every race this year, and Reylu Gutierrez and Patrick Quick may just come home to score here.

5- Flying Finish

In his first start in Florida, this colt started slowly and made up some ground in the stretch to finish fifth. Races in the spring at Gulfstream are usually lacking, although this year’s pandemic schedule may have eschewed things a little. Irad Ortiz returns to ride this horse as he did in his first start, which is an encouraging sign that he saw something he liked last time. He can easily improve in his second start and enters statebred competition for the first time.

3- Stash My Money

This gelding has had his chances to break his maiden through 12 starts, and he’s difficult to endorse for the top spot. That being said, this runner had no chance in his first start off the layoff on the turf, and returns to his preferred surface and distance here. His performance at Aqueduct back in March was an improvement, and if he can build on it, he’ll have a say in what appears to be a pretty weak field.

7- Your Awesome Boss

This colt could very well perform well in his second start, as he did in his first start at Gulfstream. However, that race was originally supposed to be run on the turf, and I don’t like the idea that the trainer had this horse pointed towards a different surface at one point. It creates the impression that his adept performance on dirt was more accidental than intentional, and I’d prefer a horse with clearer direction.

Order: 2 5 3 7

Farragut has been getting better with every start and should get a better trip here than he did last time out while going wide and losing a photo. Flying Finish and Your Awesome Boss are both shipping from Florida, but I prefer the 5 because of the presence of Irad Ortiz and the muddled preparation for the 7. Stash My Money was not in a position to win in his last start and should improve here.

 

Race 6

$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf

This is a very promising field of runners trained by some of the very best trainers in the country. However, their potential won’t be realized until they break their maiden. I tried to find the one that might get the job done here:

5- Johnnypump

Chad Brown is excellent with first time turfers, and owner Peter Brant probably didn’t spend $1.1 million on a nag with a 397 Tomlinson. Javier Castellano climbs aboard on a runner that will likely have a say on first asking.

1- Propensity

This gelding always runs well but never quite strikes the front. His last race was particularly frustrating, as he had every opportunity to take over in the stretch but failed to do so. There’s always a chance that trainer Bill Mott will overcome with this runner, but I don’t want to pay to find out.

6- Ima Pharoah

Can this runner compete as effectively on turf? Can he finally get his first win? This horse has been excellent on the dirt but has been outduelled on several occasions for first place. Todd Pletcher switches him to the turf here, but I don’t know about that move after three straight dirt attempts. Even if he does take to the surface, he might just finish second again.

8- North Carolina

Shug McGaughey isn’t as effective with first time starters as Chad Brown, the best turf trainer in the country. However, it would be a little harsh to hold that against him. This one may show some ability on first asking and should probably take to the turf. The 370 Tomlinson doesn’t hurt either.

Order: 5 1 6 8

Order on Dirt: 6 8 5 2

The Chad Brown firster may enter the gate as the favorite, but I don’t see anything compelling enough here to go against him. Propensity and Ima Pharoah have valuable experience and have run well, but they both have their issues. Meanwhile, North Carolina is an enticing first time starter for bettors seeking more value.

 

Race 7

Vagrancy Handicap (G3), Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

I love watching good horses run, and this race has no shortage of them. There’s an impressive favorite accompanied by several accomplished runners that will attempt to beat her. My top four for this Grade 3 Race:

5- Come Dancing

She wasn’t brilliant in her first start this year, and that makes her vulnerable, but now she’s home. This six-year-old mare loves New York and Belmont, and it shows in her work tab. Her training instantly improved after she came back here, and while her most recent start was a disaster at Oaklawn, she can be excused for being on the front end in a race full of closers. I don’t think it will pay much, but I think this one is ready to go in her return.

1- Royal Charlotte

This filly didn’t appear to be her best in her first start of the year earlier this month. She had a lot of trouble handling a front runner in the stretch and was held at bay for second. However, such a performance may be more indicative of the layoff than the horse’s ability, and in her second start, it’s reasonable to expect an improvement. It’s very easy to trust this filly for a good run.

2- Mother Mother (SCRATCHED)

So far this year, this mare hasn’t been able to match some of her better performances from last year, but that may not be her fault. In her last start, she was wide around the turn and managed to make up some ground on an uncontested early leader. In her third start of the year, this runner may ease back into form for Bob Baffert, who continues to enter her often and confidently.

3- Chalon

This mare was very talented last year, and based on those performances, she fits well here. That being said, I’d like to see her run a race off of the layoff before I support her against a high-caliber field like this one.

Order: 5 1 2 3 (The 2, Mother Mother, is scratched.)

This is a very evenly matched field, but I believe that Come Dancing is just a shade better. Royal Charlotte always runs her race, although it doesn’t always prove sufficient against every field. Mother Mother appears to be better than her recent speed figures, or else Baffert would have put her on the shelf by now. On the other hand, Chalon is coming off a break and may just need a start.

 

Race 8

New York Stakes (G2), 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf

Track officials will do everything in their power to keep this race on the turf, and for good reason. These fillies and mares are some of the best fillies on turf in the country right now, with all seven having already been nominated for Breeders’ Cup consideration this fall. My job in forming a top four is differentiating between seven immensely talented horses, and it was a task I thoroughly enjoyed:

6- Mrs. Sippy (SCRATCHED)

This filly is coming off of a long layoff, but Graham Motion wouldn’t enter her unless he was certain that she was in condition. She raced in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mare Turf after two very good starts in New York. A championship win was beyond her, but she belonged in that field. At Belmont in October, she just missed while finishing second to Sistercharlie, one of the greatest fillies of the decade. There are some excellent horses for her to run down off of a layoff, but a Sistercharlie-like threat doesn’t exist here. 

1- Call Me Love (GB)

In her North American debut earlier this month, this filly was very impressive, finishing second behind Rushing Fall with a 99 BSF. She’s proven she can handle the Belmont turf, and Christophe Clement can do no wrong at this meet so far. Her running style makes her a tough one to run down and this will also be her first start at a distance she excelled at while racing in Italy. This filly is very dangerous.

7- Mean Mary

This filly has been on a tear down at Gulfstream for Graham Motion, moving from optional claiming competitor to multiple graded stakes winner in four months. Part of the reason I have this horse finishing third is simply that it may be too much too soon. The distance in this race will actually be a cutback for her as she tries to wire them, and she’ll be trying a new turf track against horses that have already proven they can handle it. She’s riding a very hot hand at the moment, but I doubt the odds will reflect her status as a bit of a wild card play.

3- My Sister Nat (Fr)

I have no interest in excluding Chad Brown from consideration in a turf stakes. This mare was improving at the end of last year, and Brown knew that when he entered her in the G3 Long Island after three losing efforts at the optional claiming level. She ran well to finish second by a neck. It’s feasible to expect that he anticipates another improvement in this race off the layoff, as he continues to step her up in class despite the fact that she always appears to be a step behind on paper. In her last start last year, she was flying in the stretch, and she’ll likely try to do the same thing here.

Order: 6 1 7 3 (Note: The 6, Mrs. Sippy, is scratched.)

Graham Motion feels that Mrs. Sippy is ready for this race, or else he wouldn’t enter her. I’ll go with him on this one. Call Me Love is an excellent runner for Clement that may just get the best trip in this race, which makes her very tough given her natural ability. Mean Mary is trying a lot of new things at once, but she’s been on a tear recently and this isn’t as much of a reach as one would think. My Sister Nat fills out the top four because Chad Brown is as omniscient as he is completely soul crushing for bettors in the chaotically beautiful world of New York turf racing.

 

Race 9

True North Stakes (G2), Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

In 1987, Groovy won this race to break his own record for the highest Beyer Speed Figure in modern horse racing history. It’s unlikely that anyone here will notch a 134, but that shouldn’t detract from the talent and speed on display in this popular sprint stakes. My top four:

7- Promises Fulfilled (SCRATCHED)

This Dale Romans horse may have had the toughest schedule in horse racing in 2019. Beginning with a trip to Dubai, he ran in six graded stakes races at five different tracks in seven months. In that time, the list of horses he competed against is astounding: X Y Jet, Matera Sky, Imperial Hint, Mitole, McKinzie, Thunder Snow, Warrior’s Club, Engage, Whitmore, and more. To begin his 2020 season, he’s both the most well seasoned and fastest in this field. He’ll have to fight for the lead up front, which has hurt his chances in the past. However, he’s been extremely quick in the morning at Belmont and should be properly prepared as the best horse in this field.

5- Yorkton

Alright, I’ll begrudgingly make some concessions regarding this horse. No, he has never won a race on the dirt. No, his speed figures in the spring weren’t at a level that would win this race. Yes, he’ll likely have to try to outduel one of the best sprinters in the country on the front end. No, Dylan Davis isn’t exactly a horse whisperer in graded stakes competition. After two weeks of official analysis though, I now have to come to terms with the fact that Graham Motion is my favorite trainer, because his horses regularly leap off the page at me. This horse is winless on dirt, but his last two starts were second place finishes to Vekoma and Global Campaign, respectively. His speed figures weren’t quite strong enough back then, but they weren’t far off either. He’ll have to contend early with Promises Fulfilled to his outside and Diamond King to his inside, but he’s proven that he can duel and still run well. Dylan Davis is on the horse because he rode him in those two starts at Gulfstream. Most importantly, Motion believes he belongs in this race. That’s enough for me to go on when considering this runner as a viable long shot.

3- Wicked Trick

At one point in this gelding’s life, he was a 16-race maiden. Those days are now long gone. After claiming him for $16,000 at Saratoga, Linda Rice has progressively stepped this runner up in class and he’s responded each time. He was on a six-race winning streak when he was finally stopped in the Stymie Stakes this past March, finishing fifth behind fellow runner Diamond King. He returns here for his first race off the layoff, and with a lot of pace up front, this one could be in a prime position to pick up the pieces and score an improbable graded stakes win under Jose Lezcano.

8- Firenze Fire

For the sake of my faith in the sport, I hope Firenze Fire runs well today. Earlier this month, he ran in the G1 Carter Handicap, his first race for new trainer Kelly Breen. As he warmed up in the paddock, the fears of every horse racing fan were confirmed by a succinct statement from NYRA analyst Maggie Wolfendale: “He just doesn’t look the same.” 

In his time under former trainer Jason Servis, who was arrested earlier this year on doping charges, I placed more bets on this horse than I have on any other. Win or lose, he was a consummate professional that guaranteed a good showing. Over the course of his career, he’s won nearly $2 million in purse money. In his first race without Servis, he performed abysmally in one of the worst starts of his career. Any kind of an improvement in this race would demonstrate that a racehorse is more than what he’s being fed by his current trainer. Based on his last race though, it would be very difficult to make that bet.

Order: 7 5 3 8 (The 7, Promises Fulfilled, is scratched.)

This race doesn’t set up well for Promises Fulfilled, as he’ll likely have to fight for the lead from the very beginning. That being said, he is the best runner in this field, and should be prepared despite the circumstances. Yorkton will likely join him to his inside, and despite some obvious drawbacks on paper, I love Motion’s bold placement for this one and will trust his judgment. Wicked Trick may just get the best trip here, as he figures to sit well off the pace and capitalize on a strong pace up front. This is the type of race that would normally set up for Firenze Fire as well, but what I once considered certain with this horse is now unfortunately little more than hope.

 

Race 10

Just A Game Stakes (G1), 1 Mile on the Widener Turf

The top runners in this field represent the best the United States has to offer when it comes to turf racing. As usual, Chad Brown has this race surrounded, making it far more fun to spectate than to bet. My top four:

6- Uni

This mare is a machine. In her last start of 2019, she beat the boys and turned the tables on fellow runner Got Stormy in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It was the perfect end to a spectacular four-race stretch, and she looked no worse for wear by the end. She returns here in her first start of 2020 for Chad Brown. She’s 3-for-4 on the Belmont turf, she’s 7-for-8 (!) at the distance, and Joel Rosario returns to ride. She probably didn’t need a strong pace up front in order to close, but it’s likely that she’ll be getting one anyway. As a fan of the sport, I want to see this six-year-old return strong.

4- Newspaperofrecord (Ire)

Here’s a strange thought: What if this filly is simply unstoppable on yielding turf? That seems like a strange explanation for her career thus far, but technically, there’s nothing in her past performances to disprove it. If we’re setting conspiracy theories aside, this Chad Brown filly was excellent in three starts (all on yielding turf) as a two-year-old and ended her 2018 season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Many looked forward to her three-year-old season, but she wasn’t quite the same, losing as a beaten favorite in three straight starts. She took nearly a year off before returning in the G3 Intercontinental earlier this month. Now a four-year-old (and back on yielding turf), she finally started to live up to expectations, easily wiring the field and recording a career-high 103 BSF. She won’t have such an easy lead this time around and the waters are a little deeper today. That being said, the last time she was running this well, she was pretty tough to catch. Also, for what it’s worth, there’s rain in the forecast in Elmont. 

1- Beau Recall

I have some faith in this mare based on her 2020 debut in May. In the G3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs, she had a very difficult trip and still ran well under the circumstances. It’s not everyday a horse finishes ninth by two and one quarter lengths. She seemed to prefer a mile during her 2019 season and should get a better trip here. Brad Cox is up against it with Chad Brown competing against him from every angle, but I think this mare still has something left in the tank.

2- Got Stormy

A few months ago, this mare would have been dangerous in a spot like this. She belongs to a very small group of horses that have defeated fellow runner Uni, and she was exceptional in defeat in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Mile. However, since that race, she’s taken a step back from her incredible five-year-old season and could even be considered somewhat erratic. She could improve in her second start off of the layoff, and Mark Casse has handled her as well as he possibly can. However, it’s unclear if her best performance is still good enough to contend at this level anymore.

Order: 6 4 1 2

If Uni preserves her form from last year, she’ll manage to run down this stout field in the stretch. Newspaperofrecord appears to be the only one that can beat her while trying to wire them, but she may be compromised by other early speed types up front. I think Beau Recall still has something to say in a race like this, while I feel that Got Stormy would benefit from some class relief.

 

Race 11

$40,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

I hope this race doesn’t get rained off, because it’s very interesting. A bettor could make a case for several in here, but they’re all different cases. It’s a very diverse field with a lot of angles to play, making it a fun one to handicap, as I did here:

8- Brice

Now, I can’t be sure, but I’d imagine that this gelding’s last start as a two-year-old didn’t go to plan, as he bolted on the first turn and was pulled up in the backstretch. I’m choosing to toss that race because I really like Jonathan Thomas and trust Javier Castellano. In his first start at Delaware Park, he did everything but win in what turned into a two horse race with the favorite. He returns here at three, and drops to the maiden claiming level, a successful angle for Thomas. This horse should improve after seven months off, and if he does, he’ll be tough here.

9- Montauk Summer

Christophe Clement has been scratching a lot of his first time starters lately, but when they reach the track, they’ve been running very well. This colt has been running reasonably well in the morning and is clearly being pointed to the turf. Joel Rosario signs on to ride and this one could make an impact in his first start.

3- Winning Factor

This colt hasn’t won in thirteen starts and the last race set up well for him, but he might have won if not for a nightmarish trip. He almost fell on his face while clipping heels in the stretch and still managed to re-rally for third. He returns to Belmont here for David Donk, and Jose Ortiz is a significant jockey upgrade for this runner. As a competent older horse, he could finally break through under the right circumstances.

12- Eagles Palace

Bill Mott has been a little cold lately, and I struggle to understand the switch to dirt for this gelding in his last start. He seemed to be doing well on the turf and was beaten badly as the favorite trying to switch surfaces. He returns to the grass here and Junior Alvarado returns to ride, having ridden him as a two-year-old. It’s somewhat concerning to see Joel Rosario leave to ride Montauk Summer, but he’s still a competent runner in here.

Order: 8 9 3 12

Order on Dirt: Probably the 12, but it would be humane and decent to skip this one.

In his three-year-old debut, Brice will drop into maiden claiming competition for Jonathan Thomas. With Javier Castellano aboard, I feel confident. Montauk Summer is a first time starter for Christophe Clement, and that alone makes him a threat.

Winning Factor had a terrible trip last time out and should improve with less trouble this time around. Eagles Palace has been handled inconsistently as of late, but returns to the turf with a chance here.