Belmont Analysis: Saturday, June 20, 2020

Today is like Christmas for every New York handicapper. It’s Belmont Stakes Day, which means a stacked card featuring some of the best talent in the country. Let’s jump right into it.

Race 1

$75,000 Maiden Claiming, One Mile on the Widener Turf

This is a meager opener to an epic day of racing, but there are some interesting ones in here. I consider my top selection to be the clear first choice, but some Brown firsters, some consistent competitors and a vaguely interesting long shot also interest me in here:

8- Scanno

This nine-race maiden can be forgiven for an aversion to the winner’s circle, as he’s spent most of his career outrunning his odds in very deep maiden special weights. This colt’s first real chance of winning came in his last start, and a loss there wasn’t from lack of effort, as she did everything she could to run down the eventual winner. Thomas Albertrani is a different trainer altogether when he recruits Javier Castellano to ride, and this one might finally be in the perfect spot to break through.

1- Conglomerate (SCRATCHED)

1A- Traffic Pattern

Bettors will get two first time starters for the price of one here, and they both happen to be trained by Chad Brown. Usually, it would take some luck to pick between the two of them before placing a wager, but that isn’t an issue here given the entry. Brown is good at everything and that includes preparing his horses for first time starts. One of them would be dangerous enough, but getting both of them is too good to pass up. On another note, if one of them happens to be scratched, that makes the remaining half of the entry all the more dangerous.

7- Holy Emperor

Because I feel like talking about a ridiculous long shot in the fourth place slot, I had to make a choice between this one and the 11, Turn of Events, for third place. While Holy Emperor’s running style may not be advantageous in this race, I’ve decided to take a chance because of the presence of jockey Luis Saez. This colt’s only turf race back in May was a decent showing, taking an early lead and fighting back for third as two closers picked up the pieces up the middle of the track. Jimmy Jerkens is cold at Belmont so far this meet, but this horse stands a chance to do some running here.

5- Tiz Envy

I’ve already admitted that I’m reaching a little with this Amira Chichakly trainee, but I can’t help myself. In this colt’s first race off the layoff, Cancel was simply unable to handle him. At 54-1 odds he scampered off to a ridiculous nine-length lead early on in a turf race at a mile and a quarter and was exhausted late in the stretch. He looked silly out there, but as a prep for this race, it was actually an interesting performance. It demonstrated improvement as a three-year-old, and while he’ll have to fight for the lead this time, he’ll likely have the rail to do it. A mile is a more appropriate distance for him, and maybe the connections were waiting for this race to launch a legitimate bid.

Order: 8 1/1A 7 5 (Update: The 1, Conglomerate, is scratched.)

I think Scanno will run very well here in what I consider to be one of his first real opportunities to win. Meanwhile, the Brown first time starters will provide a 2-for-1 deal for a trainer very successful with debuting horses (along with every other kind of horse). Some fair horses may fight for show money, and a slightly intriguing long shot fills out my top four.

 

Race 2

Woody Stephens Stakes (G1), Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

Last year’s Woody Stephens Stakes was an 11-horse free-for-all won by 19-1 shot Hog Creek Hustle. This year’s rendition will be markedly different, with only five horses preparing for a more hard hitting kind of race. Four horses in this five-horse field are among the best three-year-old sprinters in the country. It’ll be fun to watch, but it sure won’t be as much fun to bet. These competitors are nearly indistinguishable and they should all be fighting in the stretch:

2- Meru

This race features such evenly matched horses when they all run their race, so I’ll go with the one that had trouble in his last start for my top pick. Back in May at Churchill, this colt struggled to get going in the stretch because he was caught in between horses. He eventually straightened out and made his run, but simply ran out of space while finishing third behind fellow runner Echo Town. In a race with such high-quality runners, sometimes it comes down to getting a trip, and this one figures to stalk behind a blazing speed duel up front. If he’s in the clear in the stretch, he has as good a chance as any.

1- No Parole

The connections learned that this horse was a sprinter in the Rebel two races back in his only poor start. They adjusted well, entering him in a six furlong optional claimer the following month. He was brilliant in that spot, fighting for the lead early before putting them away with ease. The horses that contended with him early finished last and second to last, a testament to his superiority over the weaker field. If he wants the lead here though, he’ll have to duel for it, and he’s still untested in that scenario. He does get an edge here by drawing a position at the rail, an advantageous spot when gunning for the lead against others. His competitors, namely Echo Town, would have to be plainly superior to outrun him on the turn, and I don’t believe that’s the case.

3- Mischevious Alex

John Servis wouldn’t enter this one in such a stout field if he wasn’t ready to fire off of the layoff. There’s no question in my mind that this colt will make a run. His race in the Gotham back in March was stellar, as he never really got a breather and still managed to hold the field at bay in the stretch. He can win this one, but I’d like to see him run a race off the layoff. I don’t doubt that he’s ready to go, but this would be a tall order for any horse. There are also Derby aspirations to consider here, which might indicate that six furlongs isn’t the end goal.

4- Echo Town

His last race was fantastic, and simply bolsters his status as a strong contender here. He dueled the entire way, and while his early competitors went on to finish fifth and sixth in a seven-horse field, he continued to fight gamely in the stretch to take the win in a classy optional claimer at Churchill. If this horse were on the rail, he would be my top selection, but he’ll have to duel again here, this time against other horses of his caliber. Fighting two or three wide for the lead around the turn will be challenging, though I still expect him to be close at the end.

Order: 2 1 3 4

This is almost never the case, but in this one, the top four horses are interchangeable for the top spot. They’re all equally talented, coming out of extremely impressive performances, and in a perfect world, they’d all finish within a length of one another. The track is the ultimate simulation, and it’ll come down to who gets the best trip.

 

Race 3

$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

I would consider this race one to spectate as well. Don’t fret, there’s a lot of racing left. The two most likely (and least profitable) runners are incredibly sensible and likely won’t have trouble handling the rest of this field. You’ll notice this perceived drop off when comparing my notes for first with my notes for fourth:

6- Indian Pride

Now isn’t the time to get cute. This filly was brilliant in two starts last year and leaps off the page as a future stakes winner. In her debut, she lived up to the hype at Saratoga, dominating a maiden special weight from start to finish to earn a 90 BSF. In her next start, the G2 Raven Run, she broke slowly and had to rush to the lead, joining a duel in between two horses. She prevailed over both of them but didn’t have enough to stave off a pair of closers. She returns here as a four-year-old for Chad Brown, who’s probably had this race picked out for a long time. This isn’t a lock with a quality runner directly to this filly’s outside, but it’s not far off.

7- Mrs. Danvers

I believe there’s only one filly in this race that can defeat Indian Pride, as Mrs. Danvers makes her three-year-old debut for Shug McGaughey. In her maiden win last August, she was ridden confidently by Joel Rosario, and despite finding some trouble in the stretch, managed to run down Finite (future winner of the G2 Golden Rod and G2 Rachel Alexandra) at the wire. While I’m confident that McGaughey will have this horse ready off of the layoff, I’m even more confident that Brown will have Indian Pride ready as well. She’ll likely improve from two to three, but it’s unclear if that progression will be enough.

1- Palomita (SCRATCHED)

This filly represents a return to the mortal side of the sport. She earned an 80 BSF in her last start while dueling. However, despite gaining the rail at the start, she lost that duel to the outside runner, Sadie Lady, who lost me some money recently in her first start off the layoff. She’s also coming off of a layoff, and while she’s the only horse in the race that might have a remote chance of running with Indian Pride early, she’s also trained by Chad Brown. I don’t expect the best trainer in New York to run himself out of a race, and this filly will likely suffer as a result.

2- Carrizo (SCRATCHED)

At certain points last year, this David Cannizzo trainee may have actually fit here, even against the two favorites. That time has passed, however, as this filly will have to improve dramatically in her second start off the layoff to have a chance here.

Order: 6 7 1 2 (Update: The 1, Palomita, and the 2, Carrizo, are scratched.)

It doesn’t take a genius to come up with this one. Indian Pride showed a world of talent in her three-year-old season while Mrs. Danvers was promising at Saratoga at two. They’ll likely lock this one out against a field that’s simply a bit overwhelmed.

 

Race 4

Pennine Ridge Stakes (G2), One Mile on the Widener Turf

The 2019 Pennine Ridge went to one of the best-named horses I’ve ever encountered. Demarchelier won fashionably while stepping up steeply in class. In this rendition, there are some former Juvenile Breeders’ Cup runners mixing it up with some recent allowance winners. An interesting race with some evenly matched contenders:

3- Proven Strategies

If we’re picking between former Breeders’ Cup participants coming out of an ungraded stakes at Gulfstream, then I’ll take a small chance on this front runner trained by Mark Casse. The pace held well in his last race, but he proved to be much better than his counterparts before getting run down by a superior closer. This race should have a fair bit of pace up front, but not so much that I’m too concerned he’ll fold. This colt has come alive recently, and I think he’ll have a say in the end.

1- Decorated Invader

This colt was very impressive in his first start as a three-year-old, improving massively to take down a weak stakes field at Gulfstream. The race set up well for closers, but his performance was probably more a result of his ability than the track. His placement in second place isn’t a knock on that ability; I simply think he’ll have more trouble trying to run down quality front runners like my top selection, and his consideration as an overwhelming morning line favorite makes it tempting to try and beat him.

6- Maroon Maniac (SCRATCHED)

Talk about ambitious placement. After breaking his maiden in a race taken off the turf at Tampa Bay Downs back in February, Jonathan Thomas ships him up to New York to take a shot at graded stakes competition. On paper, he’s out of his league. His only turf start earned a meager 71 BSF, but the horse that defeated him, Domestic Spending, improved to win an allowance up here earlier this month. Maybe this is too much too soon, but I don’t think Jonathan Thomas would enter this colt and recruit Javier Castellano if he didn’t have an outside chance.

2- Venezuelan Hug

This is another big step up in class for a colt trained by Danny Gargan. His last race, an optional claimer at Gulfstream, was visually impressive, as he was the only horse closing in a paceless race. He earned an 85 BSF and Luis Saez climbs aboard. My only knock is that a deep closer like this doesn’t always appreciate a cutback in distance, especially when he’s stepping into deeper waters. He needed every bit of distance to notch a win in the last one, and at a mile against some professionals in here, he might struggle to move in time for the top spot.

Order: 3 1 6 2 (Update: the 6, Maroon Maniac, is scratched.)

Proven Strategies and Decorated Invader should both probably end up at 2-1, and I’ll take a shot with the 3 for the top spot. He’s struggled in the past in big spots like this, but he’s improved greatly in recent performances and may just break through. I put two colts stepping up sharply in class in the third and fourth spots, though I believe they have an outside chance here as well.

 

Race 5

$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This race won’t be the most memorable on the card, but there are some runners in here with a lot of potential. My top four:

2- O’Trouble

This colt’s only race came back in his two-year-old season, when he finished third in a Saratoga maiden special weight behind Belmont Stakes contender Tap It to Win and Complexifier, who went on to have a solid two-year-old campaign. He ran gamely in that race and for all of the trouble Anthony Dutrow has, he’s managed to prepare one winner off of a 180+ day layoff in four attempts. John Velasquez decides to come back to ride, and this one stands to improve as a three-year-old.

7- Rare Stripe

If McGaughey was still training this horse, I’d feel much more comfortable. The switch to Jack Sisterson strikes me as concerning for this horse’s chances today, given the trainer’s poor stats with layoffs and newcomers to his barn. His only start in March, a fourth place finish behind Belmont contender Dr Post, was solid and earned him an 80 BSF, while a bullet work shows that he’s ready to go.

8- Happy Saver

Is Super Saver the most forgettable Kentucky Derby winner of the decade? No, it’s Always Dreaming. Anyway, this son of the 2010 Derby winner makes his first start for Todd Pletcher. It’s a difficult spot for a first time starter to land, but Pletcher usually gets them ready, and this one may have a say on his first trip around the track against others.

1- Mutakaamil

It’s very rare to see Chad Brown struggle with a horse, but that’s the case here. Much like locusts, this four-year-old colt appears a few times every year to try and break his maiden. He takes a lot of money, usually runs credibly, but comes up short. This past February, Manny Franco gave him a trip I didn’t consider possible: getting caught four wide while dueling for the lead in a four-horse race. I’m going to forgive that one and he’s the only four-year-old in this race, but even still, he’ll have to return to his 2019 form off the layoff to have any chance here.

Order: 2 7 8 1

I’m going with Dutrow’s runner in this one. It came down to the 2 and the 7, and the trainer switch to Sisterson has scared me away a little. Pletcher’s first time starter is in there with a chance while Brown’s struggling maiden sneaks into the top four.

 

Race 6

Wonder Again Stakes (G3), One Mile on the Widener Turf

This is a somewhat underwhelming rendition of this G3 race. It’s a very talented field, but it’s also a little sparse with only five runners. All of the horses in the race are live, so I’ll be covering them in post position order before listing my top four:

1- Speaktomeofsummer

This filly ran incredibly well in a stakes at Aqueduct to get her second win at 17-1. She wasn’t quite as fast as some of the other ones in here at two, but the speed figure doesn’t matter as much when the horse is that impressive visually. At this point I’m trying to find a problem with her. I mean, she’s not as classy as others in here, but I don’t mind that all that much. Closing might be an issue in a race without any serious pace, but in a five-horse field, they should all be within range. Clement brings this one back as a three-year-old with lasix, and she’ll probably go off at a price, despite the fact that she fits well here based on that stakes win at two.

2- Sweet Melania

At two, this filly was nearly unstoppable after switching to turf. Her win in the G2 Jessaman was particularly impressive, a five and a half length romp against decent competition. She took the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf before getting run down in the stretch, finishing ahead of fellow runner Selflessly in the process. There’s no reason to think that Todd Pletcher won’t have this one ready, and she’ll be tough in the stretch.

3- Highland Glory

One of two runners in here with experience as a three-year-old, this filly was impeded in the stretch in her last start at Gulfstream and kept coming, getting up for second late. She’s another one that usually needs a pace to run into, but in a five horse field, that dynamic usually doesn’t matter as much. Unlike some of the others in here, I know what I’m getting in this runner. I’m just unsure if others in here will improve to such a point that they can surpass her.

4- Antoinette

I’m not exactly sure why they tried this filly so many times on the dirt. She’s run creditably on that surface, but her maiden win last October on the turf remains her only win and most impressive performance. Dueling on the outside the whole way, she outran her early running adversary and held off late runners in the stretch to get her first win. Trainer Bill Mott usually knows how to place his horse, and his hesitation to return this filly to her winning surface is somewhat puzzling. She has an outside chance here, though I prefer others more.

5- Selflessly

I saw this filly last September, when she defeated talented two-year old Crystalle to break her maiden in the G2 Miss Grillo. She didn’t disgrace herself in the Breeders’ Cup, but was outrun by other runners in the stretch, including fellow runner Sweet Melania. Chad Brown is very trustworthy on the turf, so this one will likely come back strong as a three-year-old. It’ll be hard to figure out which one will have improved the most, however.

Order: 2 3 5 1

This race isn’t very appealing, as it’s nearly impossible to determine which horse will emerge strongest off of their respective layoffs. I’ll go with Sweet Melania because I believe that her natural speed will be an asset in a race with little pace up front. Highland Glory has experience at three, which will be valuable against horses coming off the bench. Selflessly will give a strong account of herself, but she wasn’t good enough to beat Sweet Melania last year and I have no reason to think she’ll do so now.

 

Race 7

$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

This race isn’t exactly a race of champions, but it might just have a vulnerable favorite. Many handicappers would prefer the latter anyway, although my top four isn’t as creative as I’d expected:

4- Strongerthanuknow

I don’t believe that this filly is as capable as My Sassy Sarah, but I do believe she’s catching her on the right day. With a race under her belt, this one figures to improve second off the layoff for Jorge Duarte after easily breaking her maiden going this distance.

8- My Sassy Sarah

This filly represents the class of the field, having run fairly in the G2 Miss Grillo last year. She prefers six furlongs and will be tough. That being said, she’ll probably be overbet and Michelle Nevin doesn’t always do well off of long layoffs like this.

11- Canarsie Angel

Miceli and Davis on the Belmont Stakes card? Hey, I don’t know, at least they’re catching a vulnerable field here. Back in November, Miceli put Davis on this horse when she broke her maiden at 7-1. She hasn’t raced since and will come back here as a three-year-old. It’s impossible to know how much she’ll improve, but Miceli’s going to his favorite rider for the task.

5- Winifred J

This horse has an aversion to the winner’s circle, but the four-year-old always brings some speed. She really should have been given the winter off, but ran well enough on dirt. She returned to the turf earlier this month and tired late, a habit of this one. Still, Castellano returns to ride a horse he seems to work well with, having led her to her only win back in September.

Order: 4 8 11 5

My Sassy Sarah defeated Strongerthanuknow when they were two, but this is a very different scenario. The 4 has a race under her belt and seems prepared to step up to face winners at a distance she prefers. My Sassy Sarah is talented and classy, but may just need a race. Two prices fill out my top four so that I don’t feel silly picking all chalk in this wide open race.

 

Race 8

Acorn Stakes (G1), One Mile on the Dirt

This is a good race to get stolen away by those sly Californians. Baffert brings a runner to this race that might be overwhelming, though there are still a few to like despite the uphill battle:

1- Gamine

Why does Bob Baffert have a billion horses and every other good trainer only gets a couple hundred or so? That doesn’t seem fair. This horse laid waste to one of those terrible four horse fields at Santa Anita to break her maiden, and her next start was even more impressive. Instead of trying to duel the early speed, this one took an easier route and simply outran them. She was then seriously tested in the stretch by Speech, who went on to take second in the Santa Anita Oaks in her next race. Speech tried to get past her but was denied in a very game performance deserving of the 98 BSF. This filly is going to break from the rail and take an uncontested lead, and I’d like to see someone try to run her down. 

2- Lucrezia

Julien Leparoux does not have a mount today in the Belmont Stakes, nor does he have one in the Woody Stephens, Wonder Again, or Jaipur. Leparoux is here for one ride and one ride only on Lucrezia for trainer Arnaud Delacour before he travels back to Kentucky for Sunday’s races at Churchill. The plot thickens. This horse is a step slower than the main threat, but I think there may be a chance she takes another step forward today. There’s no shame in finishing behind Swiss Skydiver, and she’s coming off a very quick workout as she enters this race in her first start off the layoff. If you were Leparoux, would you travel from Kentucky to New York if you didn’t think you had a shot at the $300,000 purse? In my opinion, his biggest mistake will be taking the ride back to Kentucky after the race.

4- Causal

This filly has raced more recently than most, and hasn’t yet made a mistake in two starts for trainer Steve Asmussen. She’s lightly raced, but not in the same way that Gamine is lightly raced. Gamine has experience routing and has been extremely impressive doing it. This one still has a lot to prove in terms of class and distance, and if the favorite runs her race again, she might even have to pick up the pace a little.

7- Perfect Alibi

I won with this runner in the G2 Adirondack last summer, and from there, the filly had a respectable two-year-old campaign. She’s been on the shelf since the Breeders’ Cup, and Mark Casse’s bold placement of his filly is encouraging. However, this is a tough spot in which to enter off of such a long break, and she’ll have to improve as a three-year-old anyway.

Order: 1 2 4 7

I don’t think Baffert is messing around with this one. Gamine figures to be the speed of speed, get the lead to herself and hold it for as long as she needs. The 2 is interesting here as one that could potentially improve, as well as the 7 in her first race as a three-year-old.

 

Race 9

Jaipur Stakes (G1), Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

The Jaipur’s been invaded by California trainers. Miller, Drysdale and O’Neill are all shipping their horses into New York, and at six furlongs, a few horses may be more vulnerable than the tote board will show. I’m presenting all of the entrants in this one before I unveil my top four below:

1- Kanthaka

Remember yesterday, when I referred to Graham Motion as a bold and creative trainer, and then one of his horses finished second at 28-1? Wasn’t that fun? Well, the mad scientist is back at it again with this one. This gelding’s been laid off for more than a year and only has one career start on the turf. Does Motion put him in a dirt stakes? Does he give him a prep race, some sort of allowance? No, he enters him into a Grade 1 turf sprint at a turf distance he’s never run against Breeders’ Cup quality horses. I like to mess around with Motion’s horses when I find a weak field, but this a different matter altogether.

2- Oleksandra

Can the mare run against the boys? I’d say so. Lately, she’s been racing at shorter sprint distances, which would be a concern for me if she hadn’t demonstrated ability with the distance back when she was merely an allowance horse. That first race off the layoff was excellent despite finishing second, and should prepare her well for this one. She’ll also be returning to a track she’s loved in the past, and there are a few in here that may not run to their odds.

3- Texas Wedge

The only thing I know about Peter Miller is that he’s not Bob Baffert. The following is a conversation I’ve had in the backyard at Belmont several times:

“You know, that California trainer.”

“Baffert?”

“No no, the other one.”

“Oh, you mean Hollendorfer. You know he’s not there anymore, right?”

“Nah I knew that, that ain’t it either.”

“Who then? O’Neill? Miller?”

“That’s the one!”

Anyway, this gelding is coming off a career-high 100 BSF performance in a fourth place finish in the G3 Daytona. He looks good on paper and seems prepared to fire, but I’d feel more comfortable if he was a little more familiar with this sprint distance. He hasn’t raced more than five and a half furlongs on the turf since 2018, and there are others in here that might take to it better. 

4- Pure Sensation

This horse flies on the front end, and when that doesn’t happen, you get his Breeders’ Cup performance back in November. This gelding broke a step slow, and lost his chance without the lead. It worked out well for me because I happened to have Belvoir Bay that day, but looking back, I can forgive the bad start from this reliable front runner. Irad Ortiz will be sure to get him out of the gate, at which point he may be alone out there. At some point, this nine-year-old will stop running, but it’s hard to bet on that until it happens.

5- Stubbins

I’m willing to bet, albeit cautiously, that this Doug O’Neill runner won’t handle the six furlongs as well as he has shorter sprints recently. He finished third ahead of fellow runner Texas Wedge in the G3 Daytona coming off of the layoff, and will likely bring that form into this race. However, at the distance, there are others I prefer here.

6- Hidden Scroll

It looked like there was a plan in place for this Bill Mott runner to begin a turf career with a prep in an allowance. That plan fell apart when the colt unseated John Velasquez and eliminated himself from contention. This is asking a lot of a horse that still hasn’t actually run on the turf yet.

7- White Flag

This horse used to be a favorite of mine, but he’s unfortunately had an inconsistent racing schedule over the past year. The six-year-old returns here in a tough spot and it appears that Junior Alvarado will be replacing Joel Rosario, who went to ride fellow runner Oleksandra. This horse is honest and well suited to the distance, but this is asking a lot.

8- Lonhtwist

This five-year-old has the least successful trainer in the race, Keith O’Brien. This horse has the least successful jockey in the race, Eric Cancel. He’s never run in a graded stakes race. He raced earlier this month and was crushed in his first race back. He’s 50-1 on the morning line. For what he is though, I kind of like him.

Order: 2 4 5 1

I think Oleksandra will be able to handle herself against the boys here, as she’s the one that I believe will best take to the added distance sprinting. Pure Sensation should run well but I think he’ll be caught by at least one other in here. Stubbins is another one that will make a good run, but not to win. I let Graham Motion fill out my top four.

 

Race 10

Belmont Stakes (G1), 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt

It may not be the “Test of Champions” this year, but this rendition of the Belmont Stakes will be no less fun than some of its counterparts. On paper, a few in here look evenly matched, but upon further inspection, I keep coming back to the same answer. I’ll be looking at all of them in post position order before determining where they’ll finish, starting with:

1- Tap It to Win

What a lovely name to my innocent ears. This colt wasn’t ready as a two-year old when stretching out to over a mile, so trainer Mark Casse laid him off for seven months and brought him back in May. He cut it a little short, but he finally broke through, dominating an allowance earlier this month with a 97 BSF. He isn’t the only one with early speed, but he is the fastest of them, and breaking from the rail may put him in a great position to score another upset in a big class test.

2- Sole Volante

Just as a side note: How happy must jockey Luca Panici be right now? This guy’s been working hard for years, and he finally finds a high-caliber horse to take him into a Triple Crown race with a chance. This one was competing well in some minor Derby preps before being put on the shelf. He returned earlier this month to take a big allowance at Gulfstream to prepare for this race. This colt always runs hard and has never had a bad race, but he’s not invincible. There are some very dangerous horses in here, and Sole Volante can compete with them, but a win might be a little more challenging coming from out of the clouds.

3- Max Player

This lightly raced colt took two tries to break his maiden before running away from the field in the G3 Withers. He was much the best that day, running greenly and wide but still pulling away in the stretch to win by three lengths and earn and 86 BSF. This horse certainly has a future beyond this race, but I would’ve loved to see trainer Linda Rice give her colt a prep before entering him against these.

4- Modernist

This colt got a very favorable trip dueling on the rail to win the Risen Star Stakes in February. She didn’t have the same luck in the Louisiana Derby but still ran reasonably well to take third while stalking the pace. This will be her first race since, and while her workouts indicate she’s in condition, I’d like to see her get a race in before she tries to tackle this sort of field.

5- Farmington Road

This horse has ran well in several Derby preps earlier this year, but simply failed to ever find the winner’s circle in any of those contests. He appears to be a tad slow against some of these in here.

6- Fore Left

This colt was part of the Doug O’Neill Pandemic Road Trip, as the California trainer shipped many of his horses to Dubai for an extended stay. He actually won a $250,000 stakes race over there, but looking at his prior form as well as the questions of distance and time off make this one very difficult to side with.

7- Jungle Runner

This colt trained by Steve Asmussen is simply not fast enough to contend with these.

8- Tiz the Law

Everyone knows the law by now. This colt has been nothing short of brilliant over the course of his five race career. His one poor start in the Kentucky Jockey Club was a result of traffic in the stretch, and every other start has been perfect. His last start was the G1 Florida Derby, which he won going away under Manny Franco. This one projects to stalk the leaders and make his move around the turn into the stretch, a move that’s already won him $945,000. He’ll be tough to beat here despite not having raced since March.

9- Dr Post

This colt was moving very quick back in March in her maiden win at seven furlongs. Next, he took on the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream and won easily against an overwhelmed field. The fact that this Todd Pletcher runner did his best running while sprinting does not mesh well with his lack of experience in deeper waters.

10- Pneumatic

This is Asmussen’s real colt in the race, which is clear by the riding services of Ricardo Santana. This is another lightly raced colt that found his stride immediately back in February and improved as a graded stakes runner in the G3 Matt Winn. There, he dueled for the lead before eventually losing the battle to Ny Traffic and Maxfield. This runner will run well, but it may feel a little too familiar out there in the 10 post as he tries to find his position early in the race.

Order: 8 1 10 2

When I think I can beat the favorite, I’m never afraid to try and do so, but this doesn’t feel like one of those cases. Tiz the Law is simply a notch above these other runners, and a couple in here might be able to beat him on any given day under the right circumstances, but if you ran this race 10 times, I believe you’d get the same result in nine of them. I believe Tap It to Win is ready for this and will make a compelling case while trying to wire them. Pneumatic ran very well while dueling for the lead in the last one, though this projects to be an even tougher trip. Meanwhile, Sole Volante will likely secure an inside post, and this one could be dangerous with a perfect trip.

 

Race 11

$80,000 Optional Claiming, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf

This is a surprisingly nice cooldown following the feature race. You could slap a G3 tag on this optional claimer and no one would question it. The biggest challenge was trying to figure out the layoffs, which led me to consider trainers more carefully. My top four:

9- Digital Age (Ire)

In a race full of horses taking time off, it’s best to check in with Chad Brown for the best prepared horse. In addition to some added security off the layoff, this Irish colt ran an unbelievably tough racing schedule last season, such that this will be the softest race he’s been in since early 2019. He doesn’t seem to mind the distance and should be dangerous here.

2- Breaking the Rules

Will the five-year-old fire fresh off of an extra long layoff? I’m not really sure, but I’m willing to take a shot. This horse ran in some classy races last year and competed well despite tailing off a little towards the end of the year. He was maybe a little out of his depth in those graded stakes races and winds up back in an allowance where he fits. I might get a price on this one, and a spot on the rail at this distance in the turf is very important.

3- Largent (SCRATCHED)

Well, the four-year-old Pletcher gelding is consistent. In five races, he hasn’t finished outside of place money and steps up again here. The only knock on this horse is his inexperience with this distance. For a horse that will likely be near the front, that’s a bigger question than if he was closing, although I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is near the wire again this time around.

7- Monarchs Glen

This gelding hasn’t won a race since 2018 in Europe, and I don’t expect him to do so here. I do, however, expect him to give an honest account of himself. He loses jockey Irad Ortiz to Digital Age, but Danny Gargan replaces him with Junior Alvarado, who’s always profitable. If I’m picking the first four finishers, I’d want this one in there somewhere.

Order: 9 2 3 7 (Update: the 3, Largent, is scratched.)

Digital Age will have a bit to do going into the first turn from an outside post position. However, I trust Irad Ortiz to guide her, and if she runs her race, she’ll be tough to beat. The two most likely to take her down are Breaking the Rules and Largent. The former could fire off the layoff with some class relief while the latter will be stepping up after finding a lot of success in lower levels. This should be a fun one to watch.

 

Race 12

$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf

Believe it or not, the Moquin family actually has some skin in this race. The 10, Power Up Paynter, is owned by MyRacehorse.com, a syndicate that sells small shares of horses for a few hundred dollars. Several Moquins have 0.1% ownership in the gelding trained by Linda Rice. Is it a conflict of interest for me to publicize my thoughts on this race as the son of one of an owner? I think I’ll have to take some time to consider as I come up with my top four:

2- Crack Shot

This is a well named speedster for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. He was running exceptionally well last year when breaking his maiden and followed up well in an allowance next time out. His last race before the layoff can clearly be forgiven as he was impeded at the start and effectively taken out of contention. Englehart isn’t great off the layoff, but the horse is, as this colt entered the 2019 season in June off a seven month layoff and took place money at 26-1. He should be able to get to the front with an inside post position, and he could be dangerous if he maintains his form from last year.

4- Simply

I’ve never seen a horse ship from Sam Houston Park to Belmont, which is exactly why I’m putting this one in second position. He probably didn’t beat much in his maiden win down south, but he looked good doing it while flying up the rail. Steve Asmussen doesn’t seem like the type to take unnecessary risks and enters this one confidently with other NY-breds. Maybe there was just an unclaimed spot on the Belmont Stakes Day trailer and Steve thought he’d take a shot in the finale. But that doesn’t explain why Jose Ortiz signed on to ride in a race where he seemed to have a few options.

7- Qian B C

This Carlton Baker gelding was running very hard last year, but wasn’t really rewarded until he improved slightly to break his maiden and come up just short in an allowance. It’s nice to see Joel Rosario returning to ride, and Baker is very solid with horses coming off a layoff like this (26% in 27 starts). My problem with this one is that she as an individual may be slow to warm up; she also came off of a long layoff to being her 2019 season but needed a few races to get back into it. She’ll probably run hard, but may just need a race.

10- Power Up Paynter

Alright, maybe this is a little biased, but I’m as big on Beyer Speed Figures as I am on 0.1% horse ownership. This Linda Rice gelding raced the entire winter at Aqueduct despite finding his best form in turf sprints at Belmont. He finally gets back to his preferred surface, and in his last turf start at two, he ran a 76 BSF to finish third behind fellow runner Turbo Drive. Jose Lezcano returns to ride again and again, and I’ll take a small chance on him improving from two to three at a price.

Order: 2 4 7 10

Trying to figure out the layoffs was a little tricky here, and I’m willing to take few chances here. Crack Shot should get a relatively comfortable lead and it’s reasonable to expect a good response in his first race off the layoff. The San Houston shipper was a fun and unexpected change, and I like to reward bold moves from good trainers. Qian B C should run hard but may need a race, and I honestly think Power Up Paynter might be interesting at a price. If he wins, we get $7 and get to call ourselves winning owners on Belmont Stakes Day.