If the Breeders’ Cup is never going to come to Belmont Park, then we’ll just have to go ahead and make our own championship weekend. In addition to the Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown, it’s hard to imagine a card of higher quality at this point in the racing season.
In nine graded stakes today, racing fans will have the privilege to watch some of the best at every distance and surface. Champions will be tested and new faces will undoubtedly stake their claim as the next ones in line. A select few may even begin to make cases as superstars, while others are already living legends. Admittedly, this sort of talk doesn’t always lead to profitability for bettors, as the presence of great horses often lead to short prices and small fields. But days like this are undoubtedly the life blood of the sport and should be appreciated for the showcase and spectacle they provide. Let’s get into it.
Race 1
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 11:20 a.m. EST
8- Unique Unions
Maybe his two-year-old season didn’t go exactly to plan, but competitive finishes behind runners like Un Ojo and Barese look much stronger now that those two have gone on to flirt with the Triple Crown trail. His first race this year was restricted to statebred 3YOs but he ran well behind a loose front runner to earn an improved 75 BSF. Trainer Richard Schosberg seems to have a knack when applying Lasix for the first time, and in an evenly matched field, the pace scenario here may suit him best.
6- Tap’n de Bank
Of the recent maiden winners here, I like this one best. His front-running victory last time out wasn’t easy by any means, as he was pushed along by cheap speed the whole way and still managed to hold off a pair of capable closers. The 76 BSF he earned is competitive in this field, but the likely pace scenario will be hot and racing against winners for the first time is always a challenge.
5- Big Castle
Yeah, he’s a little out there, and I don’t expect too much. He hasn’t won since September 2021, the distance seems a little short for him and I can’t really call him a fierce competitor either. The step up in class will put him at long odds that he deserves, but I have to admit that I can see some upside in this spot. Maybe. Running at route distances for most of the past year, the closer hasn’t had the opportunity to run into many fast paces lately. The last time he competed in a race where the leader ran the opening quarter mile in less than 23 seconds, he won, and there are several in this field that are capable of setting up for him. But who knows, maybe I’m just in a creative mood.
7- Win for Gold
He can definitely win as one of the only 4YO contenders in the field, but I’m wondering if his form is a little dressed up. Improving from a 68 BSF in his maiden win to a 79 in his second start seems impressive, but he lost that statebred allowance by more than six lengths in a runner-up finish behind the highly touted Key Point. I don’t necessarily love when horses improve so dramatically in a decisive defeat, as it sometimes implies that they were simply running hard behind a better runner. I need to see him win or at least compete to do so at this level before I can trust his general ability.
Order: 8 6 5 7
In a race of evenly matched runners, I think Unique Unions has an edge after a competitive start in April and a productive juvenile season in 2021. Tap’n de Bank ran very well to break his maiden last time out, and while the pace dynamics in this race may challenge him, he has handled challenges well in the past and remains a key contender. Big Castle is a bit of a shot in the dark, but if the race falls apart, there won’t be many around to pick up the pieces. Maybe today’s the day. Win for Gold could easily take this contest and start my day on a sour note, but I really need to see another race from him before I can justify betting him as the 2-1 morning line favorite.
Race 2
$92,000 Allowance for Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 11:55 a.m. EST
1- Power Agenda, 1A- Bright Future
I couldn’t care less about Power Agenda and don’t consider him a contender, but Bright Future seems to have the goods. In his debut back in March at Gulfstream, this three-year-old was extremely professional in a runaway victory, earning a 91 BSF. The layoff makes sense to me based on Pletcher’s more laid back style with inexperienced runners, and there’s plenty to like as this runner looks to take another step forward in his second start.
4- Strong Quality (SCRATCHED)
Back in March, this colt improved dramatically in his first start against winners at Fair Grounds, but it wasn’t quite enough to win a thrilling stretch duel with talented allowance runner We All See It. Mark Casse moved him to Kentucky to train for a few months before shipping him to New York to prepare for this start. I like his last start, and in a race where I don’t particularly love anyone, I expect him to finish in the money.
6- Three Jokers
He’s capable of winning this race, but his form cycle is simply too erratic to trust. Last time out, the five-year-old came off a two-month layoff and ran sharply, finishing second by a half length at this level with a 94 BSF. The problem is that he has performed this well in the past before regressing in subsequent starts. His inability to sustain his form is concerning to me.
2- Uncle Moonlight
He’s not a ridiculous 10-1 shot, even if there are issues. It’s a little late in the game for this five-year-old gelding to be coming into his own, but it is true that he’s improved in all five of his starts since October 2020. He had no chance in his 2022 debut running behind the highly touted Pipeline, but he won two of three starts on the Belmont dirt in 2021. It wouldn’t take much of a step forward for him to be competitive against this field.
Order: 1/1A 4 6 2 (Update: The 4, Strong Quality, has been scratched.)
Bright Future seems to be an aptly named horse at this stage of his career, and I think he’s found the right spot to return for his first start against winners. Strong Quality isn’t necessarily the second strongest competitor in the race, but I do believe he has a solid chance to pull off a minor upset based on his solid improvements at Fair Grounds earlier this year. Three Jokers feels a little like a paper tiger to me at this point in his career, and the fact that he hasn’t taken a step forward yet after four starts at this level should be revealing. Uncle Moonlight isn’t a terrible value play at 10-1 on the morning line, even if there are others in here that I prefer.
Race 3
Acorn Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:33 p.m. EST
5- Echo Zulu
We all know her, and bettors would probably love her more if she wasn’t a massive favorite in all of her races. Her undefeated streak finally came to an end in the G1 Kentucky Oaks last time out, but it’s very easy to excuse that defeat. On a wet track with a significant pace up front, it’s impressive that she managed to hold for fourth. The distance was also a question going into the event, and it’s nice to see her back at a mile. A similar pace problem may present itself here with fellow runner Matareya directly to her inside, but she remains the filly to beat in this short field.
4- Matareya
She’s phenomenal enough to make me worry about Echo Zulu in a five-horse field, and that’s saying something. Her last three starts, all commanding victories, have been perfect by any definition and she deserves to be a contender against the juvenile champ. My one nitpick with her is that she’s been stepping up in class but hasn’t necessarily faced many strong runners since she lost to Secret Oath at this distance by 8 ¼ lengths on Dec. 31. If she passes this test, however, she’ll be one of the top fillies in the country.
1- Dream Lith
If you were in the mood to make excuses for her, you could say that she hasn’t had many fast paces to run into lately, which could explain her two poor starts on dirt at three following a solid victory in the G2 Golden Rod back in November 2021. She’ll certainly find a hot pace in this race, but I’m not sold that that’s the problem. She may just be a step slow.
2- Inventing
This filly is probably the weakest in the field, but she’s more interesting to talk about than fellow runner Divine Huntress and I don’t think either one of them can win. It’s interesting to see Todd Pletcher making a gutsy move and entering this maiden in a G1 stakes race. It’s also a sign of confidence, and getting Irad Ortiz to ride is even better. After a strong debut at Gulfstream though, I’m really struggling to excuse her loss last time out at Churchill Downs, where she regressed significantly to finish second by a margin similar to her first defeat. Maybe they simply need to fill the field, but Pletcher doesn’t often waste his time either.
Order: 5 4 1 2
Something feels off about this race, but handicapping logic suggests that speed is a valuable asset in a short field. If that’s the case, Echo Zulu has a distinct advantage as the fastest filly in her crop, and between the cutback in distance and classy background, she has every advantage. Matareya seems like the real deal and makes me nervous to an extent, but her recent string of success has come against lesser and she’s the one that will ultimately need to prove herself at a short price. Dream Lith is obviously more advanced than the maiden Inventing, but I can’t find a compelling reason for anyone beyond the top pair to win this event.
Race 4
Just A Game Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 1:08 p.m. EST
3- Speak of the Devil (Fr)
In a race full of Chad Brown runners, it’s usually the one that makes the last move that wins it. In a race that will likely feature some sort of pace, that gives this one an advantage. The deep closer made her stateside debut for Brown at Churchill last month and closed beautifully, defeating fellow runners In Italian and Wakanaka handily. This is a step up in class, but she’s already beaten half of the field and really only has her stablemate to worry about.
2- Regal Glory
She’s unquestionably talented, and I’m not saying she’s bad at Belmont because she hasn’t returned to race here since finding her newfound form back in October last year. That being said, she has failed to take this stakes in two successive years. She has also been training on the same days as stablemate Speak of the Devil over the turf training course lately and has been consistently outrun. She’s still a very likely winner, but it’s just something to keep in mind.
4- In Italian (GB)
The third Chad Brown runner in this five-horse field is still in the up-and-coming stages of her career, and is likely in the race to provide a little pace for the trainer’s other runners. But you can’t really toss anything this guy puts on the turf either.
1- Leggs Galore
She doesn’t really have a chance with Phil D’Amato training her, but I need a fourth to talk about and Brown’s fresh out of horses. The plan for her is clear, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she tries to take a five-length lead out of the gate if she can get away with it. Everyone should go check out her win in the G2 Buena Vista back in March, when she took an eight-length lead early and hung on to steal the race. Pretty cool.
Order: 3 2 4 1
When Chad Brown wants to win a race, it’s usually best to stay out of his way. Speak of the Devil and Regal Glory are obvious candidates to win this race handily. While I’m giving the former the edge for first due to a sharper record at Belmont, Regal Glory could easily prove herself as Brown’s next turf mare. If you don’t like those two, Brown’s third runner In Italian also seems capable, though I suspect she’s primarily in the race to give her stablemates a target to close into. Leggs Galore will try her damndest to wire them all, but the odds are against her.
Race 5
Brooklyn Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 1:47 p.m. EST
3- Warrant
I’m betting him more for his performance in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap than anything else, as I believe it’s an indicator of his true ability at this point in his career. The 104 BSF he earned that day only reinforces what was truly a spectacular performance visually, as he applied early pressure and got caught between two cheap front runners, got run down by star runner Express Train but fought him to the wire from the inside anyway. The G3 Ben Ali defeat next time out is admittedly puzzling, but horses are known to bounce after big wins and the cutback in distance may have hurt more than trainer Brad Cox intended. I think this is an excellent spot to rebound.
5- First Constitution (Chi)
I don’t usually go for early speed types in these marathon races, but in the Flat Out last time at 1 ⅜ miles, this horse demonstrated that he can carry that speed going longer. Barring a poor start in the Exclesior off a layoff, his speed figures have been rock solid since last fall, and the lead should be his in the early going if he wants it. Jose Lezcano in the saddle for Todd Pletcher shouldn’t cause panic either, as he clearly has a bond with the horse and has been aboard for both of his U.S. wins.
1- Lone Rock
In this generation of runners, this gelding is unquestionably THE marathon man. The seven-year-old came into form last year and has been on a tear since, winning nine of his last 12 starts, including the 2021 running of this race and another four at this distance. That being said, he isn’t a world beater either, and has never really put up any speed figures to demonstrate significant superiority over today’s runners. I’m willing to bet against him but wouldn’t be shocked if he defends his Brooklyn title.
7- Fearless
One of three Pletcher runners in here, and he’s as solid as they come. He hasn’t failed to deliver in nearly two years and has finished in the money in nine straight races. He’s certainly a contender in this field based on a commanding victory in the G3 Ghostzapper two back and a runner-up finish in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap last time out. My only issue is that he hasn’t come close to running this distance previously, and it does have its challenges.
Order: 3 5 1 7
This is a very interesting race with a lot of moving pieces, but I landed on Warrant and feel very comfortable with the pick. His performance in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap was really impressive and the added distance shouldn’t be a serious hindrance. I’m cautiously hopeful. First Constitution seems to have competitive speed figures and proved last time out that the distance isn’t out of the question. Wiring is difficult in this sort of race, however. Lone Rock demands bettors’ respect after so much success at this marathon distance, but he seems beatable at a short price in a field full of heavy hitters. Fearless has qualifications that place him well in any graded stakes race, but I have questions about the distance that prevent me from supporting him wholeheartedly.
Race 6
Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Post Time: 2:22 p.m. EST
1- Jack Christopher
Listen, if you want to mess with him, you can go right ahead. But after coming back off a seven-month layoff and winning the G2 Pat Day Mile with a 98 BSF, I’m not sure there’s much standing in his way this time around.
4- Morello
This colt could have been in the Kentucky Derby, but a very poor start in the G2 Wood Memorial convinced Steve Asmussen to pull him and focus on the summer. Based on his three runaway victories before the Wood, he deserves a second look going forward, even if he has his hands full in this race.
3- Wit
I really liked this colt as a juvenile and his 2022 debut victory in the G3 Bay Shore was solid. It’s also encouraging that he seems to be settling into a career as a sprinter when others here seem to be using this race as a warmup. Still, he will need to take a step forward to contend, as he hasn’t improved significantly on paper since fellow runner Jack Christopher crushed him by nearly 10 lengths in the G1 Champagne last year.
2- Pappacap
In the G3 Lecomte, G2 Risen Star and G1 Florida Derby, I called this colt an overbet loser and he ran like one in all three races. I didn’t analyze the G2 Pat Day Mile when he lost to Jack Christopher, but I would have said the same thing if I had the chance. Let’s make up for it, shall we?
Order: 1 4 3 2
I don’t think this is supposed to be a serious test for Jack Christopher, who is obviously being pointed to better races later this summer. This should be another positive step on his return tour. Morello is the only runner that I could see challenging the favorite, but in order to do so, he would need to recover from his disastrous last start and take a step forward on his previous form. The cutback in distance should help. Wit is a worthy adversary for the favorite as well, but I can’t find a reason for him to improve significantly following a hard-fought victory last time out. Pappacap is an overbet loser.
Race 7
Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
3- Malathaat
In the G3 Doubledogdare, jockey John Velasquez rode this runner like she was Secretariat, traveling wide to avoid trouble and winning by a diminishing margin to avoid wearing her out unnecessarily. It was a very solid 2022 debut that may seem weakened by the 88 BSF she earned. But I’m willing to bet she’s still as good as she was back in November when she nearly won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. With some luck, she may be even better in her second race at four.
1- Lestruska
Alright, I can concede that she’s the most likely winner, having already defeated half of the field previously while holding every advantage from a pace standpoint as well as a talent standpoint. She’s pound-for-pound one of the greatest fillies of the century. She’ll also be at a prohibitively short price.
4- Clairiere
She made one hell of an attempt to take down fellow runner Letruska last time out, flying down the stretch to finish second by 1 ¼ lengths. The problem is that I can’t imagine how she can improve on that G1 Apple Blossom performance, and Letruska is almost always Letruska.
5- Search Results
Similarly to Clairiere, I believe that this talented filly tipped her hand in her second start of 2022, as the 96 BSF she earned in the G2 Ruffian is probably near the ceiling of her ability. If I’m trying to find someone to beat the favorite, I don’t feel comfortable betting a horse that performed below the required threshold in a demanding effort.
Order: 3 1 4 5
Let’s beat the favorite. Malathaat deserves a chance against the champ after a stellar three-year-old season, and I’m certain that she’s going to improve after a meandering victory off the layoff. If Letruska wins, no one will ever hold it against me that I didn’t take her on top. Clairiere ran extremely well last time out and it still wasn’t enough to take her down, and I can’t find a reason to give her another chance. Search Results may be stronger than I suspect, but I really do think her performance in the G2 Ruffian is close to her best.
Race 8
Jaipur Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 3:53 p.m. EST
12- Gear Jockey
Anyone looking at my top four in this race can tell that I’ve keyed in on the G2 Turf Sprint as the most useful prep for this race. The first reason is because I know of at least two horses in that field that won next time out, Bran and Caravel. The second is that the race could have been run 10 times and would have produced 10 different results, and this runner was the one that arguably got the short end of the stick. As one of at least five runners that bolted to the lead at the start, he eventually got stuck in between horses and steadied back to eighth. He then made another rally from off the pace to finish fourth in a blanket finish. Between the poor trip and the fact that he may appreciate six furlongs, I think he’s an interesting value pick.
5- Arrest Me Red
He may have gotten luckier than some in the G2 Turf Sprint, but he still didn’t win easily, dueling with an army of horses early and outlasting all of them to win by a decent margin. This colt really loves competing and is still rounding into form, which makes him a dangerous option in any race.
4- Casa Creed
After two solid showings in the Middle East to begin the year, this mainstay in the division will return to Belmont for a chance to defend his Jaipur crown. Though he tailed off at the end of the 2021 season, he does his best running in the summer every year and may just be replicating that form cycle. His qualifications are obvious and he has every chance to win, but I have questions about the layoff and his current form.
13- Gregorian Chant
It’s hard to believe that this gelding was part of the pace scenario in the G2 Turf Sprint and still began the race in 10th. I don’t know if his regression in last year’s running of the Jaipur was a result of the Belmont turf or some other factor, but I’m not going to deny him a chance of improving on a solid performance in a key race.
Order: 12 5 4 13
Anyone can win this one, but I did what I could. Gear Jockey exits the G2 Turf Sprint with one of the best cases for improvement, and six furlongs may prove beneficial as well in his Belmont debut. Arrest Me Red is a gamer that doesn’t seem to bounce often, making his victory in the aforementioned race a very clear sign that he’s ready to go. Casa Creed is probably the most talented runner in this field, but there are too many questions surrounding his form for me to take him at a short price here. Gregorian Chant has as much of a chance as a handful of runners I didn’t mention, but his finish in the G2 Turf Sprint was strong.
Race 9
Metropolitan Handicap (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Post Time: 4:43 p.m. EST
1- Flightline
If the best alternative to a 3-5 shot I love is a 6-5 shot I like, then I’ll embrace the chalk fully. I want this colt to be the next superhorse and this is a major test in his fourth career start.
2- Speaker’s Corner
He’s one of the best horses in the country, and the fact that he’ll likely be the second choice after earning a 114 BSF in the G1 Carter is more of a testament to the hype surrounding Flightline. If that runner regresses in any way, this colt is sure to punish him.
3- Aloha West
The 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner is… slow in comparison to the top pair. Wow. If the pace dynamics set up for him, then so be it, but he’s really tough to see in the winner’s circle.
4- Happy Saver
Once a hype horse back in 2020, he’s hit a hard plateau and doesn’t seem capable of improving.
Order: 1 2 3 4
It’s as easy as that, I guess. It’s funny that one of the races I’m most excited about on this card is also the one in which I have the least to say. The story is simple: Flightline looks to take another step toward stardom in his fourth career start, and Speaker’s Corner will likely prove to be the toughest runner he’s ever had to face. Everyone else seems to be running for fun. It may be better to watch this one, folks.
Race 10
Manhattan Stakes (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 5:38 p.m. EST
4- Adhamo (Ire)
If there’s a horse in this race that will benefit from added distance, I believe it’s this runner. In the G1 Turf Classic last time out, he was clearly a step slow to catch fellow runner Santin, but today’s race is longer and will feature more pace than that one did. It’s a good combination for a Chad Brown runner that is unlikely to be favored at post time.
2- Gufo
He’s the superstar in the race and his qualifications are obvious. For a runner that usually rounds into form as the season goes on, he actually seems sharper than ever after just two starts in 2022. I can excuse his loss in the G1 Man o’ War last time out, as that race heavily favored Highland Chief’s front-running trip. I don’t believe this race will set up similarly, giving the likely favorite an excellent chance.
6- Rockemperor (Ire)
I don’t know what happened last time out in the G2 Fort Marcy, but I’m not that worried either. In his 2022 debut, jockey Dylan Davis made no attempt to pressure him at any point in the race, and the fact that he faded badly in the stretch masks the point that he was firmly in the running early on. Chad Brown seems unconcerned by the poor start and enters him in his usual sort of race, and Irad Ortiz signs on as well. The main issue is that he doesn’t typically sharpen his form until later in the year, though a minor prize is still possible if he’s sound.
8- Highland Chief (Ire)
I don’t believe he can replicate the 105 BSF he earned in the G1 Man o’ War, where he beat fellow runner Gufo and Breeders’ Cup champ Yibir. The conditions that day rewarded his trip near the pace immensely, and it would be a difficult performance to replicate against this field. That being said, the distance seems right and he’s undeniably in good form. I’m not ruling out a minor prize.
Order: 4 2 6 8
I can’t resist Chad Brown in these races, even when his horses aren’t favored. Adhamo seems extremely well-placed in this field and should improve after two starts at a less-than-optimal distance. Gufo is the most predictable winner in the field based on some excellent recent performances, but there is room to think about beating him at a short price. I’m predicting that Rockemperor is going to bounce back after a terrible start to 2022 because Chad Brown’s confident placement usually means something.
Race 11
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
For full analysis and picks for the 2022 Belmont Stakes, check out the official Paddy’s Picks preview here.
Editor’s Note: While there are 13 races on today’s card, the handsome editor did not have time to write out his thoughts on the 12th and 13th races in time for publication. His picks, however, are below.
Race 12
$75,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Post Time: 7:29 p.m. EST
4- Just Like This
8- Al’s Rocket
7- Floki’s Flight
12- North Carolina
Order: 4 8 7 12
Race 13
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
Post Time: 8:05 p.m. EST
12- Palace Gossip
4- Shamalamadingdong
5- No Payne
1- Solib
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