Handicappers can celebrate the Fourth of July in style this year at Belmont with this stacked Saturday card. Every stakes race later in the day has its own narrative playing into season championships, and the names should become pretty familiar as this star-studded card progresses.
Note: The first seven races on today’s card are currently included in this analysis. This is being done for the sake of detail, as the final four races of the day will be getting more attention than a normal race. Those races will be included throughout the day.
Race 1
$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
I consider it sacrilege for a handicapper to play such a terrible race on such a glorious day of racing. But hey, if you want to go dumpster diving, I won’t get in the way. I’ll even enable you, as I quickly put together a top four before moving on to far more interesting events:
8- Charlotte Webley
It looks like Irad Ortiz is going to pick up another check here. Based on her first race off the layoff, this filly appears to be plainly superior over the rest of this field. Ortiz returns to ride for Jeremiah Englehart, and she doesn’t seem like the type of horse I’d try to beat.
4- Shayna Bay
David Donk was ambitious when entering his filly in her first start on the turf. She was clearly overwhelmed in that race, but was far from offensive. She drops in class here and switches to the dirt, all angles that Donk finds meager success with. Manny Franco stays on for a filly that could do well against a softer field.
12- Aggravation
This filly had a nearly impossible task in her first start last year, as Bank Examiner and Ratajkowski went on to become very talented horses. She hasn’t raced since, and comes off the bench for Mark Hennig against much softer competition. It’s a conspicuous drop that raises concerns over the horse’s ability, and Reylu Gutierrez doesn’t inspire much confidence either. That being said, she’s four now, and wouldn’t have to improve all that much to take down other runners in here.
11- Queentigua
Jockey Talbert Howell finally makes an appearance on Paddy’s Picks. That should be an indicator to stay away from this race. This horse has been trying to break her maiden for a very long time, but has improved in her last two starts since the layoff. Luis Miranda is also winless this year as well, so that’s a bummer. Maybe this horse does enough right to contend a little.
Order: 8 4 12 11
Charlotte Webley would have to take a step back to lose this race, and I don’t see it happening. Every other serious contender in the race is a question mark, and this isn’t a Thursday card where I’d have to stop and seriously consider them all against the heavy favorite. There’s graded stakes competition afoot, let’s keep hunting.
Race 2
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
In heaven, I firmly believe that every other horse race is an optional claimer on the Widener. I love these races and this one doesn’t disappoint, with several extremely talented runners making compelling cases for the top spot. I like analyzing them as much as I like writing about them:
1- Ballagh Rocks
1A- Tribhuvan (Fr)
I wish these horses were running separately. Their talent as individuals would split bettors and create more appealing odds than as an entry. I love both of these runners. Ballagh Rocks was and still is an excellent turf horse, and while his best days are likely behind him, he still loves to run and should have a say here. However, I find Tribhuvan to be an even more exciting option. In this colt’s first start in North America for Chad Brown, he made what can only be described as the widest move I’ve ever seen on the final turn at Gulfstream. It would have completely level most horses, but this one came flying down the stretch nonetheless to take third and earn a 90 BSF. His last race can be excused, as a broken rein took him out of the race, and in his second start off the layoff, I consider this Runner very dangerous.
2- Spirit Animal (SCRATCHED)
I don’t know if it’s profitable, but I love to see Rudy Rodriguez punching above his weight class in this one. I honestly believe the notorious low-level trainer may have caught Chad Brown napping in this colt’s last start, in which he proved to be far too talented to be running for a claiming tag. Against that softer field, he turned a competitive stretch run into a complete runaway, dusting the competition by five and a half lengths to earn a 93 BSF. Now in Rodriguez’s barn, he’s making sure he won’t lose this one against optional claimers, and while he’s worked very poorly with Joel Rosario this year, the fact that he’s getting him to ride indicates that he’s taking this race seriously.
4- Conviction Trade
According to the 92 BSF, this colt ran a very good race last time out and wasn’t rewarded against a tough field. He appeared to be a little overmatched that day, but still improved in what was a career-best performance. Jorge Abreu has been enlisting the services of Dylan Davis for this colt recently, but today, he switches to Manny Franco. This is a jockey upgrade indicating that the trainer thinks it’s time to start racing seriously with his runner, and while he’s not a great turf trainer, he can be trusted to understand a horse of high caliber.
6- Serve the King (GB)
Chad Brown has been a little hit-and-miss when shipping horses from Tampa Bay to New York, but this runner handled himself very well down there. Against weaker competition, this colt was perfect in two starts, running hard in the stretch after displaying tactical stalking speed early. Brown entices Irad Ortiz to ride, and while this horse will have to improve to win here, it’s not such a foreign occurrence with Brown’s turf runners.
Order: 1/1A 2 4 6 (Note: The 2, Spirit Animal, is scratched.)
It’s a shame that my top two selections happen to be a part of the same entry, but that doesn’t mean the race is a wash. Ballagh Rocks and Tribhuvan should have their say, but Spirit Animal, Conviction Trade, Serve the King and several others have a chance as well. Even if I can’t get around the favored entry, I still look forward to watching this one.
Race 3
Victory Ride Stakes (G3), Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This field may be short, but the fillies included are stellar. This should be an exciting one with horses that may be a little more evenly matched than the tote board would suggest.
4- Center Aisle
This filly’s two career starts make her a profoundly interesting runner to me. In her first race, she received a perfect trip sitting behind the leaders before making her bid on the turn. She took over easily and came home to win by nearly four lengths over Say Moi, who broke her maiden next time out and ran second here yesterday in an $80,000 optional claimer. In her second start, she started awkwardly and found herself dead last on the backstretch. She made a bold bid from there but traveled very far around the turn. Even then, she kept running without entering contention. If Chad Brown can help her overcome a poor start from the gate last time, she could be very dangerous here against a heavy favorite,
1- Frank’s Rockette
I had a lot of fun at Saratoga last summer betting against this horse, winning on back-to-back occasions with Perfect Alibi. Now a three-year-old, she’s been very tough on the lead in three starts and figures to get it to herself in this one. That’ll make her tough to run down, but at 3-5 on the morning line, I feel obligated to take a chance if I see one.
2- Up in Smoke
This filly made a very impressive move in her last start, moving boldly on the tall and running down talented front runner Boerne. She improved suddenly that day and still may be a step below others in here, but it seemed like the real deal to me. George Weaver recruits Irad Ortiz to ride.
3- Reagan’s Edge
This filly managed to upset an allowance field that had been rained off the turf in her last start. She ran well enough to run down the favorite that day and earn an 87 BSF, but the circumstances and visual performance wasn’t as impressive as others in here. Cherie DeVaux works sparingly with Jose Lezcano, but when they win, it pays to include their horses.
Order: 4 1 2 3
Frank’s Rockette could very easily wire this field, but at 3-5 on the morning line, I feel comfortable going in a different direction. Center Aisle appears better on replay than she does on paper, and should improve after a tough trip in her last start. Up in Smoke could very well win this race as well, as that move in her last start was too professional to ignore.
Race 4
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf
This is an interesting field of maidens going a little longer on the turf, though I found no reason for any of the main contenders to suffer from the added distance. The favorite seems a little obvious, but in a turf race, several evenly matched runners can often be separated by the trip they get. My top four:
1- Mr Jaggers
This horse faced off against Bay Street Money and Red Storm Risen in his last start, but the morning line has this one exactly right. The only critique of this colt’s last race is that he was ridden too confidently by Joel Rosario, as he made a bold sweeping move around the turn and ended up going too wide and flattening in the stretch. With a more sensible trip, such a stunning move won’t result in a third place finish.
5- Bail Out
This horse has been running very well at this level for a very long time, and it takes a very good horse for Javier Castellano to ride for Luis Miranda. That being said, the horse has six second place finishes in 14 starts and still struggles to break his maiden. His last race was as competitive as all the rest and he can improve second off the layoff, but I don’t believe condition is the issue here.
6- Bay Street Money
In his first start, this colt ran very well from dead last, closing fast but too late for fifth place. The presence of Reylu Gutierrez that day suggested that Jimmy Jerkens wasn’t focused on winning, while the presence of Junior Alvarado today suggests something else. Yes, Jerkens is abominably cold recently, and I continue to look bad by including his horses in my analysis. However, this one, like so many others, is very sensible on paper. He may just be getting unlucky, because I don’t find that he’s entering many unrealistic horses lately.
3- Red Storm Risen
Welcome to this weekend’s episode of “Graham Motion is a Trickster Genius.” This is a recurring segment in my analysis, and this gelding was another such case last time out. After performing terribly on synthetic last year at Woodbine, he brought the horse to Belmont off of a very long layoff, and he ran like he’s been doing so all along, holding well for fourth and earning a 74 BSF. Now he’s running in h8s second start off the layoff, another successful angle for Motion, and John Velasquez returns to ride.
Order: 1 5 6 3
I think Joel Rosario will ride Mr Jaggers more sensibly this time around, and if he fires again, he’ll be tough to beat. Bail Out has been close to breaking through so many times in his career, and the presence of Castellano for a Miranda trainee is frankly shocking. Maybe, just maybe, he gets it done today. Bay Street Money and Red Storm Risen were clearly not as good as Mr Jaggers last time out, but they each have a compelling reason to improve in this wide open race.
Race 5
$62,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
This is an interesting race featuring past and future graded stakes runners, and Chad Brown may skew the odds in what is actually an evenly matched field. My top four:
3- Tiz He the One
Among what I consider to be the serious contenders in this race, this gelding has a significant class advantage. In his last start, the G3 General George at Laurel, he would have needed a perfect trip to ever contend with Firenze Fire. Instead, he was rather wide around the turn and struggled to keep up in the stretch. That was in February, and Linda Rice brings him to Belmont with a solid chance based on his speed figures. Rice has two in here but she chose this one for her go-to rider Jose Lezcano. I’m encouraged by this horse’s form at seven furlongs and performances against better horses in previous starts.
7- Fortin Hill
This is a very sensible runner for Chad Brown, and should gain deserved favoritism. In his last start, he had a rough time out of the gate and couldn’t gain a tactical position as expected. He tried to make up ground late but was upset by a 30-1 shot. Assuming he gets good position here, he shouldn’t have trouble, and regains jockey Irad Ortiz for the task. However, he’s favored because of Brown, not because he’s plainly superior than other runners in here. That compels me to take a shot against him.
6- Amundson
This horse returned off the layoff with an excellent third place finish on the mud, deserving of the 95 BSF. However, as an early speed type, I’m concerned about a duel with fellow runner Ready To Escape to his inside, as well as his previous struggles at this longer sprint distance. If everything goes well for him, he’ll be tough to run down in the stretch. He may get a tough trip though, and that will definitely hurt his chances.
8- Zoomer
Irad Ortiz isn’t sticking around on Robert Klesaris trainee, but Manny Franco is a small consolation prize. In his first start off the layoff, this gelding ran a better race than fellow runner American Power, but American Power got the better trip and finished ahead of him by a length. I don’t think either one of them will be good enough to take down this field while stepping up in class. However, in a fight for fourth, I think this one gets the nod.
Order: 3 7 6 8
I think Tiz He the One may be underbet in this race, despite the fact that he’s just as impressive as several other runners here. His races at Laurel were against very tough competition, and he actually gets some class relief in his Belmont dirt debut for Linda Rice. I consider Fortin Hill to be an equal of my top selection, but I don’t expect the tote board to reflect that. Amundson will try to get the early lead but may be compromised by the distance and pace scenario.
Race 6
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf
Many of the better horses in this race have drawn far outside posts, while Too Sexy, another talented runner, may not make it in at all as an also-eligible entry. If they’re all out there, then the advantage is negligible, but does make them all vulnerable to an improving long shot. My top four:
10- Publication
Chad Brown is 35% with maiden second starters, because this game is unfair. Back in April, this filly ran very well to finish third at 24-1 odds, and I don’t see why she would struggle with a cutback in distance or layoff. The post would be the only issue, but Castellano is on her for a reason.
12- American Goddess
This filly keeps improving with every start for trainer Wesley Ward. Two starts back, she tried to wire a maiden special weight at Gulfstream at 31-1, and while she faded behind fellow runner Publication, it was an improvement in her form that she maintained in her next start. Ward brings her to New York and attracts Irad Ortiz for the race, a successful connection for the trainer. She’ll appreciate the cutback in distance, though the post may be a little too much for a horse that will be hard pressed to find room inside.
11- Zaccapa (Fr)
I’m a sucker for European horses, and this filly isn’t running into the strongest maiden special weight field ever assembled. She was running well in France last year, finishing second in three starts at Deauville and Chantilly. She makes her debut for trainer Brad Cox today, who is extremely good with all of the angles related to bringing a horse overseas. He also attracts Florent Geroux to ride, even though his services won’t really be required until later in the day. I think she’s worth a shot.
5- Pilot Episode
I don’t know if this horse can run on turf, but there are some encouraging signs. Joel Rosario had a few options in this race, but has elected to ride a first time turfer for Shug McGaughey, a trainer he’s had a lot of success with. The filly also has a 412 Tomlinson for the distance on turf, which makes me wonder why McGaughey hasn’t tried this surface earlier. She’s a sneaky option here.
Order: 10 12 11 5
I’m very uncomfortable with all of those wide trips, but I figure that at least one of them will manage to work out a trip. Publication is a Brown turf horse that also has the most proven ability, making him a worthy favorite. American Goddess continues to improve, but one has to wonder where the ceiling is. Allow me to indulge with Zaccapa, as I’m very fond of European runners but don’t have the necessary context to recommend her for a higher position. Pilot Episode might have some hidden turf ability after three fruitless dirt starts.
Race 7
$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf
I’m not sure if I have a feel for this race, with several layoffs and lateral class moves making some runners difficult to judge. I took my best shot in forming a top four:
2- Point Him Out
Jose Lezcano and Michael Stidham are a strange pair, but they sure worked well in this gelding’s last start. Against fellow runner Jack the Cat, he got a much tougher trip, and yet, he still managed to outrun him in the stretch. This will be his second start off the layoff at a distance he’s familiar with, and this runner fits incredibly well in this field.
4- Dante’s Fire
Irad Ortiz is exhausting man. On Thursday, Michael Maker and Irad Ortiz won together with Catch a Cab, a horse entering his second start off the layoff and gaining Ortiz’s services. Maker is extremely good with this angle and seems to recruit Belmont’s top jockey for winning efforts. This horse finished behind fellow runners Point Him Out and Jack the Cat in his last start, but he was closing well that day.
8- Danfusi
Lone speed is always dangerous, and Joel Rosario knows what he’s doing when in front. To break his maiden, this ridgling got a similar trip to the one he may get today, taking a clear early lead and holding off late runners in the stretch. He’s stepping into deeper waters here and may need a race, but if he gets everything his way, then he may not have to wait.
9- Bad Guy
Where did that come from? Rudy Rodriguez put a horse that was 1-for-14 on the turf back on what was technically on his preferred surface, and he raced surprisingly well off the layoff in open company competition. He’s still not a very successful horse, but an 81 BSF represents the best in this field recently. I don’t know, he’s a confusing option.
Order: 2 4 8 9
I identified a key race in order to cut through some of the class ambiguity. Point Him Out proved to be a superior competitor at this level last time out, while Dante’s Fire makes a compelling case for improvement. Danfusi has an excellent opportunity to wire the field, and that’s sometimes the solution for more convoluted races like this one. Bad Guy is perplexing, but his last performance can’t be ignored.
Race 8
Poker Stakes (G3), 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
Every horse in this race can win with the right trip, which makes it an opportunity for handicappers to be creative. It’s a fun bunch that may promise a stampede in the stretch. I’m going to analyze all nine horses in post position order before I form a top four:
1- Dream Friend
This horse’s plan is always clear. He won’t have an issue getting the lead in this race, but as always, it’s unclear if he’ll be able to hang on. For all of the time he spends in front, he hasn’t won a race since last June, despite finishing in the money every start since. He’s a frustrating runner that always has an outside chance in the stretch.
2- Valid Point
Finishing tenth by three lengths is very difficult to do, but that’s just what this colt did did last year in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile. He’s making his four-year-old debut for Chad Brown here at a distance he’s overwhelmingly familiar with on turf he’s handled in the past. I like his chances here.
3- Hawkish
As a three-year-old and early four-year-old, this gelding ran some of his best races at low graded stakes competition. He’s taken a step back since then, but may be rounding back into form here. In his last start, he closed very quickly at 44-1, utilizing an inside trip to make up ground in a fifth place finish. He’ll probably outrun his odds and he’s had a lot of success at this distance, but he’s a little difficult to consider too highly. Jimmy Toner is 0-for-23 in 2020, and while thus runner is improving, he still seems a shade behind his competition here.
4- Seismic Wave
It’s clear to me that Bill Mott has been preparing this ridgling for this race for a while. In his first race off the layoff, he was sprinting with a Eric Cancel on his back, despite having never gone shorter than a mile in his 11-race career. He wasn’t in a position to win, but he still ran extremely well, closing fast down the center of the track to take fourth by a length. This horse is 2-for-2 when going a mile and seems to be headed in the right direction from three to four. Joel Rosario will replace Eric Cancel in the saddle.
5- Social Paranoia
This colt was awesome in every sense of the word in the G3 Appleton back in March. Since then, however, he’s been a little less effective, particularly in the G2 Fort Marcy last time out. His excuse may be distance, that he runs better at shorter distances, but that’s not totally supported by his past performances. He tends to fire best off of layoffs, which may also explain the performance in the Appleton. In the end though, he may just be inconsistent. He’s back at a mile for Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz, and today is as good a day as any.
6- Eons
This colt will be making his four-year-old debut, and that could indicate improvement off of a long layoff. However, as a three-year-old, this horse was slower than many of his counterparts in this race. He’ll have to improve significantly to have a chance.
7- Got Stormy
Last year, this mare was the one of the best turf horses in the country. Those days are over. She’s been very inconsistent this year, though it’s important to note that she hasn’t been able to really get going due to two separate layoffs. Her best race this year came in her second start off the winter layoff, when she just missed in a Grade 1 race at Santa Anita. In her first race of the Belmont meet, however, she simply didn’t fire, fading to fourth in a five horse field. She’s a machine at a mile, and the fact that Mark Casse enters her here against the boys indicates that he still has faith. Maybe I can get on board.
8- Its All Relevant (Main Track Only) (SCRATCHED)
If this race is on dirt, this horse will win. If it’s not on dirt, he’ll be scratched.
9- Value Proposition (GB)
Well, this ridgling really came into his own in his four-year-old debut. In that race, bettors were apparently insistent that Hidden Scroll could run on the turf. Bill Mott’s untested turfer threw the jockey at the start, and this horse turned out to be the real threat. He looked a picture in the stretch, closing professionally to notch his third win in four career starts. He’s proven at a mile, he’s proven at Belmont, and he’ll be tough to beat here for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz.
Order: 4 7 9 2
This is Seismic Wave’s first real start as a four-year-old, and I’m very curious. I think Bill Mott is best when he has a clear plan, and it appears that he has one for this runner. Got Stormy is still a talented mare, and I believe she deserves another chance based on her trainer’s confidence. Value Proposition is a lightly raced Chad Brown trainee that can easily win this race given the right trip. However, I’d like to see him try deeper waters before I feel confident with 5-2 odds on the morning line. Valid Point has quietly done his job up to this point, and Brown wouldn’t enter him here off the layoff if he felt he wasn’t ready.
Race 9
Metropolitan Handicap (G1), 1 Mile on the Dirt
This is one of my favorite races every year, as it always promises some of the best runners in the country. That being said, I’ve only won the race once, when I bet sentimentally on Frosted in the 2016 running. This field is as good as past renditions, and I can’t wait to watch. I’m going to analyze every horse in post position order and analyze them individually:
1- Network Effect
This horse runs consistently and most recently finished second to Vekoma in the G1 Carter. In that case, his usual performance wasn’t enough to take the top spot, and that’s even more true here. He’ll have to improve.
2- Vekoma
Well, that 468 Tomlinson for the wet came in handy last time, as this horse ran away from a relatively weak field in the G1 Carter, winning by seven lengths and earning a massive 110 BSF. He ran well in an ungraded stakes back in March, so this wasn’t a total aberration either. If anything, it demonstrated that he was rounding into condition. However, he may have to repeat that performance or something close to it to have a chance for the top spot here, and I’m not certain how likely that is.
3- McKinzie
Generically named jockey Mike Smith makes his debut in New York this year aboard last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up. I don’t know if this Smith fellow has what it takes to make it in New York, but he’s certainly stumbled on the right horse. In his four-year-old season, this horse was lights out, never finishing outside of second place in some of the best races of the year. He traveled to the Middle East for the Saudi Cup, where he took his first beating since the 2018 BC Classic. He returned to Santa Anita in a race where he was heavily favored, and he won in an unexpectedly mortal performance (98 BSF). It’s unclear whether he was geared down, needed a race, or has truly taken a step back, but I suspect it’s one of the first two, or else he wouldn’t be here. He’s not the only danger in here, but I don’t suspect he’s lost much of his former potency.
4- Hog Creek Hustle
This horse is a lot of fun in the right spot, but I don’t think this is the right spot. I’ll be very happy if I’m wrong, but I feel safe leaving him off my tickets.
5- Code of Honor
I’ve bet on this horse in the G1 Travers (along with Owendale of course) and the Breeders’ Cup. I love the way he runs; he has a very classical quality about him, something I attribute to his trainer, Shug McGaughey. As a three-year-old last year, he proved that he could could compete with older horses when he lost by a nose to future Classic winner Vino Rosso in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. In his 2020 debut, he ran beautifully, making a bold move on the turn and chasing down fellow runner Endorsed in the G3 Westchester. He loves Belmont, and while he likely prefers more distance, he’s proven he can handle a mile, as he did in the G1 Champagne at two and the G3 Dwyer at three. If it isn’t clear by now, I like this horse’s chances.
6- Endorsed
Joel Rosario should get a raise for the brilliant trip he gave this horse last time out. He saw an opening on the rail early and seized the opportunity, getting a dream trip on the inside part of a muddy track. This Bill Mott colt ran the race of his life that day, but it still wasn’t enough to defeat fellow runner Code of Honor. I doubt an average trip would manage to beat any of the top runners in here, unless he improves unexpectedly.
7- Mr Freeze
This horse is certainly effective at a mile, and the most compelling BSF figure this horse has earned was a 107 in the G2 Gulfstream Park Mile. In his last race in May, he was the tepid favorite in a wide open running of the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. He ran well for third that day while making an uncharacteristic closing trip, but it represented a slight step back from his form earlier in the year. He may have just needed the race, and he’s previously demonstrated improvement in the second race off a layoff. He may offer bettors some value, though I don’t know if he’s quite good enough to beat some of the top runners.
8- Warrior’s Charge
This horse outran his odds in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap, taking an early lead and finishing ahead of every runner except rising star By My Standards. He cuts back to a mile here, and logically, that should help a notoriously stubborn front runner. However, he’s proven to be an efficient speed horse at longer distances, and a shorter route may force him into a hotter pace than he’s comfortable with on the front end. Florent Geroux is in New York for this 12-1 shot though, and this runner always provides a dependable value play for bettors. Regardless of her odds, I’d never want to see him alone out there early.
Order: 5 3 7 8
I want to see Code of Honor take another step forward as a four-year-old, so I’m going to bet that it happens as well. That being said, McKinzie is always dangerous and could be another horse in a long history of Bob Baffert stealing New York’s most coveted stakes races. If Vekoma wins, then I suppose I look rather silly, but I think the Oaklawn Handicap was a better prep than the Carter Handicap, so I’m giving my third and fourth positions to Mr Freeze and Warrior’s Charge, two long shots I respect in any spot.
Race 10
Manhattan Stakes (G1), 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf
I was honestly a little underwhelmed by this Manhattan field. It feels like the sort of race tailor-made for Chad Brown, who has three very likely entrants. If I had to choose which turf race would be more compelling on this card, I’m actually looking forward to the Poker a little more. Nonetheless, these horses are great, I have a soft spot for Sadler’s Joy, and it should be a quality prep for the Breeders’ Cup. As I’ve been doing for all of these stakes, I’ll be looking at all of the horses in post position order before I give my top four:
1- Instilled Regard
This horse’s first race off the layoff was excellent for Chad Brown. He made a very professional move around the turn and managed to hold off a furious rally from fellow runner Devamani to win the G2 Fort Marcy. He’s a very classy horse that’s been in some tougher races than this one, having run third in the G1 Pegasus Yadda Yadda Invitational earlier this year. He has to be considered here.
2- Rockemperor (Ire)
I wish this horse had a win stateside, because I’d feel a lot more confident supporting him. His first race off the layoff was at Santa Anita, where he ran too well to lose in a photo finish to United. That race has him prepared for this distance, and I like the cross country move from Chad Brown, who’s clearly treating this horse like a big deal. It’s slightly concerning that he’s directed Irad Ortiz to move to ride Instilled Regard, but I really like this horse as an individual.
3- Cross Border
If this horse couldn’t win an optional claimer last time out, then I struggle to visualize him winning a Grade 1 race. He has some tactical speed, which could be useful in this paceless race, but he hasn’t proven that he can handle a race of this caliber.
4- Sadler’s Joy
This horse is another of my favorites. He doesn’t always win, but he always runs, and on his best day, he can take down nearly any turf horse in the country. He closed very well in an ungraded stakes in his first start off the layoff, a race with no pace to speak of that went to an upset wire-to-wire winner. It will prepare him well for this race, but the issue of pace will likely come up again in this one. He’s also 1-for-11 at Belmont and 1-for-4 at the distance, though that’s more a result of the fact that he’s been facing the very best turf runners for most of his life.
5- Devamani (Fr)
I think that this horse has the best performance in the G2 Fort Marcy, despite the fact that she finished second behind fellow runner Instilled Regard. If that race were 100 yards longer, she would’ve blown by the competition, and while a rally can sometimes seem faster than it actually is, this was a rally against some of the top turfers on the Belmont circuit. There’s not much pace to run at here, which will hurt her chances. That being said, I think she’s another Chad Brown runner in with a chance here.
6- Channel Maker
This gelding was very good for a very long time. He’s surprised me in the past, but I believe his best days are behind him by this point.
7- Dot Matrix
This gelding finished ahead of fellow runner Sadler’s Joy last time out, but I think that was a result of race setup more than ability. He’s improved recently, but he still hasn’t proven he can take down a field of this caliber, so I’m looking elsewhere.
8- Spooky Channel
This horse has run well recently in allowance competition, but this is an ambitious step up for a runner that appears a little overmatched.
Order: 5 4 1 2
I’ll allow Sadler’s Joy to break up the Chad Brown trifecta, and I’ll obviously be putting a sentimental win bet on him. Among the Brown runners, I think Devamani might be able to turn the tables on Instilled Regard, as I was more impressed by his performance in defeat last time out. Instilled Regard could obviously win this one as well, and it’s probably not great for my record to list him third, but I like the two deep closers a little more. Rockemperor’s performances for Brown have thoroughly impressed me as well, as if having the top two horses in the race wasn’t enough.
Race 11
Suburban Stakes (G2), 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
I won this race with Mucho Macho Man at some point, a very talented horse that also happened to be one of my first informed Kentucky Derby selections. There are several runners here that should be familiar to even casual handicappers, as Sir Winston and Tacitus finished first and second in last year’s Belmont Stakes. I’m going to go through each runner in post position order before I list my top four:
1- Tacitus
This horse is a perennial monster-in-waiting. At every point in his three-year-old season, he was considered one of the most dangerous runners in some top-notch races. However, while Maximum Security and Code of Honor have continued to step forward, this big grey colt can’t seem to get going. He hasn’t won a race since the 2019 G2 Wood Memorial, and he’s compiled excuses since. In his last race, he was extremely wide around both turns and still made a mild rally to take fourth in a very tough running of the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. He’s probably the best here, but he might just have another excuse ready.
2- Parsimony
This horse doesn’t fit here, especially after a very poor performance at Santa Anita last month.
3- Forewarned
Remember when Uriah St. Lewis won the Jockey Club Gold Cup with Discreet Lover? Yeah, that was fun.
4- Mr. Buff
This gelding isn’t the classiest individual, but he should be feared all the same. Now that Joevia is scratched, this horse will get a much easier pace up front, and if Moretti can’t keep up, then he’s going to be a problem. The last race can be forgiven, as this one has needed a start in the last to get going off of layoffs. He can easily return to his form from the winter, and if he does, then he may be able to topple this tougher field. The only issue is the distance, which is longer than he’s ever had to go before.
5- Joevia (SCRATCHED)
Joevia was supposed to be a pace presence in this race. Now she’s scratched, which actually changes this race a little up front.
6- Sir Winston
I bet this horse to win the G1 Belmont Stakes, which worked out rather well for me. In his first race off the layoff, he was unable to close against fellow runner Moretti, who benefitted from a clear lead and slow pace. This four-year-old still ran a little to take second place, and in his second start off the layoff, he’s proven effective in the past. The added distance doesn’t help either.
7- Just Whistle
This horse has been outrunning his odds as of late, and steps up again after taking an ungraded stakes at Gulfstream last time out. His only race at this distance was impressive in relation to what he was doing at the time, and Irad Ortiz needed a mount. He may actually be good enough to make some noise here.
8- Moretti
This horse improved while wiring an ungraded stakes race last time out. He defeated Sir Winston that day, but beating him and the rest of the field would require him to duplicate that 96 BSF. He earned it with an uncontested lead that he won’t have a chance of getting this time around, which makes me think he’s more likely to run back to his previous races.
Order: 1 6 4 7
I’ve burned a little money on Tacitus in the past, but there are far more frustrated bettors out there than me. I’ve beat him several times, once with Sir Winston, but I think he’s extremely well prepared for this one. There’s no better prep than the Oaklawn Handicap, which was an impossibly tough field he ran well against. He can handle the distance and I think he can turn the tables here. Sir Winston will likely improve over his previous performance, but I don’t think he’s as well prepared for this race as his old Belmont rival. Mr. Buff could very well wire this field, but he’s taking a step up in class and trying a new distance. Just Whistle is my value play here because he actually fits surprisingly well in this field on speed figures, even if he’s been facing lesser competition.