This is the sort of Belmont card I can get used to. I’m not sure that NYRA should lean into its reputation for superior turf racing, but the fact of the matter is that there are few better places in the U.S. for such deep fields on the grass. This card features multiple graded stakes, some messy allowance and maiden races and enough handicapping strategies to tide over any handicapper — at least until the next Racing Form comes out. Without much more chatter, let’s take a look at the first:
Race 1 (OFF THE TURF)
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, One Mile on the Widener Turf
2- Platinum Paynter (SCR)
8- Kissing Frogs (SCR)
1A- Classic Lady (SCR)
6- Flower Point
Note: I didn’t account for a rainout today, but single the 4, Aunt Kat. The rest of the analysis for this race is meaningless.
I wouldn’t say that this race is totally locked up, but Platinum Paynter looks very well suited to take it after a pair of impressive stakes performances earlier this year. His main competition will come from Kissing Frogs and Classic Lady, two very different fillies from a racing perspective. Kissing Frogs ran well in an optional claiming contest at Gulfstream in March, and I think her poor performance next time out was a result of the punishing distance test. She should be able to improve in her third start. Meanwhile, Classic Lady only raced three times last year, all in NY-Bred competition, but performed sharply throughout and could make some noise on first asking in 2021.
Race 2 (OFF THE TURF)
$75,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
2- Get the Candy (SCR)
7- Kreesa La Wrote (SCR)
11- Caumsett (SCR)
6- Tales I Winit (SCR)
Note: Everyone’s scratched and the race is off the turf. Let’s go with the 13, Raffinity, on top.
This race is a little underwhelming, which makes it tempting to go with a long shot, but I’m unable to find one that fits the bill on paper alone. Get the Candy will make her three-year-old debut after a solid effort on the turf at two. If she can improve on that performance after maturing over the winter in Michelle Nevin’s barn, then she’ll probably be good enough to win. Kreesa La Wrote and Caumsett faced off last time and the former got the better part of the exchange. Based on the connections and post positions, I expect a similar result here. Tales I Winit seems like a slightly less likely winner, considering that she was as fast at three as Get the Candy was at two in her first turf start.
Race 3
Tremont Stakes (Ungraded) for Two-Year-Olds, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
6- Little Drama (SCR)
3- Overbore
4- Trust Our Journey
Update: The 6, Little Drama is scratched.
Much like yesterday’s Astoria Stakes featuring Happy Soul, this seems like another lock in a juvenile stakes race. Little Drama dominated his first start at Belmont with an 81 BSF, and the rest of these horses don’t seem up to the task. In order for him to lose, he’ll likely have to take a step back while another horse improves significantly. Finding place and show is a little tricky without speed figures for races under five furlongs, but Overbore seems like a safe option for Wesley Ward.
Race 4
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
4- Mahaamel
8- Repo Rocks
2- The Honorable One
5- Cody’s Wish
In almost any other scenario, Mahaamel would not be in this race today after his performance last time out in April. Earning a 93 BSF on first asking, he ran too well to lose but was chased down by First Captain, a $1.5 million McGaughey purchase that went on to take an allowance last weekend at Belmont. The competition here is not on that level, and this colt shouldn’t have as much company at the wire. After a long time toiling away, it seems that Repo Rocks is finally finding his stride, much to former trainer Bill Mott’s chagrin. That being said, he really could have broken through in either of his last two starts, and he’s had a lot of chances in general. The Honorable One will make his first start for Todd Beattie, a patient trainer that doesn’t bring his horses to Belmont unless they’re ready. Meanwhile, Cody’s Wish may serve Mott well in the future, but I like to give his runners a race before I support them on top.
Race 5
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Three-Year-Olds, One Mile on the Widener Turf
12- Public Sector (GB)
1- Shaftesbury
10- Founder
5- Science (Ire)
This is a very tricky turf race, and my strategy in positions like this is to lean heavily on Chad Brown. There are reasons to bet against Public Sector (GB), mostly connected to the issue of pace. At a mile, his closing style loses some of its potency to runners with more natural speed. That being said, he is the class of the field and closers have found success on the Belmont turf this week so far. Shaftesbury finally put the pieces together to break his maiden, and I believe his uptick in Form may have something to do with a preference for the New York grass. Horses that take a long time to break their maiden often repeat soon after their first win, which makes this one interesting. Founder is Chad Brown’s other runner here, which is a terrifying prospect despite the fact that the horse has never run on turf. The trainer is uncanny when it comes to assessing runners’ abilities on the grass, and he clearly had high hopes for this one early on. As a 2YO on dirt, he faced five runners that went on to compete in the Kentucky Derby this year, and even defeated Highly Motivated in his first start. Switching him to turf seems very dangerous to me, and if the price is right, he may be worth a flyer. Science (Ire) is more of a blind pick based on his European form and a good stretch of success for Brad Cox at this meet.
Race 6
$80,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
3- Brilliant Brooks
11- Devil’s Code
6- Colormepazzi
10- Quickflash
I personally think that this race comes down to two runners, one with consistent form and another with anything but. Brilliant Brooks has run consistently all year and seems well placed by Rob Atras at this statebred allowance level. He lost to Devil’s Code last time out, but the outstanding questions about this colt make him too volatile. If he can replicate the 84 BSF he earned in his most recent runner-up performance, he has an excellent chance, but he’ll be moving from the far inside post to the far outside post this time around. In addition, his one race on a wet track was an unmitigated disaster, though it’s unclear how much effect the moisture could have had. Colormepazzi earned a comparable speed figure against a lesser field last time out, and should have trouble running back to that performance here. Meanwhile, Quickflash is indeed quick enough to compete here but hasn’t won a race in over a year.
Race 7
True North Stakes (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
1- Firenze Fire
2- Flagstaff
5- Looking At Bikinis
7- Phat Man
Firenze Fire seems to really come alive when he arrives at Belmont, as he did last time out in the G3 Runhappy. He’s the sharpest in the field and is also likely the classiest, making him tough to go against one more time. Flagstaff is an incredibly honest horse that gives the same performance every single time, which is a valuable commodity for exotic bettors. Looking At Bikinis and Phat Man have been known to put in some excellent performances, but LAB gets the edge for a glowing record on the Belmont dirt.
Race 8
Bed O’ Roses Stakes (G3) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
8- Estilio Talentoso
5- Victim of Love
4- Bayerness
6- Chub Wagon (SCR)
Update: The 6, Chub Wagon, is scratched.
After middling campaigns at two and three, Estilio Talentoso has really found her step at four with some very sharp runs in the money at higher levels. Her recent speed figures weren’t enough to win but are enough to take down this field. The class relief should be enough. From there, the field becomes wide open, but Victim of Love seems most interesting to me because of a noticeable edge at Belmont. The winner of back-to-back Vagrancy Stakes is capable of taking another step forward in her second start off the layoff. Bayerness is a little unknown in this field but should launch her 4YO campaign in earnest here after an ill-fated run in the Kentucky Oaks last year. I don’t believe Chub Wagon will extend her undefeated record to seven here, but it’s important to never fully count out stubborn horses with early speed.
Race 9
New York Stakes (G2) for Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward, 1 1/4 Miles on the Inner Turf
5- Harvey’s Lil Goil
2- Virginia Joy (Ger)
1- Magic Attitude
9- Thundering Nights (Ire)
There are eight runners in this race that could conceivably win, which makes selecting four a tough task. Harvey’s Lil Goil stands out as the sharpest in her recent tries, having run in the money in the BC Fillies and Mares Turf and following it up with a win in the G3 Beaugay to begin 2021. She may be a part of a blanket finish here, but she has had the best closing kick as of late. Virginia Joy (Ger) ran very well in her first race stateside for Chad Brown, an allowance that was clearly a prep for this race. With a step forward in her second start off the layoff, it’s very likely that she’ll be in the mix at the end. Magic Attitude has shown up in a big way on the two occasions that she has appeared at Belmont, which is a huge advantage in turf races. She’ll be flying from the back and has proven effective at the distance as well. Thundering Nights (Ire) is a bit of a shot in the dark, but I highly doubt that Joseph O’Brien is bringing nags across the pond to participate in graded stakes.
Race 10
Belmont Gold Cup (G2) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, Two Miles on the Widener Turf
8- Baron Samedi (GB)
6- Strong Tide
5- Fantasioso (Arg)
4- Conviction Trade
This is a bizarre race because very few of the horses make compelling cases at this marathon distance. That being said, I believe there’s a foreign invader in the mix that deserves favoritism. Baron Samedi (GB) has been brilliant overseas at distances comparable to this one, winning six in a row while stepping up in class. He seems to have found a weaker field here, which makes the surface the only possible obstacle in his way. Strong Tide has the speed and the will to win, but he lacks class and seasoning at the distance. That being said, the G3 Louisville could very well have been a G2, as he finished third close behind Arklow and Red Knight. I think he’s a horse coming into form, and the distance will have to remain an unknown factor. Fantasioso (Arg) ran some marathons in Argentina and is finally getting some class relief stateside after some tough stakes races in Kentucky. Conviction Trade is one of three in the race for Michael Maker, and he chose Irad Ortiz to ride. He’s also the only horse in the race with a win (and start) at this absurd distance.
Race 11 (OFF THE TURF)
$90,000 Maiden Special Weight for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 1/4 Miles on the Inner Turf
5- Cambi Lion (SCR)
3- Mutasallem (SCR)
8- Landbiscuit
4- Summer Silence
Note: This race has been taken off the turf and this analysis is no longer useful.