Belmont Analysis: Friday, June 19, 2020

Though this card will soon be forgotten in days to come, it’s giving us 10 races to play on a Friday, and that’s never a bad thing. I find several of the turf races here particularly interesting, and while I didn’t locate any locks, there are some interesting entries to discuss. Even I can admit that today’s handicapping is in preparation for Belmont Stakes Day tomorrow, but maybe I can play with their money going in if I can hit with a few today.

 

Race 1

$53k Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Two-Year-Olds, 5 Furlongs on the Dirt

There’s never a lot to go on in these races for first time starters. I usually pick a trainer I like and check to see if he’s put a live jockey on the horse. Then I maybe check the Tomlinson ratings and the work tabs to look for a horse that might be ready and able on first asking. It’s very rarely the type of race I bet with confidence, especially since I’ve lost the opportunity to watch them live in the paddock. Still, there were a few good options in here, as listed below:

8- Quick Nick (SCRATCHED)

Since when has Christophe Clemente become a star with first time starters? When did that happen? On top of his trainer’s talent with firsters, the colt has a top-notch jockey in Joel Rosario and a 385 Tomlinson for the distance to go with some quick workouts. 

10- Effinity

Picking between the two first time starters for Brad Cox, I’m just going to play the jockeys. Luis Saez seems to be his go-to guy at Belmont, and that bullet work on June 13 doesn’t hurt either.

7- Competitive Hero

What can I say? When I don’t have much to go on, I go with the trainers. Brad Cox is a talented guy with two in here, and I’ll consider both of them.

9- Data Deal

I’m not too sure about this colt, as I feel that the Miceli/Davis connection works better at Aqueduct. However, they’re apparently very good at Belmont as well, and I’ll throw him in as a horse with a decent work tab for a notoriously sneaky trainer.

Order: 8 10 7 9 (Update: The 8, Quick Nick, has been scatched.)

I’ll side with Clemente in this one. He’s apparently excellent when preparing first time starters, and the horse seems ready to go to looking at the work tab. The two Cox runners and Miceli’s longshot fill out my top 4.

 

Race 2

$64k Maiden Special Weight for Fillies Three Years Old and Up, 1 ¼ Miles on the Inner Turf

I love this race and can’t wait to lose money on it. Why aren’t more races run at long distances like this? Bettors could make a case for every filly in this race. There are some very talented turfers in this one to go along with some very intriguing long shots. As a result, I decided to analyze every horse here, rather than solely my top four selections:

1- Astoundment

This is probably the least interesting horse in the race. He showed very little improvement in his first race as a three-year-old, and in a race chock full of great trainers and jockeys, Jimmy Toner and Eric Cancel appear a little out of their depth.

2- All Others Follow (GB)

First off, fantastic name. I love a name with some gravitas. Would this filly be the morning line favorite if not for trainer Chad Brown? Probably not. Does Chad Brown’s name warrant favoritism? Indeed it does. This horse’s only start came at Tampa Bay Downs, where he was probably facing weaker competition but came flying at the end in a very encouraging first start. Brown often wins with his first time starters, but he’s not too shabby on their second start either (35% win rate in 106 starts). This well-named filly closes well and she has a trainer that can be trusted to get her ready.

3- Cherokee Song (SCRATCHED)

This horse desperately needed the winter off in New York. I don’t know how it took trainer Randi Persaud not one, but two races to figure out this filly couldn’t run on the dirt. She did display some decent turf form as a two-year-old; it’s just a matter of whether she’ll step up to contend with these on first asking at three. She’s a long shot with some upside, but this will be a tough test. 

4- Coilean Bawn

The Aqueduct turf is so weird. For some horses, it’s like a totally different surface altogether. I’m not sure whether she truly did tail off at the end of her three-year-old season, or if she just preferred Belmont and Kentucky Downs to the bizarre surface in Ozone Park. Regardless, she returns here as a four-year-old as one of two entries for turf legend Christophe Clement. She’s also the only filly in the race with experience at this demanding distance, and she’s proven she can handle it. It’s all a question of her condition on first asking in 2020, though Clement has been known to handle layoffs well.

5- Tonal Verse

In 2011, trainer Graham Motion entered a horse with almost no dirt form in the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom paid $20.90 to win. A year and a half later, that same horse was entered in the Breeders’ Cup Mile off of a nine-month layoff and without a prep race. He finished second at 10-1. Graham Motion is a trainer I respect immensely for his boldness and creativity when finding spots for his horses, and he’s got two bizarre ones in here. Tonal Verse has never run in a turf race, and in the three dirt races she’s competed in, she’s failed to reach the winning circle despite facing softer competition at Parx and Laurel. Jockey Trevor McCarthy, the filly’s rider in all of her starts, makes his first start of the Belmont meet here, a rare road trip for the successful small-time jockey. With no turf experience and a 296 Tomlinson for the distance, this horse would have no chance under normal circumstances. He hasn’t even run close to this distance. But Motion doesn’t often waste his time, making this a shot-in-the-dark longshot with upside.

6- Curly Wurly

Clemente’s other runner in here was far from disgraced in her first start at Tampa Bay Downs. Junior Alvarado works well with Clemente as well, and there’s reason to suspect this filly will improve in her second start. However, there are others that can improve as well, and she may be a shade behind the curve. Clemente may be demonstrating patience with this horse, entering her at a longer distance to get some wind into her before cutting her back at some point in the future.

7- In Front

What happened at Gulfstream? This filly was running well as a three-year-old and seemed poised to break through in January before fading in the worst defeat of her career. She was laid off and will return in this race going at a new, longer distance. She definitely has a solid chance and fits well with these runners, but trainer Shug McGaughey is asking a lot of his horse.

8- Fortuna

I think Graham is messing with me now. At least this runner has some turf form, having run two subpar efforts on the turf as a two-year-old. But on paper, this horse doesn’t fit into the race, and Graham has to know that, though it hasn’t stopped him from shipping the horse up to New York anyway. The filly is entering this race off a nine-month layoff, didn’t run too well at two, and will be asked to run a distance substantially farther than she’s ever had to run. He still recruits Luis Saez, and has incredible statistics off of layoffs (24% off of 180+ days). This is a lot of thinking to lose to a Chad Brown horse.

Order: 4 2 5 8

I’ll try to beat Chad Brown in this one, which is never a profitable exercise in the long term. However, I feel as though Clemente will have his filly ready to go on first asking, and if that’s the case, she’ll prove tough here. I don’t believe that both Motion runners will finish in the top four, but I can’t choose between the two puzzles either, so I’ll slot them in at third and fourth and hope they don’t beat my proven commodities up top.

 

Race 3

$14,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This race is rough. These horses are either taking dramatic drops in class or are too inconsistent to regularly rely on as a bettor. I usually require consistency in a horse before I invest, but I took my best shot in forming a top four below:

6- Ari’s Naughty Luca

I actually won some money with this horse back in September. It wasn’t my type of race and it wasn’t my type of pick, and even then, it felt like a fluke. I had him on the right day there, but I may be stumbling on him at the right time again. He wasn’t racing well at all right up until the layoff, when he woke up a little with a solid front running performance in a race setting up for closers. His work tab during the break has been solid, and in a race like this, the connections don’t matter as much. I’m betting he comes back strong today at a price.

7- Other Things Equal

I’m not concerned with this gelding’s last race before the layoff. To win that race, he would’ve needed a perfect trip, and he couldn’t have been much wider around the turn. I can forgive that. What I struggle to compensate for is the cutback to six furlongs on a dramatic drop in class. If Chad Brown had him running almost exclusively at a mile before he was claimed, then I’m inclined to believe this horse prefers routes. Yet, trainer Steve Asmussen has him sprinting for a $14,000 price tag. He’s the best horse in the field, but I’ll take a stab and try to beat him.

9- Bears Mafia

Races like these require an intimate knowledge of the claiming conditions at Belmont Park, which make them a tedious and uninteresting mental exercise for me. This horse was overmatched at $20,000, but has speed figures that make him superior against this field at $14,000. Was the poor performance last race a result of the competition around him or was it a sign that this horse is done? I’ll be honest when I say that I don’t really want to think about it, so I’m putting this horse third and moving on to more exciting races.

5- Latin Love Bug

If I have this horse fourth, then it shows how little I care for the race. He has an aversion to the winner’s circle, but he’s in shape and trainer Joe Parker is getting him some class relief. I think he’ll stick around late.

Order: 6 7 9 5

This isn’t the sort of race that I enjoy looking at for too long, but my top selection does inspire a little confidence. He’ll need some of the class droppers to be dropping for the wrong reasons, but I believe he’ll give a good account of himself, and that’s all I can hope for.

Race 4

$32,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

There are several in here dropping in class, which always creates a difficult puzzle for the handicapper to solve. Still, this is a capable bunch that should put on a good race. My top four:

6- Hoffenheim

This gelding is finding a much softer spot after being overwhelmed in his first race of 2020 back in March. The distance is a question, but I’d guess that it’s something he can handle. He’s needed class relief for a long time, and while speed figures in the 90s are probably unlikely to return, a solid performance is still reasonable. 

3- Leitone (Chi)

It feels like there’s a horse in every race that’s been previously trained by Jason Servis. That’s making me rather paranoid, as I’m more wary of doped horses now than I’ve ever been before. This one was a little in over his head last year, and high-percentage trainer Rob Atras is trying to find him a soft landing spot for his first race of the meet. He was a good horse before Servis got a hold of him, and he’ll be getting the lead to himself here. One just has to wonder if the drop in class is a little drastic.

5- Creative Style

This gelding broke the conditional claiming level last February and and ran fairly well last week in his first unconditioned claimer. Eddie Barker brings him within seven days and stretches him back out to a route, though perhaps the extra sixteenth is a little longer than this one would prefer. Barker is winless when bringing horses back within a week, but this one stands a chance in this field.

1- Shadow Rider

This horse is regularly beaten in allowance competition, but in his one recent start in a claiming race, he won by a nose at Aqueduct with an 86 BSF. Claiming races at Belmont are traditionally tougher than those at Aqueduct, but this horse should still be running a little in the stretch.

Order: 6 3 5 1

I just think Hoffenheim outmatches his opponents and will be ready to go today. Leitone is always dangerous, but I’d love to see him in at least one race under a different barn. Creative Style and Shadow Rider fill out the top four, but I consider them to be a step below, as they’ll require regression from more than one of their fellow runners.

 

Race 5

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for Fillies Three Years Old and Up, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

I like this race. Turf sprints aren’t necessarily given much recognition stateside, but they’re a lot of fun to study on paper. I’ve narrowed it down to two horses, but list my top four below:

7- Miss You Blues

This filly may be tough in here as the only four-year-old in the race (long shot Sassy Secret is five and the rest of the field is three). In 2019, she held her own several times in maiden special weights, despite never being favored to win at that level. Charlton Baker finally drops her down to the maiden claiming level for her first race of 2020, and she’s shown she can handle six furlongs at Belmont. There are some interesting options in here, particularly my selection for second, but they all may simply be overmatched.

4- Yellen

I don’t believe that this filly could be more well placed by trainer Wesley Ward. If not for the favorite, this one would deserve a surefire win bet. Looking back at her two-year-old campaign on the turf, her best performance came at Kentucky Downs in September at six and a half furlongs. There’s a big difference between turf sprints at five and six furlongs, and this horse clearly preferred the latter, running second with a 58 BSF. Now Ward brings her to Belmont and drops her into maiden claiming competition while adding Jose Ortiz. This will be her first race at three on the turf, and I think she’ll be ready.

5- Translate

I’m not particularly interested in many of the other runners with experience, so I’ll take a stab with a few of the first time starters. This filly enters at the maiden claiming level for trainer Tom Morley. He’s 1-for-2 debuting horses at this level, and he recruits Junior Alvarado, one of his more profitable jockeys, to ride. The horse is pretty quick in the morning and might have a say on first asking.

11- Chic Bella

Trainer Danny Gargan is one of the few top trainers that consistently uses jockey Kendrick Carmouche, and he usually uses him for the same thing. Breaking from the 11-post, this filly will almost certainly be forwardly placed early, and maybe she’ll be close near the end.

Order: 7 4 5 11

Yellen appears to be a very intriguing runner, and would normally warrant a win bet. However, Miss You Blues is a filly I consider too tough to pass on. The third and fourth selections are first time starters I consider to have a chance to stick around in the late stages.

 

Race 6

$25,000 Claiming for Fillies Three Years Old and Up, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

I’d bet this one at Aqueduct for lack of action, but at Belmont, there are more interesting races out there. Even still, I took a stab at it with my selections below:

7- Excess Capacity

I don’t understand the move to turf in the last race, but at least the class drop makes sense for this mare. She was running well in starter allowances and claiming races and wasn’t performing well in allowances, so Toscano drops her back to a comfortable level for her second start off the layoff. In these races, I don’t necessarily pay attention to the end result, as these horses could race one another ten times and all eight would find the wire first. In her loss to Mo Flash in February, she dug in and clearly expressed interest in keeping the lead before eventually settling for second. She wasn’t great in her next start and performed dismally in a turf allowance earlier in the month, but she’s been fast in recent workouts and might show up in this one.

3- Queen Kahen

I don’t necessarily understand the drop or the turf race coming off the layoff, as this horse was doing just fine against allowance competition on the dirt at Aqueduct. Of course she has a strong chance of winning, but there are others in here to contend with her, and if she’s lost her fastball, she won’t be able to overcome this field.

2- Mo Flash

She won her last race, and while this may sound rudimentary, these horses rarely win two in a row. She may also need a race or two to return to form, though it is encouraging to see Jose Lezcano return to ride.

6- Miss Jak

This mare finished a neck behind fellow runner Mo Flash back in November, so she fits in with this field. Trainer Rob Atras isn’t great off the layoff, but Manny Franco stays to ride. She’ll be around, but may just need a race.

Order: 7 3 2 6

I get the sense that Excess Capacity will fire today, while I think some of the others may need a race. This one is still winless at this distance, but I think that’s more coincidental. It’s important to note that all four included here have a fair chance, and a couple others I didn’t include might stagger across the line first too.

Race 7

$40,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Bred in NY, Seven Furlongs on the Widener Turf

I guess I just prefer the turf, because this is another race I enjoyed mulling over. Turf sprints are kind of split into two different kinds of races, with five furlongs and six furlongs making a bigger difference than one might think. I tried my best to look for horses that would handle the added distance and faded those I thought would be less suited to it:

11- A Little Faith (SCRATCHED)

Bruce Levine may not be the best trainer in the country, but he knows how to handle a good horse. This filly hasn’t taken a step out of place since starting back in June, regularly competing at every level she’s raced at. In her last race of 2019, a defeat behind fellow runner First Appeal, she was caught behind horses in the stretch and couldn’t make up ground late. She comes off a long layoff, but so do many of her competitors, and her workout tab has been steady since April. John Velasquez returns to ride for a filly that loves the Belmont turf and should handle seven furlongs well based on her performances at similar distances last year.

9- Lovely La La

This former Chad Brown trainee moves to Michelle Nevin’s barn for her first start of 2020. Back in October, she closed fast on a track that favored that running style, though she tends to have more tactical speed early in races. She always makes a run, though she hasn’t won a race since 2018, but Nevin’s statistics with newcomers and long breaks may make this a difficult task despite her natural ability.

8- First Appeal

Another mare that struggles to find the winner’s circle, this Brad Cox runner is very honest going six and seven furlongs. In her last race of 2020, in which she finished ahead of fellow runner A Little Faith, she had a clear path in the stretch but didn’t seem particularly interested in making up the necessary ground to win. She should be in the mix, but like Lovely La La, I’m not favoring her for the top spot.

7- Out of Trouble

My main knock on this mare is her lack of experience sprinting. She’s a very capable router, and seven furlongs isn’t a dramatic cutback, but there are just horses in this field that are built for this distance. The second Cox runner gets Joel Rosario, another great rider, and in a wide open competition, this mare stands as solid a chance as anyone.

Order: 11 9 8 7 (Update: The 11, A Little Faith, has been scratched.)

I hate having all of these outside horses in a turf sprint, but that’s how it shakes out sometimes. I think Levine’s runner, while lightly raced here, is best suited to the distance and was the most visually impressive last year. The trickiest thing in this race is the many layoffs to account for, and there’ll be a bit of guessing with that for at least a few more weeks in New York. I took my best shot here, and bet that Out of Trouble won’t be as well suited to the cutback as her talented counterparts.

Race 8

$40,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Bred in NY, Six and a Half Furlongs on Dirt

Here’s the first dirt race of the day that I feel might be a fun watch for sportsmen, and that’s good, because it’s supposed to be the classiest dirt race of the day. There are some hard knocking horses in here, and I’m willing to go against a favored former Jason Servis trainee, if only for the moral high ground:

6- Summer Bourbon

This gelding was rolling at Aqueduct before the pandemic layoff put him on the shelf with the rest of the state of New York. He wasn’t as sharp in his first race back earlier in the month, but that was a stiff field in open company and he may have needed a race. I think Rudy Rodriguez’s winless streak with Joel Rosario is more coincidental than correlated to the quality of the horses, and that race earlier in the month gives this one an edge over the rest of the main competitors in this field. A lot of pace up front won’t hurt this one’s chances either.

9- The Caretaker

This six-year-old is a deep closer and always needs a hot pace to have a chance. Fortunately, he’s getting one here with at least three speedballs going down on the rail. Tom Morley claimed this one off of Rudy Rodriguez before the break, and I trust Rodriguez in the claiming game a lot more than I do Morley. Based on the horse’s form though, he should be capable of making a big run in this one. Other than the trainer switch, the only question lies in the horse’s condition coming off the layoff.

1- Eye Luv Lulu (SCRATCHED)

This Jason Servis angle is the worst racing development for handicappers. Once the thought of doping enters one’s mind, other questions begin to arise. Why would new trainer Rob Atras take a perennial statebred stakes runner, put him in an optional claimer and then opt to put a claiming tag on him? Why did the horse perform poorly in his last start before the layoff? In a competitive race, I don’t want to pay to find out.

2- Leaky Cup

This gelding needs an uncontested lead in order to run his best race, and I doubt he gets one here. He’s fast, and he may be able to cling to the front runners in the stretch, but I don’t see him hitting the front of the pack.

Order: 6 9 1 2 (Update: The 1, Eye Luv Lulu, has been scratched.)

My top two selections could very easily be switched, but I’ll hesitantly go with Summer Bourbon on top. I’m betting on a swift pace up front setting up for closers, which hasn’t been a given at Belmont recently but isn’t impossible under the right circumstances either. A few should go to the lead early, and hopefully that leads to a strong pace.

 

Race 9

Sir Cat Stakes (Ungraded), Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

This feature race will be swallowed up by the huge racing card tomorrow, and that’s a shame, because this one’s got it all. There’s a lethal speedball, a dead closer, a Breeders’ Cup runner, and jockey Trevor McCarthy. Alright, maybe that last one isn’t as exciting, but honestly, when’s the last time he’s been at Belmont? As the feature, and an entertaining one at that, I’ve decided to provide analysis for all of the entrants, listed below:

1- Maxwell Esquire

As a two-year old, this NY-bred colt held his own in deeper waters with consistently honest efforts regardless of his competition. In his first start as a three-year-old, he seemed to have a little trouble kicking into gear in the stretch but still ran well for show money. It was an improvement over his performances as a two-year old, but he still may find himself overwhelmed against others in here.

2- Jack and Noah (Fr)

This colt always runs like his hair is on fire, which is nice to see in a sprinter. He demonstrated an affinity for six furlong sprints as a two-year old and proved to be a little weary going a mile back in January. His second race as a three-year-old was brilliant, dashing out to the lead and almost holding on before finally giving it up to fellow runner Chimney Rock. The only knock on this one coming second off the layoff is that he likely won’t rate; if someone, namely So Street, decides to push him, it’s more likely that he’ll try to push through rather than sit and wait. This might hurt his chances in the stretch.

3- Old Chestnut

I wonder what would have happened if this horse had stayed in Canada. He was running very well as a two-year-old at Woodbine, but regressed with every race before turning in an abysmal performance on the yielding turf at Aqueduct to end his season. He returned to racing in February and made a fair showing on the dirt, but I’d prefer to side with others in this one.

4- Guildsman (Fr)

A deep closer running at five and a half furlongs always has a tall order, which may explain why this French colt has struggled to break through in the states thus far. In his last race in May, a third place finish behind fellow runners Chimney Rock and Jack and Noah, he was flying while weaving in and out of traffic, but simply ran out of time. This gelding has performed well at six furlongs overseas, and will finally get some added distance stateside. If there’s a strong pace up front for Jack and Noah, expect this one to pick up the pieces.

5- Turned Aside

One of only two in here that’s still unraced at three, this colt by American Pharoah will get some love on the board for his performance back in November. He pulled away condescendingly from fellow runner Maxwell Esquire to notch an allowance win at Aqueduct, a new personal best performance to end the year. He comes back here off the layoff for Linda Rice, who is still somehow winless at Belmont. This colt has been lightning quick in four straight workouts and could improve as a three-year-old on first asking.

6- Mr. Shortandsimple

This colt will only run if the race is taken off the turf, which is unlikely. Short and simple.

7- Chimney Rock

He ran the perfect race to run down Jack and Noah in an allowance at Churchill this past May. Granted, he found a perfect trip, but there’s no reason it can’t happen again. The colt’s never run at Belmont before, but that’s not as concerning as the distance. This horse seems to be highly efficient at five and five and a half furlongs, but six furlongs is a tad bit different. From the likely favorite and former runner-up in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, I’d like to be a little more certain he can bring the same performance to a slightly longer sprint. Even still, I won’t be surprised if he can handle these.

8- So Street

Jockey Trevor McCarthy picked up some mounts throughout the day, but this is what he’s here for. This gelding ran fairly well throughout his two-year-old season, but improved significantly in his last race in November. At 32-1, he ran behind leader and fellow runner Jack and Noah, and while he didn’t pass the speedster, he held on for show money with a 76 BSF. He’s been off since, and enters into a very stout field, tougher than any he’s had to face thus far in his career. His presence in the race creates an interesting dynamic though, as his early speed may be utilized to contend with Jack and Noah. Manny Franco chose to sit back with him in their last encounter, but McCarthy hasn’t been as hesitant with this colt in the past.

Order: 4 2 7 5

It’s tough to go against a Breeders’ Cup runner, and if this race was at five furlongs, I wouldn’t be. I still think Chimney Rock will give a good account of himself, but I think Jack and Noah will be a little tougher this time around as well. I’m betting that he gets pushed along up front, and if he does, Guildsman getting an extra half furlong might be a dangerous prospect indeed. 

 

Race 10

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf

After nine races of analysis, I was exhausted when preparing myself for this one. The fact that this is the type of race that makes my eyes glaze over didn’t help. My top four below:

11- Roziere

It’s 3 in the morning, and these selections are all that’s keeping me from launching this website. This filly showed very little on dirt before running an excellent race on the turf in November. That’s good enough for me, especially considering that trainer Danny Gargan strikes with 40% of horses laid off for over 180 days.

12- Lucky Latkes

I don’t know if this horse can run, but I know for a fact that there are several fillies here that can’t. Clemente sends out this first time starter with Manny Franco aboard, and he tends to know how to find a spot for this type of horse. Why not take a shot at the end of the day?

10- Topaz Bride

This filly could very well win the race stepping down to maiden claiming competition, and Luis Saez returns to ride. This horse clearly preferred the turf at two, but it’s unclear whether she’ll fire fresh off the long layoff.

4- Courted

This race has very few convincing turf runners in it, and this one happens to be one such filly. She wasn’t stellar in her turf start earlier this year, but this will be the softest field she’s found yet and she stands to improve in her second start off the layoff.

Order: 11 12 10 4

It’s a shame a lot of subpar runners took up the inside posts, but in this race, it might not matter. There are only a few horses in here that have any form at all on the turf, and I just picked four proven commodities. If anyone feels like getting creative, I’d give them my blessing, but I didn’t see much here.