Tomorrow’s card at Belmont is the one most worth playing, but this is a fairly inoffensive card for hardcore handicappers to peruse on a long holiday weekend.
For many years now, July 3 has been a designated Belmont day on my calendar, and a fun one at that. Today, one of my friends and handicapping mentors celebrates his birthday, and like so many that read this blog, his idea of the perfect day is one spent playing the horses with his friends and family in the backyard at Belmont. Unfortunately, we’re unable to celebrate this year as we usually do, but if he’s watching at home, I’d like to wish him luck. Hopefully there are some jazzy selections that get him jumping, today and for many years hereafter. Let’s take a look at the card.
Note: The tenth race has not yet been included here. That will be updated by post time.
Race 1
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight, Five and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This is a race for first time starters, and they’re talented, but my analysis is useless in these. Let’s get to it:
3- Winfromwithin
Todd Pletcher is 21% with first time starters. I have it on good authority that John Velasquez is a talented jockey. This colt has a 388 Tomlinson for the distance and is very quick in the morning.
6- My Sea Cottage (Ire)
Mark Casse is 17% with first time starters. I have it on good authority that Joel Rosario is a talented jockey. The colt only has a 264 Tomlinson for the distance, but he’s been training very well in the morning. If fellow runner Indoctrinate is scratched, then this horse’s chances improve significantly.
1- Indoctrinate
This colt ran well in his first race, finishing third behind Prisoner and Fauci, two very impressive young colts. He was still running in the end and appeared interested in what he was doing. Junior Alvarado returns to ride for Mark Casse, who’s 17% with second time starters. If fellow runner My Sea Cottage is scratched, then this horse’s chances improve significantly.
4- Explain
A Pennsylvania-Bred is always welcome in this sport ruled by the bluegrass. Michael Maker recruits Irad Ortiz to ride and this horse has a very solid workout tab recently. There’s not much else to go on, but that might be enough.
Order: 3 6 1 4
Winfromwithin is the type of horse that wins these. Explain isn’t, but they can all win here based on the information given. Have some fun with this one.
Race 2
$25,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf
This is a pretty uninteresting race, and nothing jumped off the page at me. I found a fairly obvious top selection, but there are several in here that could improve to beat her. My top four:
1- Take Charge Tina
This mare was competing well at a much higher level as of March down at Gulfstream. Two starts back, she surprised a starter allowance field at 13-1 in what probably represents her best possible performance. That being said, Dominick Schettino brings back Luis Saez to ride, and a similar performance would handle this field easily.
11- Beach Dreaming
This horse is almost never the best horse in the field, but she still manages to find the winner’s circle regularly enough. She’s a very consistent runner that’s been competing at Gulfstream for a very long time. She moves up north here for new trainer Mertkan Kantarmarci, who’s actually pretty successful with newcomers to her barn. This horse may be hurt by the outside post, but she’s overcome such obstacles in the past.
2- Factoring
There’s only one recent performance that qualifies this horse as a contender, but fortunately, it was in her race earlier this month. After several months at the conditional claiming level, she finally broke through in her first start of this Belmont meet. It was a perfect trip at a sprint distance, but it was a 73 BSF that fits here. Michelle Nevin could have this one ready to go again, but this is asking a lot of a horse that just started to put the pieces together last time out.
10- Blue Atlas
Anyone know the quality of turf allowances at Delaware Park? I’m all ears. Based on her speed figures last year, she fits in this race, though that last start before the layoff is somewhat concerning. Jose Ortiz is always a positive addition, but she may need a race, as Horacio DePaz doesn’t have stellar statistics off of layoffs.
Order: 1 11 2 10
I think Take Charge Tina is simply a step above her competition here, provided she runs well coming off of a layoff. Beach Dreaming strikes me as a clear second choice, while Factoring and Blue Atlas have serious drawbacks preventing me from considering them for a higher position.
Race 3
$14,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Three Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
This race is one of the more wide open contests on this card, but it’s not the type of race I enjoy. I’m a big race guy in a small race world. I took a stab at it as I always do, and I’m content with my selections:
1- Movie Score
I’m not fond of this horse’s tail. It’s ratty, not nearly enough swish. Anyway, if not for a tough stretch run in her last start, this filly wouldn’t be eligible for this race. She lacked room in between horses but still managed to re-rally, closing fast to take third. Hector Diaz was riding her off of the layoff, and he’s being replaced by Luis Saez. I would bet this horse regardless, but Saez’s addition indicates that improvement may even be possible.
6- Hetty G.
Wesley Ward isn’t messing around this meet, and hasn’t brought up many disappointing horses. This horse just broke through a conditional claiming level at Churchill, but the Beyer was good. Jose Ortiz takes the assignment, and he has two wins in five starts with Ward at Belmont. She’s a little questionable on paper, but I feel she’s here for a reason. It’s an interesting placement.
2- Kinky Sox
I’m nearly convinced that the 65 BSF she earned in her last start is incorrect. The second place runner in that race, Rousey, had also never run anything near that figure, and yet they both improved on first asking off the layoff. Rousey turned in a fine, but insufficient, performance yesterday, and there’s no reason that this one can’t do so either. That being said, I don’t believe she’s as fast as she appears on paper, and people blindly playing speed figures may overbet this one.
8- Bennys Big Tribute
Irad Ortiz is a very difficult man to deny as of late, but this horse is beatable here. This is her first race since March and many of her competitors have already made their return to the track. On top of that, her form at Aqueduct this winter was subpar at best. Rudy Rodriguez understands this level of racing better than anyone in New York, so I have to include this runner. That being said, I prefer others.
Order: 1 6 2 8
If Movie Score can secure a better trip here, I think she’ll be tough in her second start off the layoff. Every other horse in the race has a significant problem. Hetty G. has been in cheaper races at Churchill, I don’t believe Kinky Sox’s last performance is as impressive as it seems and Bennys Big Tribute still has to get a race in off the layoff.
Race 4
$50,000 Starter Allowance, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
As far as I’m concerned, this is a race for second place. After my top selection, things get a little tricky, and I did my best to differentiate between a few evenly matched runners:
7- Keota
Alright, so this is a former Jason Servis trainee. But really, how much would this horse have to regress to lose here? Chad Brown is somehow a trainer upgrade, and this horse was excellent in stakes competition at Gulfstream. I’d be hard pressed to see this horse struggling in this spot.
5- Gloriously
Something is drawing me to this runner. Her career’s been stunted thus far by rain; three of her five turf starts were rained off, making it difficult to fully assess her ability. What’s clear is that this is her preferred surface. Jimmy Jerkens has been very cold this year, but worked well with Junior Alvarado last year at Belmont. Alvarado had a choice to make and elected to ride this filly, and in a fight for second, she may have a say.
4- Jen’s Battle
This filly is stepping up in class, but she’s never run a bad race either, so she’s the type that can handle slightly deeper waters. Her last two races have been commanding victories over weaker fields, and Robert Falcone enters her in a more competitive spot here. She should be a little more challenged, but there’s no reason to suspect she won’t run well.
1- Dancingwthdaffodls
As of late, her most recent performance is the only one that qualifies her for this race. It was a solid performance in statebred competition, and Eduardo Jones recruits Jose Ortiz again for a foray into open company. She has as good a chance as any in a fight for second place.
Order: 7 5 4 1
Keota is too much for this field, even if she takes a step back in form for… Chad Brown. Yeah, I don’t think that’s happening. Gloriously has some potential that I don’t believe has been realized just yet. Jen’s Battle hasn’t run a poor race in a long time, while Dancingwthdaffodls has run several but seems to be rounding into form.
Race 5
$32,000 Claiming, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
The early speed on display in this race is astounding, as five or six horses will likely try to contend early. This should set up well for closers, and although they were hard to find, I managed to find an interesting top selection:
6- Spokane Eagle
This gelding has an excellent name. More importantly, he’s demonstrated that he can close off the pace, which will help him immensely in what should be a race with very strong pace up front. Michael Pino is fairly successful after claiming a horse, but the presence of Irad Ortiz is more encouraging. This horse probably isn’t the best in the field, but this might be his day.
5- Eye Luv Lulu
This horse was scratched in a race a few weeks ago, when I wrote this:
This Jason Servis angle is the worst racing development for handicappers. Once the thought of doping enters one’s mind, other questions begin to arise. Why would new trainer Rob Atras take a perennial statebred stakes runner, put him in an optional claimer and then opt to put a claiming tag on him? Why did the horse perform poorly in his last start before the layoff? In a competitive race, I don’t want to pay to find out.
All of that remains true, only now the tag isn’t optional. Still, in this race, I’m simply looking for horses that can come from off the pace. This nine-year-old gelding fits the bill and warrants consideration, despite some glaring problems.
4- Aristocratic
This horse does one thing and one thing only. In a race full of early speed, he may still get to the front, as he’s one of the speediest horses in the state. His staying power against what should be very strong fractions, however, is more uncertain.
7- Seanow
Take what I said about Aristocratic and consider a post further outside.
Order: 6 5 4 7
I think Spokane Eagle should manage to capitalize on some very fast fractions to win this race with a solid trip. Eye Luv Lulu is not a favorite of mine, but his tactical speed may help him here in a race where he can sit off the pace. Aristocratic and Seanow are the most talented of several early runners, and might be able to hang on for minor prizes.
Race 6
$80,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of One Race, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt
Several runners here are headed for stakes competition, which makes this an interesting prep race for horses that will likely be overwhelmed in their next starts. There are two standouts here, while everyone else will have to improve to catch them:
7- Spice Is Nice
In only three races, this filly’s been quick to establish herself. After demolishing a maiden special weight field at Gulfstream, she immediately followed up with a second place finish in the G2 Davona Dale. She broke slowly in her last race, another Grade 2 stakes, and struggled to make up ground, but still managed to finish fifth in a 12-horse field. She’ll be very tough today in her first start off the layoff for Todd Pletcher.
5- Say Moi
Don’t look now, but Bill Mott may have a runner here. In her second and most recent start, this filly ran very well to break her maiden with a solid 81 BSF. She enters this race against an adversary that may prove too much, but I would keep an eye out for her in any case.
6- Tonal Vision
This filly is probably a step below the top two, but in her last start, she had a difficult trip while going very wide to finish third. Mark Casse brings her back in this seven-horse field, and I seriously doubt she’ll get such a trip again. It is disconcerting, though, to see Jose Ortiz leaving to ride fellow runner Vigilantes Way.
4- Vigilantes Way
Her last race was a little disappointing, though it may have been asking a lot of this horse to come back strong off of a maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs. Shug McGaughey brings her to New York, and she seems to be a little out of her depth. However, it’s nice to see Jose Ortiz tag along for the ride.
Order: 7 5 6 4
If all goes well, Spice Is Nice and Say Moi should finish one-two, most likely in that order. Tonal Vision and Vigilantes Way are fine runners in their own right, but they appear to be a little behind here.
Race 7
$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This race is one of many just like it at the Belmont meet this year. These fields are generally very big and provide value, though they usually can be boiled down to a few qualified runners, as I did here:
7- Magnolia’s Lady
In her first start, this filly ran very well despite some trouble in the stretch. She capitalized on a rail trip but failed to find room late, which forced her to angle out. Even then, she still ran on to take fourth. Linda Rice is brilliant with maidens on their second start, and a better trip could be very beneficial for this runner.
12- Snicket
Is it just me, or have Christophe Clement’s maidens had some tough luck when drawing post positions? Based on this filly’s second start, she has a significant edge on this field. She closed very well in that race to finish second with a 67 BSF. Joel Rosario returns to ride and she has an excellent chance here, but I’ve decided to go against her a little due to the wide run she’ll have to make to win.
3- Lemoncella
When a 12% trainer wins 27% of the time with any angle, you have to give the horse a second look. Cherie DeVaux is excellent with first time starters and recruits Junior Alvarado to ride a filly with a 379 Tomlinson and reasonable workouts. She may be worth a shot here.
6- Bankers Beast
This horse is vaguely interesting as Michael Stidham first time starters go. The trainer works well with Manny Franco and this filly has a few good workouts that indicate she’s in condition. She may be worth a wager for a very trustworthy turf trainer.
Order: 7 12 3 6
I chose Magnolia’s Lady as my first choice a week ago, but she was scratched that day and I’ve been forced to wait. I think she finds another reasonable spot here. Snicket is the most qualified runner here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she found the wire first. Lemoncella and Bankers Beast strike me as interesting first time starters at a price.
Race 8
$56,000 Allowance for NY-Bred Non-Winners of One Race, 1 Mile on the Dirt
The dynamic of this race changed following the scratch of the 2B, Big Thicket, so I rewrote my analysis to suit the new scenario. Beyond that, this appears to be a straightforward, fairly average race. My top four:
2- Yankee Division
I’m not great at picking horses to wire fields, but that’s likely what this horse is going to try to do. His last race can easily be explained away by the wet track, which he’s struggled on in the past. He returns to a fast track here and Rudy Rodriguez replaces Jorge Vargas with Luis Saez in the saddle for his second start of the layoff. He’ll likely get a comfortable lead up front, and if he can return to his form last year, he could be dangerous here.
3- Six Percent
Jimmy Jerkens hasn’t been very profitable this year and doesn’t do well with newcomers to his barn. However, I’m impressed by some of his performances as a three-year-old for Brad Cox, and there’s a possibility he takes a step forward at four. Javier Castellano stays on his regular mount despite the trainer change, and this horse has been very sharp in the morning. He’s in with a solid chance.
1- Danny California
1A- Vintage Hollywood
In an evenly matched field, a two-for-one deal can never hurt. That being said, these two have issues that prevent me from taking the opportunity. Danny California has struggled to recapture his form from last year in his two 2020 starts, and Eric Cancel is replacing Joel Rosario. Meanwhile, Vintage Hollywood has been performing very well lately, but has repeatedly missed the winner’s circle. They’re both qualified in here, but I’d rather take one horse that I’m confident in than two that I question.
5- Bourbon Bay
This three-year-old enters very deep waters against older horses, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a fine runner himself. He raced well in juvenile statebred stakes at two but struggled in his three-year-old debut. However, Mark Hennig places him confidently in this race and Jose Lezcano returns to ride. He’s a solid maybe.
Order: 2 3 1/1A 5
I originally had the 2/2B entry in the top spot, but Yankee Division is good enough on his own to remain there. He’ll try to wire them here, and I like his chances. Six Percent has a fair chance here in his four-year-old debut, even as Jimmy Jerkens searches for his first win at the Belmont meet. The 1/1A entry is competent, but neither horse was compelling enough for me to take the two-for-one deal. Bourbon Bay has a lot to do here as an overmatched three-year-old.
Race 9
License Fee Stakes (Ungraded), Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is an excellent turf sprint featuring several runners that are qualified at higher levels of racing. There were several angles to consider in a field that provided a lot of variety on paper:
8- Dalika
She ran brilliantly in her first start off the layoff at Churchill, driving away from a field that included Mentality, a talented filly that won in her next start. Albert Stall wouldn’t waste his time coming to Belmont, and this horse seems to be the real deal.
4- I’llhandalthecash
Ray Handal’s namesake filly has had some nightmare trips recently. She was flying in the stretch in her last race before checking badly. She rallied again but had to settle to fourth, and was then promoted to third following a disqualification. Throughout the trouble, she’s still been running well recently, which means that a good trip could yield an even better result in her second start off the layoff. She’s also proven she can handle the distance, and she has a win on the Belmont inner turf.
3- Getmotherarose
Thomas Bush hasn’t been doing well recently, but I don’t believe he’s incompetent. He wouldn’t have entered her in the G3 Intercontinental if he didn’t think she was prepared for it, and he wouldn’t enter her here if he wasn’t confident she would rebound. Earlier this year, this filly was fantastic down at Gulfstream, and before that, she had a lot of success on the Belmont inner turf. It’s possible that she may just be taking a step back in form, but she’s in a perfect position to turn things around in this six-furlong stakes.
1- Bridlewood Cat
I’m rather fond of Jonathan Thomas, and I tend to trust his opinion. This horse has been running extremely well on dirt, and actually showed some resilience in her last start. She stumbled badly at the start and had to play the unfamiliar role of deep closer. She made up five lengths in the stretch but just missed in an eye catching effort. If Thomas believes that this horse can handle the turf, and she’s had so much success in the dirt, then I’m inclined to believe she can have a say here.
Order: 8 4 3 1
Dalika has been stupendous in her recent starts, and I look forward to seeing her in this one. I’llhandalthecash and Getmotherarose both have excuses in their last starts and are being put in excellent positions to win by trainers Ray Handal and Thomas Bush, respectively. Bridlewood Cat is a horse I’ll be taking some sort of shot, if only for my unwavering (and recently unprofitable) support of Jonathan Thomas.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
It seems like every Belmont card ends in a statebred maiden race, which makes me wonder if they grow these horses on trees. This one is no different from the others, and the top four feels familiar as well:
9- Adios Amigos
Why would John Terranova put this horse on the dirt in his four-year-old debut? Despite running on his secondary surface, he still ran relatively well, and returns to the turf here for his second start off the layoff. Some of his races at three were very competitive, and if he can replicate them here, he can win. If he improves on them, he’ll win by daylight. If John Terranova, who’s winless in turf sprints this year, retained Javier Castellano for nothing, then I suppose he’ll cost me some money.
10- Determined One
I’m not exactly sure what’s drawing me to this gelding, but I find myself unable to toss him. At three, he struggled mightily in turf routes against maiden special weight competition and was quickly put on the shelf for the back half of 2019. Thomas Morley isn’t great coming off of layoffs, and he entered his horse in a dirt sprint in February at Aqueduct, where he actually competed well, despite the fact that it’s probably not his preferred surface. Now, he finally enters him in a turf sprint, which I personally think is his optimal race. Maybe he can outrun his odds.
7- Our Troubador
This horse has been knocking on the door for a very long time, but he’s been dangerously close to breaking through as of late. In his last race, he almost outdueled two runners around the track but came up short in a close photo finish. It was a vast improvement over his previous performances and could indicate that he can compete on turf after a long time toiling away on dirt.
6- Shandian
This is a very experienced three-year-old, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. However, in her first start off the layoff, she performed well in a turf sprint similar to this one. It’s easy to see now that this was her preferred surface and distance all along, which would indicate that she’s competitive here.
Order: 9 10 7 6
Adios Amigos isn’t a lock by any means, so I may get a little creative with Determined One, a long shot I have in second place. Our Troubador and Shandian are always competitive in turf sprints, but there’s not much evidence to suggest they’ll make the necessary improvements.