If I were to identify an ordinary day at Belmont, this would be the card. There’s nothing too special scheduled, but it’s still a perfectly acceptable card to pass some time with should you have the day to mull it over.
Race 1 (OFF THE TURF)
$64,000 Maiden Special Weight for Two-Year-Olds, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This is a fairly straightforward first time starter race. Pick a horse and move on, and if the rain takes it off the turf, then skip it. My top four:
6- King of Miami
Wesley Ward wins 29% of the time with first time starters, and he’s two-for-six with Jose Ortiz at the meet. This horse’s 333 Tomlinson for the distance is a little weak, but this colt’s been good in the morning to toss over a figure
2- Pitaman
Graham Motion doesn’t send out many of his firsters to win. However, he does work well with Junior Alvarado, and both men have been very convincing this year in spots where they didn’t belong on paper. This horse has as good a chance as any to make some noise on first asking.
5- Blame the Booze
Wesley Ward wins 29% of the time with first time starters, but with two horses in there, I have to be careful when evaluating his options. King of Miami will he ridden by Jose Ortiz, while this runner while have Manny Franco in the saddle. That tells me that one has a slight edge over the other, though this runner could obviously do some running as well.
4- Scarlett Sky (SCRATCHED)
There’s nothing lacking about this horse on paper, and Shut McGaughey is actually profitable with first time starters. My problem is the presence of Eric Cancel. McGaughey is scraping the bottom of the barrel to find a jockey for this colt’s first race, which immediately tells bettors that he may need a race.
Order: 6 2 5 4 (Note: This race has been taken off the turf. The 4, Scarlett Sky, is scratched.)
Order on Dirt: No
King of Miami appears to be the better of the two Ward horses, while Pitaman offers some more value for Graham Motion. Scarlett Sky may need a race based on her trainer’s choice in jockey.
Race 2 (OFF THE TURF)
$25,000 Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This is a generally competitive race that doesn’t feature much beyond a few credible runners. It’s a fair race to bet, but likely won’t produce anything special or memorable. My top four, assuming it’s run on the turf:
4- Banana Thief (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
Based on his form last year, this gelding appears to be a step above the other runners in here. As an eight-year-old, I’m a little concerned that he may be done. However, until he demonstrates that on the track, I can assume that his performance won’t suffer with age. He tends to tail off at the end of each season, which could explain why the race in November was a step below his earlier races, and he’s proven that he can fire fresh off of this type of layoff. Jose Ortiz rides for Steve Asmussen on a very credible runner, and if it comes down to a photo, as it often does with this runner, Ortiz tends to get their heads down first.
8- War Stroll (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
Entering his last race, this gelding hadn’t won a race since September 2018. That was hardly a factor though, as he appeared powerful in the stretch as the only horse closing at 27-1 odds. It was an awesome performance, and Wayne Potts feels encouraged enough to ship him to New York, something he almost never does. There’s going to be some pace up front, which will obviously help him, and while Kendrick Carmouche isn’t known as a closing jockey, he’s not a disastrous hire for Potts either. This race is obviously much tougher than his last one at a cheaper claiming price at Laurel, but from both a trip handicapping and speed handicapping perspective, he fits well here.
1- Field of Courage
This gelding took a two-year break and came back as essentially the same horse. In his first start of 2020, there was no chance he was going to win after being swallowed up by closers in the stretch. However, the performance on paper looks worse than it actually is, as he was forced to check late in the stretch as he was already losing ground. Again, it wouldn’t have been enough to defeat a horse like Banana Thief or the field he was facing there, but he deserves a few points back in what was a very credible start off of such a long layoff. Now that he’s settled back into racing, maybe he can take a step forward.
9- Duncastle (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
If this gelding isn’t close to the lead, he wilts, which is what I think happened last time out. That can be forgiven, and it will be somewhat easier for him to keep in touch in this race. However, he’s more or less untested at the distance and has never won on the Belmont turf in five tries. Romero Maragh probably wasn’t the most attractive option for Thomas Morley either, so while this horse has a chance, I prefer others.
Order: 4 8 1 9 (Note: This race has been taken off the turf. The 4, Banana Thief, the 8, War Stroll, and the 9, Duncastle, are scratched.)
Order on Dirt: 2 6 3 11
Banana Thief should be able to handle this field if he picks up from where he left off last year. However, War Stroll is very intriguing to me as a Laurel invader, and I believe he warrants some consideration for the top spot as well. Field of Courage only needs to improve a little to contend here, and in his second start off the layoff, that’s not an unreasonable expectation. Duncastle will have to get close to the lead this time if he wants to win.
Race 3
$20,000 Maiden Claiming for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
A lot of horses are dropping in class in this race, which makes it hard to evaluate from other handicapping perspectives. Beyond that, it’s a pretty uninspiring maiden race. My top four:
7- Fulfill
This is a tricky race of horses that have seen better days. As a result, I’m looking for one that may be rounding into form, and I landed here. This gelding was really struggling earlier in the year but has slowly begun to find his stride. Stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth helped in his first start off the layoff, and Steve Asmussen chose to keep him at a route distance here. On their best days, this horse would be soundly defeated by fellow runners Road Home and Striking Speed. However, on their best days, those two runners wouldn’t be in this race, so I’m taking a small chance against them here.
8- Road Home
Bill Mott dropped this horse dramatically in his first start off the layoff, taking his maiden special weight competitor and putting him in for a $30,000 price tag. He was heavily favored, but ran very poorly in fifth behind fellow runner Fulfill. This is his second race off the layoff, which could obviosuly lead to improvement. However, Mott is dropping him even further today, which could indicate he’s more interested in selling him than winning with him.
9- Striking Speed (SCRATCHED)
Remember when fellow runner Road Home dropped dramatically in class, was heavily favored, and disappointed at a much lower level of racing? Yeah, I’d learn from that lesson. Earlier this year, this horse ran too well in a maiden special weight at Aqueduct to be entered here. That day, I doubt Linda Rice was looking to sell him for $20,000, but something’s obviously happened since then. He unsuccessfully tried the turf in his first start off the layoff and returns to the dirt here. Again, he could level this field with a consistent performance. However, he’s probably here for a reason, and I don’t want to take short odds on a horse lacking the confidence of his trainer.
4- Bona Fida
His first race wasn’t very good, but it never hurts to be lightly raced in this sort of race. Jeremiah Englehart drops him into maiden claiming competition, which is the right move for this horse and one that he succeeds doing. Manny Franco stays on, and maybe this horse does some running against lighter competition.
Order: 7 8 9 4 (Note: The 9, Striking Speed, is scratched.)
I’m taking Fulfill in the top spot because I believe he’s most likely to give me his best performance, while Road Home and Striking Speed are compromised in some way, or else they wouldn’t be racing at this level. Bona Fida will probably offer bettors a price on a lightly raced horse making a sensible drop.
Race 4
$12,500 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Dirt
My college tuition or one of these sad animals? With the possibility of online classes becoming more and more likely, Miss Jak is looking like a pretty enticing purchase. My top four in this low level claiming race:
2- Miss Jak
This mare is a consistent option against some very volatile runners. In her first start off the layoff, she performed very similarly to her starts earlier in the year, and while those were a step back from her 2019 form, they still make her a solid option in this race. There should be a decent pace up front for her to stalk, and breaking from the rail can ensure her a solid trip. Manny Franco and Rob Atras work well together, and I think that she can capitalize on the class relief this time around.
8- Cold Hearted Pearl
This mare isn’t fast enough to get the lead, but she likes to be close to the pace. That hurt her chances on several occasions as she tried to fight in duels that she couldn’t win, and it cost her in her last start. In this race, she’ll be forced to take a stalking trip, which will help her, and the small step down in competition can also help. She occasionally runs well enough to win a race like this, and in her second race off the layoff for Chris Englehart, today can be the day.
4- Camorra
This mare is going to have her hands full with Malibu Mischief to her outside, but her speed is competitive enough to contend. In her two races last month, she showed signs of regression against several runners she’ll be facing today, and it’s becoming increasingly harder to trust her, as it was at certain points last year. She’ll have to duel or give up the lead here, but she will likely get the rail, which gives her an advantage in any case. The rain may help her as well, as she’s run better in the slop in the past.
9- Cotton Candy Cutie
She hasn’t won a race in forever, but she’s always around. Her speed figures give her an outside chance of winning here, but as always, it’s more reasonable to expect her to run credibly for some minor purse money.
Order: 2 8 4 9
Miss Jak is taking a sensible drop here as Rob Atras tries to find her a sensible spot. I think he’s found it. Cold Hearted Pearl is also getting some class relief, but I believe she’ll be a little overwhelmed if she tries to compete for the early lead. Camorra is excellent in the wet, and in the case of a duel, will get the rail against Malibu Mischief.
Race 5 (OFF THE TURF)
$50,000 Starter Allowance for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf
This is the first interesting race of the day from a sports perspective, as these horses can improve on these performances to run at higher levels. Some are more tested than others, which makes for a good handicapping race with some variety. My top four, assuming a turf surface:
6- Kitten by the Sea (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
I don’t love this horse, but I don’t love anything else in the race either. In her last start, this filly improved dramatically to win a claiming race down at Gulfstream in front running fashion. She got an uncontested lead in that race which led to the 81 BSF, and it’s highly unlikely she gets the same trip again. That being said, she can still stalk the pace well enough, and if she can maintain anything close to her previous form she shouldn’t have much trouble for new trainer Todd Pletcher.
7- Overheated
This mare hasn’t won a race since March 2019, but but she’s shown some ability on the turf in a limited capacity. She ran on the turf in four starts in 2019, and in those starts, she showed an ability to compete well at Belmont and in routes. She was put back on dirt for the winter at Aqueduct, where she went back to struggling. This is her first race off the layoff and she finally returns to the grass, and there’s a good chance she regains her stride. My only issues are related to Ray Handal, who is winless when switching surfaces and largely unsuccessful off of long layoffs.
9- Princess Fawzia (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
She’s one of several horses in this race that ran well last time out in front running fashion. However, it appears that she’s the fastest of them, which makes me more confident in selecting her, as she stands a chance at duplicating her performance. She definitely surprised some bettors last time out when she improved from two to three for Linda Rice, and it’s clear now that she likes to race. Jose Lezcano returns to ride, and in her second start off the layoff, it wouldn’t take much improvement to win here.
3- Leeway (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
Christophe Clement’s horse’s haven’t always been taking that step forward from two to three, but this horse was rather promising in her three starts last year. She returns here off of a long layoff for her first try against winners, and Manny Franco takes the mount. He works well with Clement, but isn’t known as one of his most popular connections. I expect this horse to improve, but I’m not sure whether she can do enough to beat some of her fellow runners so soon.
Order: 6 7 9 3 (Note: This race has been taken off the turf. The 6, Kitten by the Sea, the 9, Princess Fawzia, and the 3, Leeway, have been scratched.)
Order on Dirt: 10 8 7 5
I’m dubious that Kitten by the Sea will be able to duplicate her performance last time out, but I still think she’s good enough to handle these. Overheated deserves some consideration as a mare with sneaky turf form, though she’s yet to break through with a win on the surface. Princess Fawzia has a real chance of getting another early lead with a slow pace, which makes her as dangerous here as she was last time out. Leeway will likely improve off the layoff for Christophe Clement, making her an interesting option.
Race 6
$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt
In my opinion, the top three contenders in this race all faced off against one another last time, in a maiden race won by Eloquent Speaker. I believe that all of their performances in this race will improve from that race, but figuring out who will improve the most is the challenge. Instead, I tried some pace handicapping when figuring out the top spot:
7- Vivazano
This filly had to be fast to outrun Jewel of Arabia last time out, but she did just that and continued to fight for the lead well into the stretch. It was a pretty solid first start, and trainer Philip Gleaves must know too. Since that race last month, he’s given his horse two more workouts to get some wind into him and called Christopher DeCarlo to ride. DeCarlo is a Monmouth jockey for a reason, but he knows how to get a front runner home, having ridden Green Gratto when he pulled off a stunning wire-to-wire upset in the 2017 G1 Carter Handicap. In his second start, I expect him to be even tougher in the stretch.
10- Jewel of Arabia
Last year, this horse ended her two-year-old campaign with a second place finish to Naked Avenger, who’s gone on to have a very solid statebred career. In his first race off the layoff, he didn’t show significant improvement but raced well to finish second ahead of fellow runner Vivizano. He’s been training better since then, which could indicate that he’ll improve in this start, and Manny Franco steps in for Joel Rosario to ride. He’s a very reasonable favorite.
9- Voice of Spring
I’m nervous placing this filly in third. She finished behind fellow runners Vivazano and Jewel of Arabia last time out, but he was moving very quickly at the end in an attempt to catch them. Linda Rice’s firsters rarely fire like that, so her success with second time starters really gives this runner a high ceiling. She may need a pace to close into, but I can’t visualize a scenario where she doesn’t show up.
8- Bonus Baby
Statebreds really shouldn’t travel outside of New York if their name isn’t Tiz the Law. This horse was overwhelmed in his first start at Oaklawn, and Jeremiah Englehart makes the wise decision here to bring her back to Belmont for a statebred race. Can she run? Visually, there’s not a compelling argument, but Englehart doesn’t waste his time when recruiting Junior Alvarado, so he must believe she can do some running in this softer spot.
Order: 7 10 9 8
Vivazano will get a clear lead if she wants it, and with DeCarlo aboard, I think she’ll have some more left late in her second start. Jewel of Arabia is the most well seasoned runner in contention here, and in her second start as a three-year-old, there’s evidence suggesting she may improve. Voice of Spring, meanwhile, is nearly guaranteed to improve and will take a better shot at Vivazano on the lead this time around. Bonus Baby is the outsider here, and there’s little reason to support her outside of Englehart’s recruitment of Alvarado.
Race 7 (OFF THE TURF)
$35,000 Claiming for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf
This race seems a little weak for this condition, and that’s reinforced by the fact that the likely favorite is trying this level for the first time. Several scratches don’t help either, and the rain I’m seeing as I look out the window this morning may make it even worse.
10- Noble Jewel (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
This filly was underbet in her last start at 3-1, as she struck me as a very obvious favorite. She ran professionally, if evenly, to win by a length over Doll, a talented but overbet filly that day. She moves into the next condition here, and it appears as though she’s found the right field to try and make it two in a row.
1- Brass Ring
This horse is always going to be undervalued because she’s trained by Leah Gyarmati. However, at a higher level of racing than this one, she’s outrun her odds on several occasions and even won a starter allowance at Saratoga. This is a much more reasonable spot for her, and after a rough stint at Aqueduct, she seems to be back in condition on the Belmont turf. I’d be careful tossing this one.
9- Merlins Muse (SCRATCHED, OFF THE TURF)
People will probably bet this horse in the hopes that he runs back to one of his races last year, and if he does that, he’ll win here. However, after three regressed starts and two losses at this condition, I’m prepared to say that this is the horse he is now. He can still compete here, but I think he’ll receive more attention that he deserves.
12- Roman City (SCRATCHED)
I was dubious about this horse’s ability to run the extra furlong. But now he’s scratched, so I don’t have to worry about it.
Order: 10 1 9 12 (Note: This race has been taken off the turf. The 10, Noble Jewel, the 9, Merlins Muse, and the 12, Roman City, are scratched.)
Order on Dirt: 6 1 3 11
Noble Jewel is in a great position to make it two in a row after breaking the previous claiming condition in her last start. However, I think Brass Ring is finding a favorable spot as well, as Gyarmati finally gets some class relief for a sneakily talented horse. Merlins Muse has been better in the past, and I don’t see that form coming back.
Race 8
$40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Three-Year-Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races, 1 Mile on the Dirt
This is a great field of hard-knocking NY-breds that have been at higher levels of racing before settling here. Many of them are talented, and they’re all pretty evenly matched. This should be a fun race to watch, even if the rain keeps up. My top four:
1- Twisted Tom (SCRATCHED)
1A- I Love Jaxson (SCRATCHED)
In a wide open race, this is a tough duo to go against here. Twisted Tom has raced at this level several times and found success every time. He’s a hard-knocking horse that’s had his high and low points in his career, but he seems to be rounding into another good performance. Meanwhile, I Love Jaxson competed very well against quality open company fields last year, and steps back into statebred company for the first time since last December. His last race wasn’t as strong as some of his previous races, but with class relief and natural conditioning, he should be rounding back into form. These two are both solid contenders in this race for Drawing Away Stable.
10- Our Last Buck
This gelding has shown versatility in his running style recently, winning on the lead and while stalking in two straight starts. He takes another step up in class here after dominating a race at the lower statebred allowance level in his first start off the layoff. He’ll likely have to stalk again, but that’s what he normally does anyway, and he’s one-for-one at the distance. This Michelle Nevin trainee is dangerous.
2- Not That Brady
This horse almost snuck into the Kentucky Derby last year, but hasn’t won a race since December 2018. He’s been racing against some very, very tough horses and has struggled on the front end. His one start at this level was a misguided attempt to run on the turf, and now he finally drops down on the right surface. He’s interesting for the sole reason that he possesses raw talent that’s not showing on the paper because of all of the bad losses in stakes competition. This will be his first attempt against other horses of his caliber, and I’m curious to see how he does in a race that he belongs in.
4- Foolish Ghost (SCRATCHED)
I don’t care what the Racing Form says, this horse won his last race with an uncontested lead on a speed favoring track. He was favored for the sole reason that the speed was holding well that day. It’s the only race that qualifies him for this one, and even then, there are better past performances here. Bruce Brown isn’t successful off of the claim, and there will be other horses up front with him this time around. I don’t think he’ll be getting away like he did last time.
Order: 1/1A 10 2 4 (Note: The 4, Foolish Ghost, is scratched.)
I think the entry of Twisted Tom and I Love Jaxson provide the most to bettors, as they’re getting to very credible runners for the price of one. Our Last Buck is also a very promising runner that could easily win this race, as he has in stylish fashion in his last two starts. Not That Brady is a front running type that is getting class relief, which makes him dangerous. However, other runners like Foolish Ghost May hurt his chances.
Race 9
Gold Fever Stakes (Ungraded), Six Furlongs on the Dirt
Tom Amoss is going to attempt to ship in and hijack this race, and I fully endorse his effort. His colt is much the best here, and something exceptional would have to happen for him to lose here. My top four:
6- Long Weekend
Back in the day, this is the type of three-year-old that would take a random shot at the Kentucky Derby, put up a 21-second opening quarter, and then take the trip back to the stables in a van. We’re living in a better time now. Tom Amoss is bringing a monster into New York here, as this horse towers above his competition in this race. He’ll get the lead and Jose Ortiz should be able to guide him over from there. He’s never raced on a sloppy track, but he’s done fine on good dirt, and that’s not nearly enough to go against him here.
2- Newstome
I’m very impressed by this horse’s last start. Untitled was a very worthy opponent he went up against that day, but he ran by him as if he was standing still. This Michael Trombetta trainee made a very professional move and pulled away in the stretch, coming home to win by five and a half lengths. That was on the synthetic, and this horse hasn’t shown any form before his layoff. However, he previously showed that he handled the dirt just as well as the synthetic, so his improvement should transfer over. I don’t think he’s good enough to win this one, but I’m interested to see what this horse has to offer going forward.
5- Wonderwhocraigis
The speed figures don’t really indicate that his last performance was that impressive, but visually, it appears to be a very good win. He did everything in his power to win that race in the final yards, and he earned his spot in this race today. Now, he may not be fast enough to catch Long Weekend, but neither is anyone else. I appreciate his effort more than his performance on paper.
4- Listentoyourheart
Well, this colt really woke up last time out. At 38-1, this runner took a clear lead early and was only passed by Captain Bombastic in the stretch. It’s nothing he’s ever been capable of previously, but Junior Alvarado gave him a trip that almost gave him an improbable victory. It’s extremely unlikely that he gets the lead in this one though.
Order: 6 2 5 4
Long Weekend is likely going to win this race by as many lengths as he wants to. Maybe the wet track prevents him from being a lock, but he’s superior to his competition in every sense of the word. Newstome ran a very nice race last time, however, and I’ll be keeping an eye out for him in the future.
Race 10
$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Bred Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf
This is the only race that I didn’t look at last night, so I’ve been able to analyze it with the knowledge that it’s being taken off the turf. It was an uneventful race before, but this is silly. My top four:
10- Adorable Maya
Her first start was on a wet track last year as a two-year-old, and it’s still her career-best performance. She was dropping into maiden claiming competition for this race, and the field is even weaker now.
5- Tiny Magoo
“Hey, you have to name your horse.”
“I haven’t thought of anything”
“Too bad, we need something now.”
“Um, uh… alright I don’t know, Tiny Magoo. There, good?”
This filly had a solid start on dirt back in February, and Michael Miceli is very effective off the layoff. She was being pointed to turf, but if she’s ready, then she’s ready.
11- She So Naughty
This filly struggled against an open company maiden race on the dirt at Gulfstream back in May. This isn’t open company, and it’s not even a dirt racing field. Rudy Rodriguez doesn’t care about the surface as long as the money’s still green and Junior Alvarado should be able to guide her into a winning position.
1- Wall Eye
This filly has a 403 Tomlinson for the wet. Standards in these races can get pretty low.
Order on Dirt: 10 5 11 1
Adorable Maya, Tiny Magoo, and She So Naughty all have experience on the dirt, which will help them. Wall Eye doesn’t have any experience off the turf, but her Tomlinson suggests she can handle it. Any of those four can stumble across the line to break their maiden here. I just have to make sure I don’t take the winner in her next start.