Belmont Analysis: Friday, June 26, 2020

This is an uneventful day of racing at Belmont, but the feature may just make the whole day worthwhile.

Race 1

$40,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

This a pretty inauspicious beginning to what is setting up to be an uneventful day. The favorite is aided by a track that seems to be favoring the early speed, and I made an attempt to compensate for that in my top four:

4- Star of the West (SCRATCHED)

This horse was excellent on the front end in his maiden win earlier this month, and should be tough to beat here. Sometimes a Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) can be inflated when a horse gets an uncontested early lead. This colt likely won’t get the same trip this time around, but it shouldn’t be far off and recent track tendencies seem to favor his running style. For some reason, Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz don’t work too well together, but their individual accomplishments are more than enough to bolster this horse’s chances even further.

2- Dangerous Edge

This horse’s last race was phenomenal, as he was the only one to successfully close, finishing third from far back. John Toscano recruits Luis Saez, a massive jockey upgrade, and this one is in with a solid chance. The only issue is that late runners have found little success at Belmont recently, and this colt has taken to running from far back in his last two starts. He’d have to be more forwardly placed here to have a better chance.

6- Dr. Devara’s Way

This gelding has been knocking on the door for a long time at the conditional claiming level, finishing second in his last two starts for $25,000. He fits well here and has enough competing speed to stay in contention, but he’s a little hard to take in the top spot given the lackluster connections.

3- Kadens Courage

This gelding hasn’t won a race since her two-year-old season, and I wouldn’t consider him for the top spot. However, he may contend for the lead early on the rail, and that may aid his chances late in this one.

Order: 4 2 6 1 (Note: The 4, Star of the West, is scratched.)

I won’t try to beat the favorite here, as I believe that the only one that can contend with him, Dangerous Edge will be compromised by the track. Meanwhile, there are two runners in here, Dr. Devara’s Way and Kadens Courage, with early speed, but not enough to take down the clear favorite.

 

Race 2

$20,000 Maiden Claiming, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a pretty weak six-horse field, and there’s not as much value as a bettor would want in a maiden claiming race. I’m projecting a quick pace up front setting up for a runner with a stalking trip:

1- Kilmarknock

His last race was a regression from two to three, but the figure was solid and the race set up poorly for him while chasing behind lone speed. He returns here and will likely stalk behind the early leaders and make a move on the turn. Robert Falcone recruits Luis Saez to ride in this gelding’s second start off of the layoff, and it’s very easy to see this one improving.

2- Carters Got Sass

I don’t really care for this runner, as he seems to run just poorly enough to lose. There was no excuse for him last time, as he got an uncontested lead and was clear in the stretch before fading badly in the final yards to finish third. This gelding’s not contending for my top spot, but as always, I think he’ll have enough staying power to finish in the top four in this six-horse field.

3- Cobble Hill

This favored deep closer would have to be significantly better to earn the top spot, and I don’t believe that’s the case. He ran very well in his last start but failed to make up much ground on the winner. He wasn’t the only one closing in that race, and he’ll need the front end to wither in order to win here. An inconsistent streak in this runner’s past performances doesn’t help his case either, especially at 6-5 on the morning line.

6- Lost in Rome

This gelding ran credibly in his first start off of the layoff, finishing fourth behind fellow runner Cobble Hill at 27-1. It was a solid run in which no one behind the leader was ever in contention for first, and while that start was encouraging, the connections don’t inspire much confidence in this one moving forward.

Order: 1 2 3 6

Beyond Kilmarknock, there’s not much calling out to me in this one, and even my top selection appears a little weak to me. The morning line favorite, Cobble Hill, will have to close in on a strong pace, and while he’s probably the best horse here, I don’t think he’s that much better. I’ll try to beat him with a few runners with competitive early speed.

 

Race 3

$66,000 Allowance for Non-Winners of One Race, 1 1/16 Miles on the Widener Turf

If this race is run on turf, then it will only have five starters. That’s somewhat disappointing, as this is a talented field, but with such an obvious favorite, the number of horses behind him may be arbitrary. My top four lacks creativity, but this race doesn’t warrant any:

1- Good Governance (GB)

I would applaud any bettor trying to beat this runner, but I’ll be making no such attempt. This lightly raced colt broke his maiden in a stirring stretch drive at Saratoga and then immediately stepped into graded stakes competition. In the G3 Saranac, he ran a better race than many of these older horses have ever run in their lives to finish second behind another talented colt, Global Access. Chad Brown should have this runner ready to fire off of the layoff, and he’ll be very tough here in his first start as a four-year-old.

5- Personal Time

This five-year-old horse has only run twice on the turf, but it should be immediately clear that this is his preferred surface. In his last start in February at Gulfstream, he ran very well as the only one closing to finish second by a receding neck at the wire. Shug McGaughey is hot at Belmont thus far in the meet and brings this one back to New York for another test on the grass. He has some tough competition, but he seems well prepared for this field.

2- Gauguin (GER)

This seven-year-old horse hasn’t won a race since 2016, when he was still racing in Germany. He’s also been the beaten favorite on several occasions stateside. That being said, he’s a pretty consistent performer for trainer Bill Mott, and there’s little reason why he can’t pick up another check here.

3- Kid Bourbon

This ridgling only has one turf start in his career, but it was a solid performance. In March at Gulfstream, he made a rally in the stretch to take second in a conditional allowance race. Oddly enough though, this runner returned to the dirt after that start, and trainer Mark Hennig is 0-for-38 when switching from the dirt to the turf. This horse fits well in here based on his one turf start, but that’s not a statistic I’d like to try to go against.

Order: 1 5 2 3

Good Governance should make a triumphant return to the track as a four-year-old here for Chad Brown, at which point it becomes a fight for second. I took Personal Time, who’s being prepared by Shug McGaughey and fits well here despite a lack of experience on the surface. Gauguin is a talented runner that doesn’t often win, while Kid Bourbon fits as well but has some glaring issues related to the connections.

 

Race 4

$25,000 Claiming, Six Furlongs on the Inner Turf

This is yet another light race despite its 12-horse field. If run as scheduled, it will only have seven turf starters. It’s setting up to be a race between two horses, as I’ve noted below:

4- Sanity

This race should set up as a two-horse contest, and I’ll take the longer shot here on the morning line. This six-year-old mare has been racing over her head at Gulfstream recently and finds a much more reasonable spot here at Belmont. Kelly Breen hasn’t been great this meet, but Irad Ortiz’s presence is an excellent sign. This horse has three wins in five starts at the distance and she’ll be very competitive here.

3- First Appeal

This mare may struggle to find the winner’s circle, but this Brad Cox trainee is very honest going six and seven furlongs. In her last race of 2020, albeit at a much higher level, she had a clear path in the stretch but didn’t seem particularly interested in making up the necessary ground. She’s dropping in class and could easily win this one, but 4-5 is a little too low for me.

11- Teletype

I’m not really sure about runners for third and fourth in this contest, as they’re all pretty uninspiring. I saw this filly run well for Bill Mott several times, but that was a while ago and she’s thrown in some very poor starts as of late. Staying on turf second off the layoff may be what she needs.

8- Puparee

This Edmund Pringle trainee hasn’t won in a very, very long time. However, she used to have some form on the turf and is now coming off a layoff from last year. There’s absolutely no guarantee she comes back strong, but this race doesn’t really have many options.

Order: 4 3 11 8

This isn’t a very special race, and beyond the top two, it gets difficult to differentiate between these horses. I took the longer shot of the pair on top and went for some shot-in-the-dark runners underneath.

 

Race 5

$10,000 Claiming, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This race is interesting for the sole reason that none of the runners seem to want to win. They’re very evenly matched, but they’re also old and don’t win as often as they used to. My top four tries to compensate for that real

3- Blinded Vision (SCRATCHED)

In a race full of horses that don’t seem keen on leading in the stretch, it may be worthwhile to take the only speed in the race. His last race can be forgiven, as he didn’t get the lead in a large field and folded while trying to come off the pace. He projects to have a much easier ride up front in this one for Rudy Rodriguez and Romero Maragh, and it wouldn’t be consistent for his competition to run him down for the lead late. He’ll either fold or he’ll win, and I’ll take the chance.

7- Tale of Mist

This horse has regressed a little in recent races and trainer/owner A C Avila enters him at his lowest claiming level ever. He fits well here and may get a better trip than some other runners, but he may also be done.

1- Blue Belt

This horse is going to get one of the more favorable trips in this race, but I’m afraid that it won’t matter. This six-year-old hasn’t won a race in two years despite never really running a bad race, and that makes him very difficult to endorse for anything beyond third in this one.

5- Javelin

This seven-year-old hasn’t won a race in a very long time, and one has to wonder at some point whether it’s really what he wants to do. Irad Ortiz rides for Rob Atras here, and those connections are enviable in any start on the dirt. It really just comes down to whether the horse wants the lead come crunch time.

Order: 3 7 1 5 (Note: The 3, Blinded Vision, is scratched.)

I’ll try to wire this older field with Blinded Vision. I think the others will try to close in and come up empty, while this one should get an uncontested lead. He may fold as well up front, but that’s a chance I have to take, as I trust him on the lead more than I do the others off the pace,

 

Race 6

$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf

I believe the top three runners here are all coming from the same maiden race on June 3. All three of them are in their second start off the layoff, and trying to differentiate between them was difficult at some points:

4- Barleewon

In his last start, this colt ran much better than fellow runners Aintitfunkynow and Voliero. In this one, he draws an inside post and attracts the services of John Velasquez, and in his second start off the layoff, this horse should manage this field well.

11- Voliero

I liked this gelding’s move entering the turn in his last race, though he flattened out thereafter. Manny Franco sticks around for Jimmy Bond and this horse may have just needed a start coming off the bench after seven months off.

10- Aintitfunkynow

This horse was very flat in his first start off the layoff as the beaten favorite, staying inside the entire time and failing to make up any ground in the stretch. Irad Ortiz stays on for Michael Maker, and this is another one that may have just needed a race.

9- Lord Cadbury

If you prefer the 5, Justintimeforwine, don’t let me stop you, as that runner may improve from two to three in a front running effort. I just thought I would take a shot with my fourth spot on a first time starter for Thomas Morley. Morley isn’t great with debuting horses, but he does recruit Joel Rosario to ride here, which usually indicates he’s entering a live animal. The 403 Tomlinson for the distance is great as well, and there have been tougher fields than this one where firsters have managed to get the job done.

Order: 4 11 10 9

Barleewon demonstrated that he was the best of the trio in their last start together, and even if the other two improve in their second starts off the layoff, he should still manage to get into the winner’s circle if he maintains his form. For fourth, I decided to include an interesting outsider instead of a horse ridden by Mike Luzzi.

 

Race 7

$40,000 Optional Claiming for NY-Bred Non-Winners of Two Races, 1 1/16 Miles on the Inner Turf

This race would be better without all of the layoffs, but that’s unfortunately the way it is for turf racing in New York. This is still a very good race with some excellent runners, and my top four is a fairly talented and evenly matched group:

9- Rinaldi

I felt like a genius when I took this runner in the New York Stallion Series in June and he broke his maiden at 10-1. From there, this gelding continued to improve, taking another restricted stakes by open lengths before running in the G3 Saranac. In that race, he held his own against some very talented three-year-olds before taking the rest of the year off. Jimmy Bond isn’t great coming off of such a long layoff, but this isn’t a typical Jimmy Bond horse. Luis Saez returns in this gelding’s first race as a four-year-old, and I believe he’ll be prepared.

8- Ghost Giant

This five-year-old gelding’s win last November was his first in over a year. Kudos to Jeremiah Englehart for finding this horse’s form in turf routes as previous trainer Jorge Abreu continually tried to run him in sprints. In two starts last year, he improved in his new barn, and while Englehart isn’t very successful off of layoffs, Junior Alvarado returns to ride for him on a mount that always has a chance.

6- Worth a Shot

This race probably won’t have much pace, which makes this front runner for Horatio DePaz interesting. After struggling to break his maiden in several starts, this horse started busting through turf conditions towards the end of last year, notching two straight wins while stepping up in class. This will naturally be another step up, but his running style under Jose Lezcano makes him dangerous here.

4- Nutzforboltz

Rob Atras is more of a dirt trainer and doesn’t do too well off of layoffs, but this gelding was too good last year to ignore. He seemed to struggle for most of the year until Irad Ortiz signed on to ride, at which point he found his stride, capping off the year with an 85 BSF win at the conditional allowance level. He steps up here off the layoff, and his running style may not benefit from the potential race setup, but his win from last year qualifies him here next nonetheless.

Order: 9 8 6 4

I’ve bet Rinaldi in the past and he exceeded my expectations. Now a four-year-old, I believe he fits very well here and should have a say in the end. Ghost Giant is a pro at this level and could be very dangerous contending for the top spot. Worth a Shot will try to use his early speed to give himself a chance, and that strategy has proven beneficial on all surfaces at Belmont recently. Nutzforboltz may have some trouble closing in this one, but his race before the layoff last year puts him in contention all the same.

 

Race 8

Hessonite Stakes (NY-Bred), Six Furlongs on the Widener Turf

This is an excellent statebred stakes race to serve as the feature on this Belmont card. There are several talented fillies and mares here, and there’s a case to be made for nearly every horse. My top four:

5- Mentality

This five-year-old mare has been a consummate professional for her entire career. In three years of racing, she’s finished in the money in 10 out of 14 starts, and she’s in with a solid chance here as well. She lost to fellow runner Saratoga Treasure in an open company stakes last year, but that race heavily favored closers and the three early contenders all finished last. Wesley Ward wasn’t patient enough to wait for Belmont to open and entered his horse in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs. She finished second there, making her the only horse in this race with a solid performance in 2020 thus far. She’s in a statebred stakes today in her second start of the year, and her workouts indicate she’s ready for it.

7- Saratoga Treasure

Eric Cancel? Really? David Donk has two in here, and this one is the clear favorite. On his other horse, he’s recruited Jose Ortiz, and with this one, Eric Cancel returns to ride. Last year, this horse was brilliant, winning three of his last four starts, including an extremely impressive victory in an open company stakes at 17-1. In his first start of 2020, he was wasting his time in the G3 Intercontinetal against Newspaperofrecord and Signficant Form, but still managed to finish fifth in the 10-horse field. Donk keeps Cancel on this runner for a third straight start, and he should be dangerous in a softer spot this time around.

1- Hannah’s Smile

Like several others in here, this mare ran very well at the end of the 2019 season, winning two in a row before taking the winter off. In her first race back earlier this month, she was very disappointing but was likely overmatched in open company. This is a more welcoming spot, and if she can find her form from last year, she’ll be in contention here.

4- Kid Is Frosty

This is a very versatile filly, but has actually found more success on turf in less starts. As a three-year-old, this horse competed consistently well in statebred stakes races, and she returns to another one in her first start as a four-year-old. The distance is a bit of a question, as she’s never had to run this short on the turf before. However, Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz work extremely well together, and her performances last year put her in the discussion.

Order: 5 7 1 4

I believe Mentality turns the tables on Saratoga Treasure in this one. Wesley Ward’s prepared her well for this start and she’s clearly in good condition going in. Saratoga Treasure ran very well last year and was simply overmatched in her first race back, but I simply think there’s a runner in here that can beat her. Hannah’s Smile and Kid Is Frosty fill out my top four as horses with outside chances.

 

Race 9

$25,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, Six and a Half Furlongs on the Dirt

Well, this is an appropriate way to end this Friday card. These are some pretty sad animals that’ll be staggering home, and it’s simply a matter of picking the least offensive of the bunch. My top four:

13- Happy Hill Lil

This horse performed well while going wide in her first start as a three-year-old. Irad Ortiz replaces Eric Cancel, indicating that trainer Gary Gullo likes her chances here.

9- Mopolka

This filly tried the dirt earlier this year before the layoff and returned this month in a better performance on the turf. However, Carlos Martin switches her back to her original surface and upgrades to jockey Luis Saez. The horse may just prefer the turf, but sometimes, improvement on one surface can indicate that they’re just better conditioned in general.

3- Hayezhee

This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but this horse ran reasonably well for Steve Asmussen as a two-year-old and may improve in her first start at three. Junior Alvarado returns to ride, which is always an encouraging sign.

11- Our Lady of Winloc

I’m going to take a shot to end the day with trainer Michael Miceli. His first start last year wasn’t a serious attempt to win, and served as more of a workout before putting him back in training. He’s coming off a relatively quick work and Miceli recruits Dylan Davis, his favorite jockey, to ride. It’ll be tough, but in a weak field, it doesn’t hurt to have a long shot to talk about.

Order: 13 9 3 11

This isn’t the type of race I enjoy betting on, but I did my best under the circumstances. Irad Ortiz and Luis Saez are both riding new mounts, which immediately give them a better chance here. Meanwhile, Hayezhee could feasibly improve for Asmussen in her first race at three. Miceli rounds out my top four with a horse that may have some hidden ability.