Author: Patrick Moquin

Saratoga Analysis: Saturday, August 24, 2024

As I write this in Oceanside on Travers Day morning, thousands of people are packing into Saratoga Racecourse to get a seat for one of the greatest racing events of the year. I don’t want you to take me for a slouch. I’m a fervent table gatherer at Saratoga myself, having made the run countless times on annual trips to the Spa. Even for me though, those at the track today strike me as radicals.

There will come a year where I eventually go to the Travers and brave the capacity crowd. There are also days when I envy racegoers who can go to Saratoga whenever they want, and there may be a moment later today where I feel that same way. But as I brave the dawn and toss and turn on my couch on Long Island, writing to all of you this morning, I must admit that I’m rather content. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Whitney Stakes Analysis

This year’s running of the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga is one of the most intriguing in recent history, revolving around one idea: No one seems to be afraid of National Treasure. 

In past years, daunting favorites have consistently deterred most challengers, leading to very small fields. This year, 11 runners have entered to take a shot at the leader of the weak older males division. As a handicapper, it’s hard to ask for much more.

As usual, I’ll be providing full analysis of the race in post position order. In addition, I’ve gone back and added a sentence for each horse to take the rain and sloppy track into account. The weather is sure to shake up this field, and I wanted to provide readers with up-to-date information. Let’s get to it. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Haskell Stakes Analysis

My relationship with Monmouth Park has soured somewhat in the past year or so, mostly because of my inept handicapping when I go there. Nevertheless, the G1 Haskell remains one of the biggest races of the year, necessitating a return to Paddy’s Picks.

This year’s field in Jersey is a ton of fun, as it features the typical lot of local runners facing off against the best three-year-olds in the country. This might seem like a silly arrangement, and it is, but I’d much rather watch an eight-horse race with three stiffs than a five-horse race with a wire-to-wire winner.  read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis, Picks For The 2024 Belmont Stakes

Greetings from Saratoga Springs! For those of you who unaware, due to renovations at Belmont Racetrack, this year’s Belmont Stakes is being held at Saratoga Racecourse for the first time in the race’s history. I’m lucky enough to be in attendance and writing to you from the track this morning.

While this year’s Belmont Stakes field isn’t anything special, the historic nature of this venue change is certain to elevate it, while also transforming it into a different event. From a sporting standpoint, cutting the race back to 1 ¼ miles makes it more closely resemble the Travers in August. There has been talk of shortening the marathon race for a long time, and while I can understand the temporary change to accompany Saratoga, I sincerely hope it doesn’t stay this way forever. read more

Paddy’s Picks for the 2024 Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes has been disappointing for me in recent years. This may sound ungrateful, and it is, but one must admit that it’s been a rough couple of years for the poor Triple Crown race.

While a winning ticket in the Kentucky Derby still eludes me, the race always promises elite competition and excitement. The Belmont Stakes is usually a wonderfully unique contest and fascinating handicapping exercise in my home state. More often than not, the Preakness doesn’t offer any of this. read more

The Casual Bet: Guest Handicappers Analyze The 2024 Kentucky Derby

Featured in Illustration: Affirmed and jockey Steve Cauthen Winning the 1978 Kentucky Derby (Illustration Courtesy of Esmé Bleecker-Adams)

To pull back the curtain on the Paddy’s Picks process, I usually write the introductions to these articles at the end. The problem is that I’m currently in a car in the middle of Pennsylvania on the way to my sister’s graduation. So you’ll all have to forgive me if I’m a little succinct in setting the stage for this year’s Kentucky Derby. read more

Paddy’s Picks 2024 Kentucky Derby Analysis

A Kentucky Derby without Bob Baffert is like an oil tanker without a fireworks display. Plenty of things can still go wrong, but you’re feeling a lot safer onboard, aren’t you?

Instead of transferring his Derby hopefuls to his colleague, Tim Yakteen, this year, Baffert tried to get around his Churchill Downs ban through the Kentucky Court of Appeals. The court’s decision to enforce the racetrack’s restrictions is a clear win for those who consider Baffert’s doping history to be a stain on the sport. From a purely competitive point of view, however, it is unfortunate that superstar colt Muth, along with a few others in Baffert’s stable, are therefore ineligible to run. read more

Make Your Case: Guest Hancidappers Defend Every Horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby

In the early 1600s, Catherine de Vivonne, marquise de Rambouillet, grew tired of the social scene in France and began hosting small events in her salon. In time, these events and others like it became highly fashionable, allowing intellectuals across various disciplines to exchange concepts and ideas on the basis of reason. Thus began the Age of Enlightenment. 

Nearly 200 years later, King Louis XVI was beheaded by guillotine in the Place de la Concorde. 22 years after that, the tyrant Napoleon Bonaparte was exiled for the second time and sent to die off the coast of Africa. read more

Race of the Day: 2024 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

To be completely candid with all of you, I’m not a huge fan of the Pegasus World Cup. I enjoyed it in the very early days, when it boasted a $12 million purse and innovative invitation system. The very first running in 2017 was a Breeders’ Cup Classic rematch between Arrogate and California Chrome, and I genuinely thought I was witnessing the beginning of a storied horse racing tradition.

But it’s 2024 now, and it’s still very cold in January. And instead of Arrogate and California Chrome, I have to watch the 12 best dirt horses in the country that didn’t retire at the end of 2023. Only one of them has a G1 stakes win. As for the international flavor of this World Cup race, O’Connor was bred in Chile and came to the United States in late 2022. That’s it. read more

Paddy’s Picks Analysis: 2023 Breeders’ Cup Saturday

It’s strange and frustrating that the Breeders’ Cup Classic will not end this year’s 14-race event due to NBC programming changes. A few scratches in the card also cheapen races that would have been stacked otherwise. But the deeper this card goes, the more exciting it gets.

While the Classic this year is a blast in its own right despite Arcangelo’s withdrawal, I believe the Turf will steal the show. It is, without exaggeration, one of the most impressive fields I’ve ever seen in the United States in my lifetime and is almost mandatory for every fan of the sport to watch.  read more