Three weeks ago, a near-death experience on Preakness Day, or Fordham’s Graduation Day, forced me to slightly change the Paddy’s Picks format for guest analysis. Instead of publishing the article before the race, which would have been impossible for me to do as I sat in my black robes and slowly perished, I chose to wait until after the race and provide commentary for my guests’ picks in hindsight. After getting a significant amount of positive feedback after it went up, I decided to maintain the format for the Belmont Stakes.
With nearly twice as many guests and more rest for me this time around, hopefully a more prepared version of “A Look Back” for the Belmont proves to be even more insightful than the Preakness piece I wrote in a fugue state back in May. Or maybe I just do my best work after baking at 150 degrees for six hours. I suppose we’ll find out together either way. This won’t necessarily be the format for every big race going forward, but why not try it out?
Though I provide the full order of finish for the Belmont Stakes below, the race essentially came down to a handful of runners in the stretch. Mo Donegal proved best, powering away to win by three lengths. The filly Nest, Mo Donegal’s stablemate, finished second while long shot Skippylongstocking outran his odds to finish third. Guests who picked Mo Donegal are unquestionable winners, those who picked Nest and Skippy can hold their heads high while those who picked any other horse have reason to be disappointed. Let’s get jiggy with it.
Belmont, Race 11
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Full Order of Finish:
- Mo Donegal (6)
- Nest (3)
- Skippylongstocking (2)
- We the People (1)
- Creative Minister (5)
- Rich Strike (4)
- Barber Road (8)
- Golden Glider (7)
Joan Moquin
After a short break from analysis for the Preakness, a day she spent at my graduation in 95-degree heat, my mother returned to her handicapping efforts for the Belmont Stakes. With the year winding down at JFK Middle School, her analysis appears to be tinged by excitement for the summer to come.
Mom’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“My heart is all in for Nest; I’m a love fool for any filly that can run with the boys. This beauty may join the ranks of Ruffian, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, Winning Colors and, my personal fave, Zenyatta. More likely though, Mo Donegal will be the horse festooned with white carnations in the winner’s circle at Belmont today.”
In Hindsight: Mind and heart combined well for Mom on Saturday, as Mo Donegal ran his typical race to win comfortably while Nest took a nice step up to contend with the boys and take second. Though she didn’t bet on the event, she did correctly pick the horse that would be festooned, and there’s certainly pride in that.
Jean Patterson
After an enthusiastic, trend-setting Paddy’s Picks debut in the Preakness guest article, my Aunt Jeannie returned to make a pick for the Belmont as well. If originality was the theme of her first contribution, conviction is the clear focus here.
Aunt Jeanie’s Pick: 2- Skippylongstocking
“For today’s race, I’m going with my boy Skippy. Why change horses in the middle of the stream? He did finish fifth in the Preakness, so maybe on this gorgeous and perfect NY day for a race, my horse with the whimsical (kinda silly) name will have his day! Go SPL! 👏🏻❤️🐎”
In Hindsight: After supporting Skippylongstocking wholeheartedly in the Preakness and watching him come up short, my aunt didn’t seem deterred in the slightest and took him again in New York. Her loyalty was rewarded, at least in part. As the second longest shot in the race, Skippy ran extremely well to finish third, seven lengths ahead of sixth place finisher Rich Strike. It may not be a victory, but my aunt can come away from this race saying that she beat a Kentucky Derby winner with an 11-1 shot.
Emma Moquin
After finishing second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Epicenter, my sister may have come into the Belmont Stakes understandably fatigued. In response to a race without Epicenter, she had the natural bettor’s instinct to go hunting for a price.
Emma’s Pick: 5- Creative Minister
“I like the 5, Creative Minister, here for the Belmont Stakes this year. I love his running style in past races and love it even more now that he will be facing the longest race of the year. He ran excellent in the Preakness with an impressive 100 speed figure, finishing in 3rd, and I truly think that without any clear favorites or ‘unbeatable’ competition in the race, this horse has a great chance. I’m wary of his jockey and wish he had someone slightly better, but I just kept coming back to this horse. I hope everyone had some good luck on Belmont Stakes Day.”
In Hindsight: What a fool. Alright, in all seriousness, Emma wasn’t the only one who liked Creative Minister, as I picked him to finish second. Based on his performance in the Preakness last time out, it does feel like he’s a horse with an interesting future. Unfortunately, the busy racing schedule last month and longer Belmont distance took its toll and he finished fifth. These things happen.
George McKnight
When I lived with George in the Bronx, his handicapping habits could only be described as lackadaisical. Well, they could probably be described with other adjectives, but that’s the one I’m using. While I looked over the race with Niko or Kristina, George would typically take a few minutes with the Daily Racing Form, find a reasonably priced runner that wasn’t the favorite, and take him on top. But that was Bronx George. Now, Mr. McKnight finds himself in London for the summer as he pursues… financial consulting? Investing? Bean counting? That thing Scrooge McDuck does in that cartoon, where he just throws coins around his vault? Whatever it is he does, his English exodus seems to have given him a more sophisticated and focused edge, as his analysis for this race was unprecedented in its insight.
George’s Pick: 3- Nest and 6- Mo Donegal
“Hello dear Pat fans. As a frequent guest of Paddy’s Picks, I’m very excited to make my picks for the Belmont Stakes this year. After Rich Strike won at Churchill Downs with 80-1 odds, I’ll admit that my confidence in my ability to successfully pick a winner at the Stakes has fallen tremendously. But Patrick asked me for my input this year anyway, so here goes.
Unfortunately, Rich Strike was held out of the Preakness, so there’s no chance for a Triple Crown winner this year. The Preakness winner, Early Voting, will also be held out of this race. This is all very disappointing, but my enthusiasm for this race hasn’t waned. Rich Strike had the most impressive late surge I think I’ve ever seen, and he’s got 7-2 odds as of Friday. These odds are a bit generous in my book, and I think Rich Strike’s best days are already behind him.
I’m very interested in both We the People and Mo Donegal. We the People is making his debut in the Triple Crown season, but he has performed decently well in his first four races. He’s won 3/4, with a big win at Belmont last month. He did finish in seventh in Arkansas in April, which isn’t promising, but he’s got experience at the Belmont track and I think he’s got a lot more in the tank than a lot of the other horses here. I like Mo Donegal’s chances as well. He’s got a better starting spot than at the Derby, which dispels any worries of how he’ll break out of the first half-mile scrum. The stronger post position will enable Mo Donegal to stay on the outside and make a late surge instead of having to bust through the middle of the pack. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt has a lot of potential, as he’s finished well in all five of his races, even the ones he lost.
Nest is also a possible pick here, as the filly is known for her blazing speed figures as well as her ancestry. She is a daughter of Curlin, who won the 2007 Preakness and the 2007 Breeder’s. 8-1 odds could lead to a healthy payout, and it’d be fun to see her become the fourth filly ever to win the Stakes. Makes me think of Zenyatta. What a horse. If you’ve somehow never seen her, go look at some YouTube highlights, you won’t regret it.
To wrap it up, I’d include Nest in an exacta box with Mo Donegal. If that’s too ambitious for you, I would advise including We the People in a trifecta. These bets usually work out better for me than picking a straight winner, but if you pressured me, I’d say Mo Donegal will win this one. George out.”
In Hindsight: What a chap! I have absolutely nothing to critique. George managed to narrow down the race to its four main contenders and correctly tossed Rich Strike and We the People for the same reasons I tossed them. That left him with a tidy exacta that went on to pay $13.80 for a dollar. He’s George McKnight, he runs the races.
Niko Konstantellis
While George has gone from the Bronx to London, Niko went from the Bronx to New Jersey after graduation. Though he lost 25 IQ points when he crossed the border, his handicapping abilities seem to have remained sharp.
Niko’s Pick: 3- Nest
“My typical first step when looking at races is to see which horses have run at the distance and performed. In this year’s Belmont Stakes, none of these horses have run 1 1/2 miles in their careers. Because of this, my thinking has led me to believe this will be a closer’s race. Nest is the first horse that intrigues me. Although not a deep closer, she has proven to be able to kick into an extra gear down the stretch. Mo Donegal is next, my original pick to win the Derby but who I eventually strayed away from due to his post position, a factor which I believe ultimately cost him in that one. This time around, this will actually work in his favor in the small field. The third horse I will be considering in Barber Road. In his first few races, Barber Road shot off to the lead and was typically found in the front of the pack for the majority of the race. Recently, this strategy has been adjusted to a closer type approach. Although not the fastest nor the best, I like to find horses that can cause some disruption around the final turn and I think Barber Road could do just that.”
In Hindsight: Barber Road was a poor underdog and finished seventh, but there’s very little to critique in Niko’s analysis beyond that. I underestimated Nest and he overestimated her just a tad, but he undoubtedly evaluated her better than I did and was likely rewarded for his confidence if he happened to bet an exacta box with Mo Donegal, who we agreed was an inescapably talented favorite. Whether he bet that exacta box is uncertain, however, because the guy who bets on sports all the time and paid my Con Edison bill for the past year hasn’t been able to set up a horse racing account since 2020.
Kristina Stevanovic
Keeks is a busy woman and didn’t make her pick until the morning of the race. There was also some confusion as to how sixteenths converted into other fractions, which caused a slight problem when comparing race distances. But despite the temporal and mathematical adversity, she still managed to make her return as one of the most prodigious guests in the history of Paddy’s Picks.
Kristina’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“Mo Donegal cuz Todd is God, but skipping Nest because I don’t love the beyers. I love that Creative Minister and Skippylongstocking ran well in the Preakness against each other with excellent Beyers, which makes me much more confident in them than other horses in this race. I think this is a great trifecta to consider if you’re betting. Also, screw Rich Strike. And Chad Brown. And these gas prices.”
In Hindsight: Kristina Jellybeana strikes again. As it turns out, Kristina and I agreed completely in this race, and though that led both of us to miss out on the filly and eventual runner-up Nest, our analysis still led us to a win for Mo Donegal and solid showing from upset pick Skippylongstocking. If only she could get YouTube TV to work.
Maddie Sandholm
I’m proud to announce that Maddie is finally in denial. It’s a big step. After providing nonsensical analysis on Paddy’s Picks for the better part of two years, she is slowly beginning to pick horses on the basis of legitimate horse racing knowledge and previous experience. Her defense in response to this shocking revelation: “O.K. yeah sure, so I knew one thing about a horse one time. Whatever.”
Linnie’s Pick: 1- We the People
“I remember this horse killing it at Belmont on May 14th so I’m hoping he’ll bring it back and win again on New York soil (I don’t know if this is a turf or dirt race so I’m not going to commit to either). Also, I think it would be cool to be able to say that I saw the Belmont Stakes winner run and win his first race at Belmont. And, he has a 100% win rate at Belmont, so how hard could it really be to just keep it?”
In Hindsight: When We the People dominated the G2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, Maddie was in the stands (in the rain) to witness his performance in person. The fact that the race made an impression is encouraging, but I’m afraid that We the People’s fourth place finish in the Belmont will scare her back to her old ways. Either way, I’ll keep the racing community posted with future developments on this Very Important story.
Maryam Beshara
It’s 12:34 p.m. on Sunday as I write this. Maryam put a lot of pressure on her decision due to the fact that I have been teaching her more about the sport. She couldn’t use the excuse that she has no knowledge of horse racing to make a dumb Paddy’s Pick. She was simply restless.
Maryam’s Pick: 4- Rich Strike
“It’s 1:38 a.m. on Saturday as I write this. I’ve put a lot of pressure on this decision due to the fact that the owner of this website has been teaching me more about the sport and I can’t use the excuse that I have no knowledge of horse racing to make a dumb Paddy’s Pick. I’m simply restless. Between 3 horses, I have to say that it may be an amateur move to go with Rich Strike but I feel like it’s the move I have to make. Mo Donegal seems favorable and so does We the People, but something about Rich Strike’s quirkiness makes me believe he can win the Belmont Stakes. I was told to pick Mo Donegal for the Irish but I have to go with my gut here. Rich Strike is an ass for stealing the race from Epicenter in the Kentucky Derby, but he better bring it home for Mama in the Stakes.”
In Hindsight: Sometimes knowledge can cloud judgment. If Maryam had made a dumb pick and taken Mo Donegal “for the Irish,” she would’ve walked away from this race with her first win ever. But she knew that Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby, and she knew that Mo Donegal didn’t. Mama went with what she knew, and Mama was denied.
Allie Stofer
Like George, Allie’s spending the summer abroad in London. Unlike George, the English way of life seems to have made no impact on her horse racing analysis.
Allie’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“It sounds like a mix between a Golden Girl and a sugar glider, and I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to fight either of those.”
In Hindsight: The most frustrating kind of analysis is the kind that raises more questions than answers. Why are Allie’s two biggest fears characters from an 80s sitcom and a winged possum? Why would an amalgamation of those two fears lead her to select a horse to win a horse race? Why would she say, “I don’t know about you,” as if to relate to the audience with things no one has ever thought about ever? In any case, Golden Glider finished eighth.
Clara Gerlach
Between Messier in the Derby and Skippylongstocking in the Preakness, the Triple Crown trail hasn’t treated Clara too kindly. But damn it all if she hasn’t been enthusiastic through everything. The summer will come and her picks will be worth thousands, but in the meantime, maybe we should just get through the Belmont.
Clara’s Pick: 4- Rich Strike
“I’m going to say Rich Strike because I feel like those are both positive things, and a strike is pretty fast? Hopefully people will strike rich with Rich Strike!”
In Hindsight: Even though “rich” and “strike” are both words with multiple definitions, I think it’s profound that Clara would choose the most positive one for each. Rich Strike failed to repeat his Derby victory on Saturday and finished sixth, leaving his backers decidedly poorer. But I’d challenge anyone to see if the loss kept Clara down for long.
Emily Ellis
You don’t have to believe me when I say that I’m writing this before I hear Emily’s pick, but she’s going to pick Nest. There’s no doubt about it. She’s the only filly in the race, and there’s some bird stuff going on, and it’s all going to be too much for her.
Emily’s Pick: 3- Nest
“I like Nest because it reminds me of the fact that baby birds are pushed out of the nest to see if they survive. But this horse is just called Nest which means it symbolizes home and growth and that makes my heart happy.”
In Hindsight: Alright, so she went a little darker than I thought she would at first, but my point stands. Emily’s love of women and nature came in handy for the Belmont, as the filly Nest finished second behind Mo Donegal. She’s undoubtedly a survivor after the biggest test of her career, and Emily’s wholesome support of her deserved a solid performance.
Matt Ludington
After graduating from Fordham, Matt headed home to Syracuse, where I can only assume he’s taken refuge from the snow in his cabin in the mountains. His pick came via messenger pigeon and was his first contact with the outside world in weeks.
Matt’s Pick: 8- Barber Road
“I think Barber Road will win the Belmont because he will have the freshest cut of them all 😎”
In Hindsight: Barber Road finished seventh, and despite his name, his cut didn’t appear particularly fresh before the race. Because of this, I don’t think we can blame Matt for his terrible pick, as the horse clearly tricked him with false advertising.
Tony Kraus
Tony and I share a background as Long Island natives, which means that we exclusively discuss Billy Joel and the plights of modern day fishermen. Our break to talk about the Belmont Stakes was brief.
Tony’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“If he’s aerial, can he bypass the track and go straight to the finish? Food for thought.”
In Hindsight: Foolishly, Golden Glider did not use his flying ability at any point in the Belmont Stakes and finished last.
Ryan Heffron
For the year that I lived in the Bronx, Heff lived in the apartment above me and was my chess partner and fellow Tolkien supporter. He embraced both roles fully. The fact that I’m making him sound as nerdy as possible here is also partially intentional.
Ryan’s Pick: 2- Skippylongstocking
“Definitely going with Skippy, he sounds like he hails from somewhere in the Shire. If there’s one thing about hobbits, they might be small and not so quick – but they are sneaky. He’s gonna sneak right up to the finish line… you might not even see him!”
In Hindsight: Just as Heff predicted, Skippylongstocking was very sneaky, finishing third at long odds in an improved performance. It was about as Hobbit-like as a horse can get, as he never led the race outright but was also in the mix at every stage.
Audrey O’Brien
Audrey’s on a tour of Europe right now, and is probably still in Croatia if I had to guess. My material on Croatia is admittedly a little thin, so I don’t think I have any jokes for her this time. But do they ski there? I know soccer’s big, but how big? And what’s with that horn shape blocking Bosnia-Herzegovina from the water?
Audrey’s Pick: 2- Skippylongstocking
“Skippy looks like a promising choice because of his experience with previous races and that’s just a silly name he’s got.”
In Hindsight: As Audrey said, Skippy did have experience on the Triple Crown trail, and that is a silly name he’s got. His third-place finish doesn’t sound so surprising when you say it like that, does it?
Eddie Harrison
Steady Eddie is back for another killing at the races. Sounds natural, doesn’t it? He should get a fun hat and start hanging around OTBs and fight people over tickets that fall on the floor.
Eddie’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“Lucky number 7, Golden Glider with jockey Dylan Davis, has a double alliteration as smooth as their road to victory will be this week.”
In Hindsight: Golden Glider finished dead last. Steady Eddie’s a fool.
Gabby Etzel
Gabby Etzel is a big Skippylongstocking fan.
Gabby’s Pick: 2- Skippylongstocking
“SKIIPPPPPPYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY. You’re telling me that Skippylongstocking’s rider wears my favorite color on their jacket? Yeeeellloooooooow. Skiiiippppyyyyyyyyyyy.”
In Hindsight: Like I said. Skippylongstocking actually did rather well, finishing third at long odds. Her biggest fan’s unwavering support undoubtedly propelled him into contention.
Mia Agostinelli
Mia had the opportunity to provide a pick for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but life got in the way, as it does for us all. Though she almost missed the Belmont as well while she was vacationing, she managed to report back to me on the morning of the race.
Mia’s Pick: 1- We the People
“Given everything going on right now, I have bet on my faith and hope somewhere. As a result, there is no better place than with We The People.”
In Hindsight: Though her reasoning was as morbid as it was vague and foreboding, many insiders also considered We the People to be a viable option going into the race. Unfortunately, the colt failed to maintain the lead in the stretch and faded to fourth. I would much sooner bet money than “faith and hope” on a horse race, but I’m certain that Mia has some of each to spare.
Gil Russo
Typically a split-second decision maker for Paddy’s Picks, Gil actually took most of the week leading up to the Belmont Stakes to come to a decision. Some may say that she was probably just busy with a full-time job and an even fuller life beyond that, but I don’t think the people saying that are giving her enough credit. It’s my theory that she really agonized over her pick for all that time, and only got back to me after she knew that she had the winner. Let’s see what she has to say.
Gil’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“My gut immediately told me Mo Denegal. It sounds like the name of a small-town nightly news anchor or your neighbor’s dad, but like, there’s good vibes there. I also vaguely remembered that name as a recent popular(ish?) guest pick, and a look back through Paddy’s Picks to the Derby guest analysis (aka the most research I’ve ever done on a pick) confirmed this. Maybe I’m actually onto something for once.”
In Hindsight: Alright, so my theory was wrong, or was it? Theoretically, the first part of Gil’s analysis could have taken her 20 to 25 seconds to think of and type up. But she makes clear in the second part that she did a minimal amount of research, which must have taken at least three minutes. It doesn’t take much more to get to three days, and even if she didn’t spend every second of those 72 hours looking at horses, she happened to find the winner. It’s Gil’s second win on Paddy’s Picks and her first since Tiz the Law in the 2020 Travers Stakes. The editor around here offers her a very warm congratulations and thanks.
Alyssa Macaluso
Alyssa was stressed about applying to graduate schools when she made her pick for the Belmont. A reader could never tell based on the pep in her analysis, but my goal as editor is to provide context to my guests’ selections. A former intern at the State Department and current, perpetual genius, Alyssa is the type to overachieve and worry nonetheless. The duty of a friend to someone like her is obviously to distract her with ultimately meaningless horse races, and you know, I do what I can.
Alyssa’s Pick: 5- Creative Minister
“I would go with We the People, but I know that first position isn’t great for the race, so I don’t have high hopes for them. I also am not familiar with the name, as fun as it is, so I don’t feel as confident going with We the People.
Creative Minister, on the other hand, still has my heart and my confidence. I feel like they’re in a good place out the gate. Creative Minister for the win!”
In Hindsight: Alyssa’s loyalty to Creative Minister was not rewarded in this case, as her Preakness pick regressed in the Belmont and finished fifth. Her apparent second choice, We the People, did not do much better, finishing fourth after leading for most of the race. Pessimistically, her pair was defeated by three runners, but optimistically, they defeated three runners themselves. I hope there’s something worth salvaging there for Alyssa, because I would definitely appreciate hearing more of her insights later this summer at Monmouth and Saratoga.
Asa Brandyberry
One of only two Paddy’s Picks winners on Preakness Day, Asa entered this race determined to continue wreaking havoc on the entire readership. Being the antagonist he is, he also invited me to a Taco Tuesday Movie Night this week. What a vile, nefarious, dastardly character.
Asa’s Pick: 5- Creative Minister
“I will have to say Creative Minister. If there is a God, he shall be on their side. Let my villain arc continue.”
In Hindsight: Creative Minister finished fifth, thus emphatically proving the nonexistence of God. This was Asa’s plan all along, to watch society’s most basic institutions crumble under the unbearable stress imposed by his horse racing logic. His villain arc continues, even in defeat.
Corbin Gregg
For those of you reading this article solely looking for updates on Corbin, I’m sorry I didn’t include him at the top of the list. The story of our graduation ceremony that I told in the Preakness guest article was left without an ending, as I did not know at the time whether he ultimately succumbed to the sweltering heat or carried along as a man transformed by the experience. I’m happy to report that I’ve seen him several times since, but the pain remains. One need only look into his eyes to see it.
Corbin’s Pick: 3- Nest
“Nest has got this in the bag. After coming in second in the Kentucky Oaks, she is going to put Rich Strike, an incredibly sore winner, to shame.”
In Hindsight: Corbin’s analysis wasn’t wrong in any sense, as the filly Nest did indeed put Rich Strike in his place after his impossible Derby victory. As it turns out, what doesn’t kill Corbin simply makes him wiser and sharper to the world of racing. Consider this a statement race for him.
Kreena Vora
At this point, Kreena is legitimately a reliable handicapper, and her picks were made with statistical reasoning and logic. Consider this a serious interlude in a cavalcade of silliness.
Kreena’s Pick: 3- Nest
“There are a lot of horses I recognize here. While We the People has decent stats and has won at Belmont before, his name is much much too patriotic. And Rich Strike may have won the Kentucky Derby, but I strongly believe that was a fluke (and also he tried to bite another horse after that) so not him. So, while her name is boring, looking at the numbers I would go with Nest. She seems reliable and like a safe bet. If I was gonna pick a long shot based on vibes it would be Creative Minister.”
In Hindsight: We the People did enter the race with solid stats and a win at Belmont, but I would argue that the race distance was more to blame for his loss than his overly patriotic name. Nevertheless, Kreena was correct to toss him. Rich Strike’s performance in the Derby certainly seems to be a fluke after his sixth-place finish in the Belmont, as Kreena predicted. I didn’t necessarily agree with Kreena that Nest was a safe bet, but regardless of whether or not she knew she was taking on risk, Nest did run very well to finish second. The only critique I could make of Kreena’s analysis was the omission of Mo Donegal, the favorite and eventual winner of the race. But it was once again a very professional effort from one of the brightest rising stars on Paddy’s Picks.
Grace Getman
Riding high after her victory in the Preakness Stakes, Grace nevertheless seemed to approach the Belmont in a similarly calculating manner. Reaching the top and staying there are two different things, and Grace knows that difference more than anyone, even when it comes to nonsensical racing analysis.
Grace’s Pick: 3- Nest
“It’s the name of the Google owned tech company, so the horse is definitely evil but…evil enough to win?”
In Hindsight: When Grace picked Nest to win the Belmont Stakes, she wasn’t aware that Nest was a filly. Fortunately, her skepticism in big tech is as fervent as her support for women’s rights. Nest proved many of the doubters (like me) wrong, finishing second behind her stablemate, Mo Donegal. It may not be the repeat victory Grace was looking for, but it’s the second best thing.
Esme Bleecker-Adams
Back when we both worked for The Fordham Observer, Esme used to be one of my main supporters whenever I tried to push a ridiculously alliterative headline. Knowing her as someone who genuinely liked, “Men’s B-Ball Beat by Bonnies in Brutal Blowout,” I really should have been able to see where she would land here.
Esme’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“We the People kind of continues with the democracy theme, but I am a sucker for alliteration so I think I have to pick Golden Glider (who also has an alliterative jockey). Although if Skippylongstocking, my Preakness pick, wins this one, I will be taking full credit.”
In Hindsight: While Esme’s old Preakness pick made her proud in a progressed performance, Golden Glider gained little ground in a guileless gaffe, ensuring eighth in the end. Esme’s enthused, even excited, entries are endlessly endearing to this editor, however.
Roxanne Cubero
Roxanne said that she picked Simplification to win the Preakness in the hopes that it was a good omen for the summer to come. Simplification finished sixth that day, and I don’t really know how Roxanne has been doing since in all honesty. We’ve mostly texted about baseball and horse racing, which is probably a good sign, right? Right?
Roxanne’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“This one’s easy: #7, Golden Glider. I’ve always said (particularly in my graphic design classes) that my ideal world would be swathed in neon pink. Plus the name, while not quite on the mark, instantly reminded me of one of my favorite songs, “Roxy Roller” by Nick Gilder. I don’t think I even read the other names because I was instantly drawn to Golden Glider, so he’s my pick.”
In Hindsight: The fact that Golden Glider finished dead last might lead some to suggest that Roxanne should read all the names next time. But not this editor. The sport of horse racing is instinctual, and shouldn’t be an exercise of overthinking. It’s only a matter of time before Roxanne’s strategy pays dividends.
Jacob Blank
Jacob Blank is in Maryland unless I’m in Maryland. Then he’s suddenly not in Maryland. After telling me all year that he couldn’t hang out on weekends because he was ballroom dancing in Maryland, I finally went down there for a baptism a few weeks ago and asked if he was around. He was in Massachusetts.
Jacob’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“I have total faith and confidence in Golden Glider—any horse whose name is an alliteration has what it takes to win. And I mean, come on. Gold is literally in the name.”
In Hindsight: We’ve been over Golden Glider’s alliteration and we’ve mentioned his last place finish. I’m getting a little tired of talking about this horse. If anything, he earned the opposite of gold, Jacob. Come on. Be in Maryland when you’re supposed to be.
Christian Madlansacay
In the Preakness, after nearly every guest picked Skippylongstocking, I snapped at Christian for his trend-following pick and told him to read the room. I should offer my sincere apologies to a great man and even better friend. I acted out of character, and he should be able to say whatever he wants on Paddy’s Picks without having to endure my belittling commentary. This is a safe space. Let’s look at his Belmont pick.
Christian’s Pick: 7- Golden Glider
“Golden Glider because the name sounds really cool and Golden is one of my favorite Harry Styles songs.”
In Hindsight: Alright man, what the hell? Did you not hear me say that I was done talking about this horse? He finished last! Dead last! There, I said it again. Are you happy? Are you messing with me? Is this all some big joke to you?
Shaily Jani
Alright, let’s cool down a little here. Shaily just completed her duties in the bridal party of what was, without exaggeration, the longest, most drawn out wedding I’ve ever observed. Though I’ve only known her for seven months or so, it feels like she’s been attending events and helping to plan it for at least three years. The poor girl barely had time to vibe with the ponies.
Shaily’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“The last time I picked off of names alone, Skippylongstocking really let me down. This time we’re going to go with names AND vibes. I’m going to trust my gut here and go with my main man Mo. I hope he brings a lot of folks Mo money.”
In Hindsight: Names and vibes seemed to play in perfect concert for Shaily this time, as her main man Mo powered home in the stretch to win and give plenty of folks Mo money. The only question remaining is whether names or vibes were what ultimately made the difference. Expect Shaily to figure it out by next time.
Gabriella Bermudez
As a Paddy’s Picks guest for the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago, Gabby selected Creative Minister with a reasonable amount of confidence and enthusiasm, and the precocious colt rewarded her with a third-place finish. Did she pick him again to win the Belmont? Or did she find an alternative, unwilling to settle for a horse that couldn’t find the winner’s circle the first time? All intriguing questions, but I have another. Does Gabby remember who she picked to win the Preakness?
Gabby’s Pick: 2- Skippylongstocking
“Okay, I’m going to go down a path I don’t usually go… with number 2, Skippylongstocking. Also because it is currently 2:22 pm. I think that’s a sign.
But if number 2 does bad. Then number 3, Nest. I’m not sure I have the best feeling about the horse. But I just think that Jose Ortiz is going to help her do well, I have no way of backing that statement up. I just have a feeling.”
In Hindsight: Here’s to a short-term memory. It turns out that Gabby’s decision to knowingly abandon Creative Minister was inspired. Her top selection, Skippylongstocking, upset a large portion of the field to finish third while her backup selection, Nest, nearly became the first filly since 2007 to take the Belmont with her runner-up performance. If it was 4:44 p.m. when she looked at the horses, her fate could have been far worse. If she had looked at 7:77 p.m., it would’ve been 8:17.
Aurelien Clavaud
Is he summering in France, exploring old WWII battle sites and enjoying cafes on the outskirts of Paris? Or is he wrangling bulls and drilling for oil in the heart of Texas? If nothing else, Aurelien is a sophisticated man of mystery, and mystery inevitably provokes interest. Let’s hear how a man of such variety picks a horse race.
Aurelien’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“Ok my boi MO DONEGAL is winning it all and you can’t convince me otherwise, although Skippylongstocking would be a great ‘fuck it take my money’ bet.”
In Hindsight: Mo Donegal, Aurelien’s boi, did indeed win it all, and Skippylongstocking was a great FITMM bet, finishing third at long odds. The most impressive victories are casual ones, and it’s undeniable that one of my former protégés won stylishly here.
Maggie McNamara
Maggie’s back! My original assistant at The Observer did what few could and actually broke free from the clutches of the organization, but conversations about Cars 2 keep us in occasional contact.
Maggie’s Pick: 3- Nest
“Nest because she’s the odd woman out. It’s simple and straight to the point. All the other horses are trying too hard. Sometimes, one syllable is all it takes! Less is more.”
In Hindsight: In the tradition of Cher and Prince, Nest did indeed prove that less is more, finishing strong as the runner-up against a field of talented colts. Hopefully Maggie can give Paddy’s Picks readers more of her syllable rhetoric as the summer progresses. We all have so much to learn.
Chris Murray
Of all the guests that contributed to Paddy’s Picks for the Belmont Stakes, Chris was the only one that was actually in attendance at the track for the race. In a proud moment for me, he was frustrated with his friends for skipping the early races on the card, a strong sign of his transition into a legitimate fan of the sport.
Chris’ Pick: 3- Nest
“My gut is telling me Nest takes it. She’s a winner and I think she has a good shot as long as she can hold off late pushes from the likes of Mo Donegal and Rich Strike.”
In Hindsight: With Nest and Mo Donegal at the forefront of his mind and betting machines all around him, one might think that Chris made a killing on this race. Unaccustomed to the large crowds, however, he was unable to make a bet on the race and could only watch on as the Pletcher duo finished 1-2. Validation in this article is unfortunately his only reward for some rather shrewd handicapping.
Matt Clarkin
After eight years as friends, Matt finally made his first contribution to Paddy’s Picks for this year’s Belmont Stakes. As college students capable of throwing a baseball, Matt and I made six total appearances on the mound for Holy Cross baseball in our sophomore year, compiling a 3.86 combined ERA in seven innings of work. It if wasn’t for COVID, we would’ve had great seasons that year.
Matt’s Pick: 1- We the People
“I’m picking We the People because I am feeling American and that’s the beginning of the constitution or some other important document. Also the inside is always the move when racing.”
In Hindsight: Matt’s American feeling and vague citations of key democratic writings were ultimately in vain, as We the People led most of the way but faded to finish fourth. I feel like there’s some symbolic point to make there, but I’ve been writing for a while and would rather keep things moving.
Hugh Esterson
As a professional race car driver, Hugh is definitely doing what he loves right now. You know, as post-college careers go, I suppose that racing cars around the country seems pretty interesting. He’s no tax consultant or insurance salesman, but he’s doing what he needs to do to get by, and I think we need to start appreciating people in his profession more. Someone has to do it, right?
Hugh’s Pick: 8- Barber Road
“I’m doubling down on my previous pick of Barber Road for similar, and some new, reasons. Firstly, unlike the horse, I won my race a few weeks ago at Barber Motorsports Park. The horse will follow suit. Secondly, the Colombian-born trainer of BR, John Ortiz, moved to New York when he was just five years old. All roads lead home, and Barber Road will make it a homecoming of victory.”
In Hindsight: It’s 26 points in IndyCar and 6 in Formula 1, but a seventh-place finish in horse racing doesn’t get you much of anything. Hugh’s fondness for a horse that performed worse in previous races than he did in his car was a curious strategy, and it seemed to punish him.
Eddy Jarvis
With the goal this summer of “trying to throw baseballs as hard as possible,” Eddy was a man of few words when picking a horse for this year’s Belmont Stakes.
Eddy’s Pick: 6- Mo Donegal
“He’s Irish and my grandpa likes him.”
In Hindsight: Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal was indeed named after County Donegal in Ireland, and help from grandparents is allowed on Paddy’s Picks. Eddy’s gripping analysis proved flawless.
Lucas Ludgate
As a recent graduate from Vanderbilt, Lucas Ludgate has been plagued by Tennessee betting laws for the past four years, but his enthusiasm for the races has never waned. The creation of his TVG account is the final step of his journey after countless triumphs, obstacles and life lessons.
Lucas’ Pick: 5- Creative Minister
“All I know for sure is that Rich Strike is not winning again. I’m riding with Creative Minister and TVG has a nice promo where if he finishes 2nd or 3rd I get my $10 stake back which is very nice in an eight-horse field.”
In Hindsight: Rich Strike was a fraud and finished sixth, but Creative Minister didn’t improve either and finished fifth. Despite offering Lucas an advantageous promo, TVG still got his $10.
Tyler Zorn
Ever since Tyler gave up on his dreams of becoming a dancer, refereeing has become his passion. Beginning as a small-time basketball referee in Baltimore while studying at Loyola Maryland, he has now progressed to the point of calling games for future professional athletes at showcase tournaments. College ball is next, and with time on his side in a field full of geriatrics, it feels inevitable to an outsider that he’ll break through those ranks. If you ask me, it’s the authority in his voice that really makes him a standout.
Tyler’s Pick: 1- We the People
“The easy pick is Rich Strike, coming off that Kentucky Derby victory, and an impressive number on the Beyer. Mo Donegal is impressive, but was disappointing at the Derby against better competition, including Rich Strike. My pick, More of a sleeper than some of the favorites, is We the People after posting an impressive 103 Beyer. This is the horse’s chance to prove itself in a big race, I’ll take the 2-1 morning line odds.
In Hindsight: Tyler’s dismissal of the Kentucky Derby was fortuitous in some ways and detrimental in others, as Rich Strike regressed from his Derby form while Mo Donegal improved to win. Picking the outsider We the People was a sound decision for a variety of reasons, but Tyler was nevertheless denied when his pick finished fourth. No fouls here.
Owen Roche
After years of mentorship and guidance at Fordham, Owen’s primary contribution to my life now is incendiary Paddy’s Picks contributions. No complaints yet.
Owen’s Pick: The 1977 Academy Award for Best Picture
“What’s my prediction for this race?
Pain!
After stunning runaway favorite Apollo Epicenter Creed on national television at The Spectrum Churchill Downs, Rocky Rich Strike Balboa is out to defend his world heavyweight title.
A young and hungry We The Clubber Lang People has the opportunity to overpower our underdog hero, especially after this past month’s fame and fortune have softened our former underdog hero.
This race could end like most, with the biggest, baddest horse alive pummeling their way to sure victory. But we’ve all seen how this movie ends. Don’t count out the Italian Stallion who’s already been beaten by the best. Who knows – by now, Epicenter may very well have passed on everything he knows to this Iron Horse.
Just make sure to check on Mickey Eric Reed during the bout.”
In Hindsight: Rocky took a dive in the second round to Spider Rico.