The Belmont Stakes is the final leg on the Triple Crown trail, but in the 2024 Paddy’s Picks backlogged triathlon, it’s the middle jewel, and a special one at that. For the first time in the history of the American Triple Crown, the 2024 Belmont Stakes was held at Saratoga Racecourse in Upstate New York. For any racing fan, it was the must-see event of the year. I stood beside my sister, Emma, and her friend, Niko, in the 161-year-old grandstand as the horses entered the final stretch.
There’s another story attached to this memory, one I mention among my guests’ picks. As the three of us looked for a spot with a view of the track, however, the most notable sensation was the awe-inspiring energy from the gathering crowd. It reminded me of photos of World Series games, when people crowded on top of surrounding buildings to get a peek of the field while countless others gathered around radios outside local shops. It was idyllic pandemonium.
At Saratoga, everyone was pushing their way to a slightly better position, either in view of the track or the nearest television, but the weather was beautiful and most were respectful and the horses were the main attraction. The noise was deafening from the starting bell to the very end, shaking the grandstand for several minutes afterwards. It was a rare occasion where the event lived up exactly to its billing. It was a Triple Crown race hosted by the most admired racetrack on the planet.
For this massive event, one of my annual favorites with a historic twist, I asked my most loyal Paddy’s Picks contributors to make Picks and provide analysis. As I mentioned in my Preakness article, I’ve been delayed on my end, but have provided grading and judgment of their picks in the time since. Let’s get into it.
Editor’s Note: As noted above, this is the second of three backlogged Paddy’s Picks articles being published simultaneously. The other two are linked below:
Link to Preakness Stakes guest review here.
Link to Travers Stakes guest review here.
Saratoga, Race 12
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Post Positions:
1- Seize the Grey (J. Torres, D. Lukas) 5-1
2- Resilience (J. Alvarado, W. Mott) 12-1
3- Mystik Dan (B. Hernandez Jr., K. McPeek) 6-1
4- The Wine Steward (M. Franco, M. Maker) 18-1
5- Antiquarian (J. Velasquez, T. Pletcher) 12-1
6- Dornoch (L. Saez, D. Gargan) 17-1
7- Protective (T. Gaffalione, T. Pletcher) 19-1
8- Honor Marie (F. Geroux, W. Beckman) 14-1
9- Sierra Leone (F. Prat, C. Brown) 8-5*
10- Mindframe (I. Ortiz, T. Pletcher) 5-1
Race:
Order of Finish:
1- Dornoch (6)
2- Mindframe (10)
3- Sierra Leone (9)
4- Honor Marie (8)
5- Antiquarian (5)
6- Protective (7)
7- Seize the Grey (1)
8- Mystik Dan (3)
9- The Wine Steward (4)
10- Resilience (2)
Patrick Moquin
Oh God, I have to go first? I guess there’s no better way to kick things off than with some sobering introspection.
Paddy’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“Sierra Leone is clearly the one to beat here, and it would be greedy of me to claim that I could find any horse to upset him on paper. He will have a lot of work to do from the back of the pack, but he nearly pulled it off in a much tougher Derby scenario. As I said earlier, he would have to regress to miss here.”
Grade: B
I really struggled to find the winner here, but I should have kept looking. The real kicker is that I talked up Dornoch quite a bit over the past few months, and the Saratoga track set up perfectly for him. Sierra Leone was probably the best horse in the race, but he’s developing a reputation now and I should have been quicker to go against the grain. Too safe.
Emma Moquin
Emma was sitting across from me for most of Belmont Stakes Day, which made it difficult for her to avoid sending in a pick. She would probably say that I’m persistent and annoying about that sort of thing. Weirdo.
Emma’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“I like Sierra Leone. I think with a better track condition and weaker competition that he can come out on top today. It was an unpredictable Derby and Preakness, so best of luck to everyone.”
Grade: B
Sierra Leone was the safe pick in this race, with many suspecting that everything was setting up for the Derby runner-up to cash in. Instead, he failed to make up ground for a second time at short odds. Emma will return in an anecdote soon.
Maddie Sandholm
I’ll be completely honest with all of you — the analysis you’re about to read is what ultimately motivated me to publish all this Paddy’s Picks work. I could refresh your memories, but Maddie does so below. She sets her own stage.
Maddie’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“‘Ello gov’na!
Let me take you back to the last Paddy’s Picks for the Preakness- Patrick and I are walking after Fordham’s graduation ceremony (shout out to Maryam and Chris!) and it’s almost race time. I’m still stuck on Seize the Grey and DRF’s spelling of ‘grey’ and jokingly say ‘ya’know what, if Seize the Grey wins, I’ll write my next pick in British English.’ And the universe must’ve thought that was hilarious because that’s just what happened minutes later. As the race started, the rain did too, and then Patrick simply stopped in the middle of the sidewalk to watch the end of it — so steps away from our destination and with grey clouds above my head, I had to watch the only horse I didn’t want to win take the race.
Anyways, here I am, talking about my favourite colour silks and how bloody rubbish this whole thing is. I love a colour block moment, and I’m chuffed to bits with Sierra Leone’s solid dark blue. Wish I had something a touch more witty to say about all this but it’s truly bonkers and I’m quite knackered from having to be a Brit.”
Grade: A+
No notes.
Shaily Jani
If I had to say two things about Shaily, I’d say that she loves a good pun and seizing the day. As long as we can avoid any existential crises, this should be smooth sailing.
Shaily’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Everyone knows I love a good pun. Everyone also knows I love to seize the day. What everyone doesn’t know is that I have developed my first grey hair at the ripe old age of 23. This was jarring to me because I knew that means I am one step closer to seeing the light. It was difficult to come to terms with but through the guidance of my elders (Patrick) I have come to accept that time waits for no one. We have no choice but to Seize the Grey.”
Grade: C
Ah. Distracted by middle age. And possibly the LSAT. It comes for us all. In her younger days, I’m supremely confident that Shaily would have made one of her classic knock-knock jokes and taken Dornoch to win. But that sort of zesty one-liner is behind her now.
Mia Agostinelli
Despite the fact that Mia has temporarily shelved her piloting plans to reenact All The President’s Men, I still consider my dream job for her to someday be a professional skywriter. Having a friend who could provide that service would be far too much power for me, and yet, it would create new and exciting opportunities to force my niche interests on the masses.
Mia’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“Sierra Leone with a win so close you can smell it.”
Grade: B
I’ve tried very hard to figure out if Mia was making a reference here. I know she likes Monty Python, and that’s a blind spot for me. She could also be quoting an obscure Pittsburgh Steelers assistant coach from the 1970s, which is another job that I think she could handle. In any case, Sierra Leone was mildly disappointing in another close defeat.
Allie Stofer
I’m writing this far off in the future. I don’t remember what Allie was up to in early June. Probably something super duper cool though! Maybe she was skydiving. Never mind. She was definitely skydiving.
Allie’s Pick: 4- The Wine Steward
“The Wine Steward — After an exciting win in (insert race here please), Mystik Dan let me down last time. For that reason, I must bet on a new horse.
The Wine Steward is my pick for one reason only: drunk people run fast. There is nothing holding them back. While many may think being drunk would be a negative because drunk people also cannot walk in a straight line, that means The Wine Steward will create confusion for the other horses.”
Grade: D-
Allie expected me to fill in for her and tell you all that Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby and lost in the Preakness. I should have known that this sort of laziness would lead to her picking The Wine Steward, who entered the Belmont Stakes with absolutely no chance and did very little to buck those expectations in the race. He finished (insert terrible result here please), letting Allie down after two solid Paddy’s Picks appearances in a row.
Chris Murray
Chris volunteered to write his own Paddy’s Picks article six or seven months ago, and his life since has been a whirlwind of meaningless academics and political intrigue. This winter may provide more opportunities, however, and his analysis in these guest articles remains well above par.
Chris’ Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Mystik Dan is a fraud. Everybody knows it, but only a brave few are willing to say it. Needless to say I will be looking elsewhere for my Belmont Stakes pick.
Seize the Grey at such a long opening line is bananas. Coming off of a stellar race I would’ve expected him to be among the favorites in Saratoga.
With that being said, I will not be choosing Lukas’ legend today. My heart is set on Mindframe. The young competitor has won both of his first two races in compelling style. It doesn’t matter if it’s wet or dry, if he has to lead from wire to wire or make a push from the back, if he starts on the inside or the outside. This horse simply has the goods.
I believe we may be witnessing a legend in the making folks, and I don’t want to miss the boat. Book Mindframe to win the Stakes this year and thank me later.”
Grade: A-
Chris was right about Mystik Dan and dead wrong about Seize the Grey, as both proved to be frauds in the Belmont. Getting to the meat of his analysis, however, Mindframe ran to expectations from a performance standpoint. Like many handicappers though, Chris underestimated the importance of experience, which was squarely to blame for the precocious colt throwing away a victory in the stretch.
Niko Konstantellis
Editor’s Note: No clue what Niko ended up betting on. I believe he went with Mindframe over Sierra Leone. While I don’t have a solid pick for the gentleman, he was with me at Saratoga for the race, and I have a brief story. Remember that anecdote I mentioned? This is where Emma comes back in. She, Niko and I bet a Pick Five that day and hit the first four legs. Going into the Belmont, we took Mindframe and Sierra Leone, agreeing on the former as the likely winner and covering ourselves with the favorite. Through the smallest of viewing windows in a packed crowd, we saw Mindframe in front as he passed us by. Just as he was moving out of view, I could see a slight hitch in his step. It turned out to be far worse than that. What I witnessed was the beginning of the colt’s grand excursion toward the far rail, one that ultimately cost us $500. Sierra Leone didn’t save us. Emma and Niko walked away thinking we had won. They couldn’t hear me above the roaring crowd.
Kristina Stevanovic
When Kristina and I text, it’s usually because there’s a strange and oddly specific observation to be made. A recent one on my end is that my hair always seems to look best as I’m sitting down in a barber’s chair. A recent one on her end was that she appreciated the USDA’s official definition of a Cornish hen.
Kristina’s Pick: 5- Antiquarian
“Okay I’m panicking but gonna go with what I know. I don’t like going with the favorite but I’m gonna go with a Todd Pletcher horse. The 5.”
Grade: B-
Sweaty wouldn’t have picked Antiquarian in a million years if she had time to focus. Still, it could’ve gone way worse. Antiquarian was a long shot but outran his odds to finish fifth, ahead of both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners. I hope she’s stopped panicking since June.
Alex Voorhis
Alex submitted her pick late, but I’ll spare all of you the trip to your sheds for your pitchforks. She picked The Wine Steward. She either didn’t cheat or is so bad at cheating that her competitors should frankly allow it.
Alex’s Pick: 4- The Wine Steward
“Sorry for the late submission but I choose The Wine Steward for no other reason than I like wine.”
Grade: D-
Wine is good. I got a bottle for my birthday and it’s the first thing I’ve ever owned that I’m saving for a special occasion. The Wine Steward was not good, like a vineyard behind a gas station. Special occasions for him will be free rides at children’s birthday parties going forward.
George McKnight
George’s declaration of brevity for the Belmont Stakes may seem like a token of generosity to readers. The truth is that he likely forgot to look at the Racing Form and had to whip something up real quick. Quick George Blast. QGB.
George’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“Keeping it brief this time but I’m gonna go with Sierra Leone. Mindframe is also interesting — young horse with two very promising Beyer speed figures to start, but he hasn’t shown he can run the 1-1/4 mile yet. Sierra Leone is the perfect mix of speed and pace that helps him stay toward the front of the pack. The Chad Brown horse is due to win the big one.”
Grade: B
Fading Mindframe was a wise decision for George, but taking Sierra Leone ahead of him was a step in the wrong direction. The Chad Brown runner has developed a nasty reputation as a hanging closer, and George was one of many bettors who got caught holding the bag. It’s impossible to know if George could have found Dornoch with more time, but he did seem like the kind of long shot in his wheelhouse.
Juliana Burke
Years and years ago, Jul’s idea to introduce herself to me in texting form was to pose as a fake classmate of mine named Petra asking about a homework assignment. It was the first of several high-concept bits she employed to forever sharpen my sense of humor.
Jul’s Pick: 2- Resilience
“Resilience is the type of horse that embodies the essence of why horse races were invented in the first place. No matter the obstacles or challenges that stand in the way, Resilience does not and will not back down. There is only one clear winner as I see it.”
Grade: F
Contrary to Jul’s heart-pounding declaration, both the obstacles and challenges seemed like more than enough to back down Resilience. In fact, he ran terribly. Jul’s pick finished dead last, completely undercutting her inspirational message to the Paddy’s Picks readership. I hope you all still find something in it.
Matt Ludington
I was basically in Matt’s backyard when I attended the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga this year. Niko was there too. We both spent the day making primate sounds in an attempt to coax Matt into joining us, but he sensed our trap and scampered away.
Matt’s Pick: 9- Sierra Leone
“After some contemplation I think it will be 1. Sierra Leone 2. The Wine Steward 3. Seize the Grey. Representative of the stages of life 1. Kid (chocolate) 2. Adult (alcoholism) 3. Elderly (grey).”
Grade: C
Let’s take Matt’s points one by one. Connecting Sierra Leone to childhood is a reach at best and opens several cans of worms at worst. Tying adulthood to alcoholism is just sad, straight up. Elderliness does have a gray quality to it. Points for accuracy, I suppose. I appreciate what Matt was trying to do with his Belmont Stakes analysis, but he ended up being wrong while also painting a desolate picture of life. Mission accomplished.
Audrey O’Brien
Every Tuesday, I go with a few friends to a bar for trivia. Actually, I do this twice a week, because I have two groups of friends who need scheduling to remain friends. Anyway, Audrey’s in the Tuesday group, and when the invitation goes out, she always responds with something positive and inspirational and then doesn’t show up.
Audrey’s Pick: 3- Mystik Dan
“Omggg Mystik Dan again. I love a familiar face so I’m gonna have to go with him.”
Grade: D
In my experience, Audrey is about as likely to love a familiar face as she is to run at a familiar face with a crowbar. Mystik Dan was disappointing after two solid starts in the Triple Crown, finishing well out of it in eighth.
Nicole Kraemer
If Nicole provides an explanation for her pick, I’ll give her a really sweet compliment in the grade section. This feels like a slam dunk for her. I mean, who doesn’t provide an explanation for Paddy’s Picks?
Nicole’s Pick: 10- Mindframe
“10, don’t ask why.”
Grade: A-
Ah. Well that’s a shame. Mindframe ran very well until he decided to lurch toward the crowd in the stretch and cost himself the race. Nicole is a fine person.
Corbin Gregg
I wonder what Corbin’s been reading lately.
Corbin’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Seize the Grey is on the way to 50 races won.”
Grade: F
Seize the Grey was bad and the reference in Corbin’s analysis was both unsavory and clumsy. I fear that my outright rejection of his sex-book-based handicapping method will only escalate matters, but I have to grade fairly too.
Kreena Vora
Kreena shrugs dismissively and the ground crumbles beneath the sad individual or concept standing before her.
Kreena’s Pick: 3- Mystik Dan
“I’m picking Mystik Dan again. He’s speedy. Boo Sierra Leone. Mindframe looks speedy too and I wouldn’t be mad if he won.”
Grade: C+
Mystik Dan wasn’t speedy at all, but that’s where my criticism ends. Kreena was obviously a little stuck here and didn’t seem close to finding Dornoch to win, but a lot of the ancillary observations were solid. Kreena was right to boo Sierra Leone, a consistent disappointment despite his obvious talent. Recognizing Mindframe’s potential while fading him as a win candidate was also a great decision, even if he got much closer to the wire than her top pick.
Alyssa Macaluso
Every time Alyssa sends me a pick for a horse race, I tell her what a great job she did before she sends another five texts’ worth of analysis. My inability to remember her process is one of my last shortcomings as an editor of this pony blog.
Alyssa’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Seize the Grey is my first pick, hands down. At this point, you know I will always go for gray horse (or a paint horse, if the opportunity presents itself), and Seize the Grey is the perfect combination of both great beauty and good humor (i do love a good pun). Does it bother me that they used the British spelling of “gray”? Yes, but not enough to dissuade me from seizing the opportunity. Hopefully, it just means that seize the day will bring an elevated and refined air to his racing approach that can beat out more american-minded horses (and prove the historical precedent when Americans and British go head-to-head wrong).
Dornoch is also a fantastic name. and in almost every picture of him i found online, his teeth are barred, meaning he’s in it to win it. the other horses beware, because Dornoch will soon be knocking at their doors.
Last but not least, I would like to put Mindframe out there. Although he is at the end of the line, I have hope he can bring up the caboose. Hopefully, his name will help him channel the right frame of mind for Saratoga.”
Grade: B-
Dornoch and Mindframe were both fantastic picks and finished in order at the wire, but Alyssa made the error of throwing Seize the Grey on top. The Preakness winner didn’t come close to repeating in the Belmont, betraying Alyssa’s profound confidence in him. As others noted, the British spelling ruining the pun in the name may have had more of an impact than Alyssa, a talented copy editor, gave it credit for.
Ava Peabody
One thing I’ve noticed about Ava in her relatively young Paddy’s Picks career is that she’s got a lot of conviction about stuff. There are people who look at an indecipherable puzzle and agonize over the knowledge they lack. There are others who smile, amused by the sea of confusion around them. Ava’s neither one of those people. She’s got this. She doesn’t understand a goddamn thing, but she’s got this.
Ava’s Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Mindframe. 100%. Because that’s not a word and it’s so inspirational to me when people make up words. Like the world is truly your oyster. Sure, call that horse Mindframe. Doesn’t mean anything. Why not? To dust you shall return.”
Grade: A-
It seems fitting that Mindframe was well on his way to winning this race before he hit a sick drift move in the stretch and cost himself the victory. In many ways, that conforms exactly to Ava’s expectations for him. It’s really a semantic argument, anyway, all this talk of a winner. He proved what he needed to prove, ya know?
Esme Bleecker-Adams
Esme intended to provide illustrations for all three Triple Crown races, but her work for the Belmont Stakes has not yet been made. It is more than likely that she gave up on me and my horrendous publishing schedule. If she ever provides a drawing after this goes up, I will edit the piece to reflect this wonderful change.
Esme’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Intrigued by Mindframe, as it looks like they’ve run very few races but have made it to the big leagues, and the Belmont would be a perfect opportunity to be a breakout star. That said I think I’ll stick with Seize The Grey since he has the momentum from the Preakness. Hoping the wind is still in his sails.”
Grade: C
I’ve been giving out some brutal grades to guests who picked Seize the Grey, but I can only be so harsh to Esme. Her reasoning was very sound and she even included some race analysis. She ultimately missed out, but there’s something to work with here.
Grace Getman
If Esme is my greatest enabler, Grace is my accountant taking off her glasses and rubbing the bridge of her nose before informing me that I’ve blown through all my money building a giraffe reserve.
Grace’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Seize the Grey has earned my loyalty and respect.”
Grade: D
Loyalty and respect are hard to come by in handicapping for a reason. Seize the Grey failed to repeat in the Belmont, a more competitive race than the Preakness. We can only hope that Grace becomes a bit more cutthroat in her gambling going forward.
Clara Gerlach
I forget if I ever mentioned this, but when Clara and I worked on our school newspaper together, we used to commute back from Fordham’s Lincoln Center campus to the Rose Hill campus on the Ram Van. Most of these rides took place around midnight, so I remember shockingly little from them, but I do remember enjoying the company. There was one where she tried to teach me German words though. I struggled with that one.
Clara’s Pick: 3- Mystik Dan
“My rationale is that Mystik Dan is a known winner, and he might be able to keep that streak, but I’m thinking Seize the Grey will truly do what their namesake suggests and be more than resilient.”
Grade: D+
Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan were both contenders in this race, but both struggled mightily and finished in seventh and eighth place, respectively. Clara used her memory to make picks for the Belmont, which can prove effective. It’s a shame that the Derby and Preakness winners both seem to be somewhat fraudulent.
Cristine Kalinski
In the Copa America Final this year, Cristine could do nothing but watch on as Argentina defeated her beloved Colombian squad to earn another shiny trophy for Lionel Messi. As a slight consolation, she also got to watch on as Colombian fans absolutely destroyed Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. They clearly weren’t prepared for truly passionate sports fans. Everyone knows that reinforcing the ventilation system is a must.
Cristine’s Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Alright so I have to go with Mindframe for two reasons. For one, being in the right frame of mind when racing is absolutely essential so I love the name because it reflects exactly the mentality I want my pick to have. My second reason is purely personal bias since I’m studying visual processing in the brain. So, ‘mind’ and ‘frame’ both being in the name really seals the deal and leaves me with no other choice. Full send on Mindframe.”
Grade: A-
Cristine’s reasoning is unfortunately too cool to really mess with. Her first point had some real tenacity behind it, right out of a Nike ad. The second was basically a brag about the insanely cool stuff she’s working on. She failed to mention that she’s doing that work in Cambridge, a small town near Boston. I think there’s a Wendy’s out there working on visual processing in the brain. That’s why the burger patties are square.
Owen Roche
I sometimes get the feeling that Owen knows how to operate a typewriter.
Owen’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“Seize the Grey because, to paraphrase Kathy Hochul, ‘Fuck it. Whatever. Fuck you.’”
Grade: D+
It’s easy to be taken in by the governor’s natural charisma, but she led Owen astray in the Belmont. Seize the Grey finished seventh and would have finished ninth if he took the Taconic.
Gil Russo
Gil included the Belmont Stakes in a game of trivia she organized the week before the race. I was immensely flattered to be invited to participate, even though she ultimately stumped me with a mean question.
Gil’s Pick: 5- Antiquarian
“Omg, I’ve gotta go with Antiquarian out of excitement and loyalty after using his name in trivia this week.”
Grade: B
Antiquarian was the answer to one of Gil’s questions, one that I got right. Bringing back memories of one of my triumphs gets her a slight grade boost, and Antiquarian ran pretty well for his odds. Solid effort.
Emma Regovich
Now that I think about it, I’m not sure I’ve spoken to Emma more than 30 times in person. That’s a strange way to think about a friendship, especially one I value considerably. I’m confident that we’ve spoken face to face 10 times, and I’d hesitantly say we’ve broken 20. Anything more than that is a stretch though. Anyway.
Emma’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“I’m not really sure why but I like the same Seize the Grey. It just seems like a fun catchphrase.”
Grade: D+
Emma didn’t go with Seize the Grey when he won the Preakness, at which point the catchphrase would have been very profitable. Unfortunately, he didn’t come close to repeating in the Belmont, falling well behind better horses on a dry track. This doesn’t make anything Emma said in her explanation wrong, but it does knock her grade down a bit.
Christian Madlansacay
Christian and I haven’t spoken much recently, but whenever he makes a pick for my pony blog, he drops a disarming one-liner that makes me laugh. Sometimes they’re total throwaways and sometimes they’re just surprising, but I appreciate his craft.
Christian’s Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Mindframe because the mind games will go crazy.”
Grade: A-
They do go crazy though. Mindframe ran a great race that should have won the Belmont, but he took a very bad step in the stretch and had to settle for second. I doubt this will faze Christian in any noticeable way.
Emily Ellis
Emily claims to be busy with grad school a lot, but all she ever talks about is grad-school-related hijinks. I hear all about impromptu fire drills and lockdowns and crazy classmates and ridiculous discussions, but I’ve seen her legitimately working twice, max. I’m not sure what to conclude from this, but I’m going to get to the bottom of it.
Emily’s Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Mindframe. Have a feeling he’s in the right frame of mind. Ha.”
Grade: B+
First off, it’s always an elite move to laugh at your own joke in writing. That way people know it’s funny! Oddly enough, Mindframe wasn’t in the right frame of mind at all, and it’s probably the only thing he did wrong to lose the Belmont. It feels a little mean to bump Emily down for that, considering she sacrificed logic to make a funny, but rules are rules unfortunately.
Jacob Blank
Because I’ve vowed to finish The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel with Jacob, my former roommate who I started the series with, progress in the final season has been slow. In sporadic meetings with Jacob over the last three years, I believe I’ve watched three episodes. I’m on pace to finish the series by 2030.
Jacob’s Pick: 6- Dornoch
“Now, as I’m an avid punster and a huge fan of the Broadway musical Newsies, one might think I’d go with Seize the Grey as the best candidate for the Preakness. But I believe that Dornoch is the top notch choice here. He’s the gateway to the future—a portal to a new world of horse racing. Just watch what happens: the world will know, once and for all, what it means to be a winner.”
Grade: A+
Jacob absolutely nailed this. Dornoch was a big underdog in the Belmont, but superior wordplay ruled the day. Seize the Grey, cleverly titled but perhaps spelled incorrectly, failed to repeat and proved to be a good toss. Dornoch, meanwhile, ran like a champion on the front end and outfinished Mindframe and Sierra Leone. Excellent analysis.
Ed Jarvis
Eddy sent in his pick at a profoundly late hour. You find out interesting things about people late at night.
Ed’s Pick: 1- Seize the Grey
“I’m on Seize the Grey – it’s after 1 am and I initially read it as ‘seize the gay’ – the fact that it’s June tells me there’s no other option.”
Grade: D+
You might blame the suspicious misunderstanding, but regardless of the reason, Eddy failed to find the Belmont winner by a considerable distance. Seize the Grey, the Preakness winner, was a profound disappointment and finished seventh.
Lucas Ludgate
Every now and again, Lucas asks me if I like a musical artist and then tells me about the deep dive he’s doing. The secret I keep from the music appreciators in my life is that I’m practically incapable of sitting through an entire album, so I regularly have to look them up while people are talking to me about them. It’s my shame and I live with it everyday.
Lucas’ Pick: 10- Mindframe
“Mindframe. Only two races but he stretched our well and has the highest potential. Won different ways too.”
Grade: A-
So many people submit nonsense picks in these articles, so you’ll have to give me a moment to get back into a competent headspace for Lucas. He implied that he was wary of Mindframe’s rapid rise in class but ultimately dismissed those concerns, instead focusing on the colt’s two excellent performances and choosing to see potential ahead of the Belmont. I did the same thing in my analysis and considered him a very talented horse with room to improve. It turns out that we were both right, as Mindframe made a commanding move at the top of the stretch and actually passed Dornoch to briefly take the lead. That inexperience ultimately proved to make the difference, however, as he ducked away toward the outside rail to allow Dornoch to retake the lead at the wire. Lucas correctly identified potential but made a common handicapping mistake in the process. It’s very easy to get excited about a successful lightly raced horse. They can provide a ton of upside and value, but there’s another side to that coin. In a big spot, sometimes it’s simply too soon.