On the morning of the Travers Stakes two weeks ago, I was in the midst of the most difficult writing I had ever had to complete. With the deadline for my Columbia masters project fast approaching, I was frantically arranging thousands of words in the hopes of making a coherent narrative. Then my phone went off.
In the span of a half hour that Saturday morning, I received five texts about the upcoming Travers Stakes. Specifically, people were asking me why they hadn’t been asked to contribute for the race on Paddy’s Picks. Proud and racked by guilt all at once, I hesitantly put aside my own writing and rounded up as many guests as I could. Their picks and my reviews are below.
There are less guests in this piece than the usual look back article, and to usual guests I didn’t reach out to on this occasion, I offer my sincere apologies. In a slapdash effort, I basically just texted everyone I had spoken to in the previous three weeks or so in order to get a reasonable variety of guests. I’ll be sure to involve more folks in races this autumn.
As for my masters project, I’m happy to say that I submitted it ahead of schedule and received positive feedback from my advisor. Earlier in that same week, I got an article published in BloodHorse Magazine as well. It’s been a very productive stretch for me, but it’s always nice to return to Paddy’s Picks and lazily insult my loyal and increasingly knowledgeable guest handicappers. Let’s take a look.
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
The Field:
1- Forte (I. Ortiz/T. Pletcher)
2- Arcangelo (J. Castellano/J. Antonuci)
3- Tapit Trice (J. Ortiz/T. Pletcher)
4- Mage (L. Saez/G. Delgado)
5- National Treasure (J. Velasquez/B. Baffert)
6- Disarm (J. Rosario/S. Asmussen)
7- Scotland (J. Alvarado/W. Mott)
Race:
Full Order of Finish
1- Arcangelo (5-2)
2- Disarm (12-1)
3- Tapit Trice (13-1)
4- Forte (8-5)
5- National Treasure (6-1)
6- Scotland (7-1)
7- Mage (9-2)
Mia Agostinelli
It feels strange to use Paddy’s Picks for anything other than hard-hitting horse racing analysis and completely silly nonsense, but one of my guests is working toward something far more meaningful than any filler I could ever come up with. On Nov. 5, my friend Mia will compete in the 2023 TCS New York City Marathon. She will represent “Girls on the Run,” a non-profit organization which funds and organizes programming for young girls to develop important life skills. Mia is an exemplary person training for a highly noble cause and I strongly encourage my readers to donate to her effort at this link.
Mia’s Pick: 2- Arcangelo
“It feels like I’m descending into hell taking the LIRR from Grand Central.”
Grade: A+
So no, as you may have guessed, Mia did not make the above comment about Arcangelo specifically. It is the next thing she said after picking the horse though, so I counted it as analysis because it made me chuckle. One can only hope that she emerged from the fiery depths in time to see her horse cross the line first in emphatic fashion.
Lucas Ludgate
Lucas deserves special credit for being one of the chief instigators behind this article. He was the first to text me the morning of the race in search of a guest spot. My schedule had no bearing on his fierce enthusiasm for the Sport of Kings, which he still can’t bet on because he lives in a state without consistent electricity.
Lucas’ Pick: 2- Arcangelo
“Forte and Arcangelo clearly ahead of the pack. I like Arcangelo to do it again.”
Grade: A+
Another race, another win that Lucas failed to profit on. His triumph may not be felt in his considerable McDuck-esque coffers, but it will forever live on in the annals of Paddy’s Picks.
Joan Moquin
My mother just began a new school year at JFK Middle School, which invariably includes moments of dread and eagerness for her in equal measure. Fortunately, many of the usual anxieties were allayed this year, as she thoroughly enjoyed all her new students. In a horse racing update, Mom also hit her first superfecta at Saratoga last month. She was extremely excited but played it very cool.
Mom’s Pick: 1- Forte and 2- Arcangelo
“One-Two Punch Exacta Box:
#1 -Forte
- I. Ortiz, jockey
- Jim Dandy Stakes winner
- 105 Beyers
- Todd “is God” Pletcher, trainer
#2 -Arcangelo
- Belmont Stakes winner
- 102 Beyers
- J. Castellano, jockey, is having a bang-up year.
- J. Antonucci, trainer, got herself a horse!”
Grade: A-
Forte didn’t hold up his end of the exacta, letting my mother down as the beaten favorite. She still deserves credit for picking Arcangelo though, as that colt went on to win convincingly as she suspected. Very solid effort.
Emma Moquin
Emma went back to Penn State last month, and in the weeks since she left, we both observed that progress in my academic and professional pursuits picked up noticeably. It’s unclear if her pleasant demeanor was distracting me over the summer or if she was secretly sabotaging me during her time in Oceanside.
Emma’s Pick: 2- Arcangelo
“I’m sticking with Arcangelo. If it ain’t broke and none of the other horses were convincing enough to change my mind.”
Grade: A+
Emma’s favorite horse ever is Gun Runner, but it’s possible that she may have a new one by year’s end. She has now seen Arcangelo win three major races in New York this season, and with the Breeders’ Cup ahead, the colt has the opportunity to solidify his place in her pantheon of greats.
Rebecca Patterson
Rebecca’s lessons in the sport of horse racing have slowed over the summer but I think it’s high time we get her back in the flow of things. My cousin from Connecticut (which sounds like the title of an off-Broadway play) doesn’t have nearly enough time to accommodate my badgering for ponies but she’ll simply have to make due.
Rebecca’s Pick: 5- National Treasure
“National treasure bc there are a lot of winnings, good jockey and because who doesn’t love a National treasure.”
Grade: C
From one national treasure to another, I respectfully disagreed with Rebecca on this one. She picked a fraudulent horse for the Travers and is probably now in crippling debt.
George McKnight
George is currently on vacation in Ireland, but shortly before he returned to his flock of sheep, he and I attended a Mets game at Citi Field. Following the team’s stirring 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, we are both firmly convinced that a trip to the playoffs is well in hand.
George’s Pick: 6- Disarm
“He’s got blinkers on today, and i’m thinking the move to a mile and a quarter will benefit him down the stretch. He got beat by Forte and Saudi Crown at the Jim Dandy but I’m seeing something different here. As my picks usually go, I’ll pair him with Forte in an exacta. I don’t love that Arcangelo hasn’t raced since Belmont, and National Treasure has been unconvincing. Maybe I’ll finally break out of my slump this time.”
Grade: A-
Picking Forte in the exacta was somewhat lazy, a mistake I made as well, but George found an excellent value play with Disarm. If he had seen the upside in Arcangelo, he may have earned a tidy profit, but his handicapping was sound for the most part.
Shaily Jani
Shaily’s skyward trajectory in the world of chess has plateaued somewhat in recent… months, but she has redoubled her efforts in raccoon-based humor to make up for it. She spent the weekend looking after her dog, Tucker, and was also spotted in Central Park rocking her “summer pants,” featuring bold blue and white stripes and large pockets.
Shaily’s Pick: 5- National Treasure
“He’s failed me in the past but I think he’ll come thru for me this time. I hope the magnitude of my love for Nic Cage will propel this horsie forward into victory.”
Grade: C
I’m not going to say that Nic Cage failed her, because Nic Cage has never once failed anyone in any capacity. Everyone should go see Pig as soon as they possibly can. But Shaily’s horsie definitely missed the mark in this one, proving far inferior to competitors that have beaten him before.
Maddie Sandholm
Maddie’s return to New York last month was more than welcome and coincided nicely with the 2023 running of the Travers. Beyond asking her to make a last-second pick for this article, I’ve also made her feel right at home in the Big Apple by forcing her to help with my fantasy football draft and throwing a volleyball at her head.
Maddie’s Pick: 2- Arcangelo
“The pink and blue sunburst combo stands out as the best silks in the field. National Treasure and Scotland also have some great color combos, pink/aqua and dark blue/gold, respectively, but I think Arcangelo has this one in the bag.”
Grade: A+
I don’t know if anyone’s been tracking this, but as soon as Maddie began using colors as a handicapping strategy, her Paddy’s Picks prospects have skyrocketed. If she wins every single race she picks for the next three years, she might just reach a 50% win rate. Taking horses like Arcangelo, draped in pink and royal blue and bearing a beautiful rose emblem, is an excellent start.
Clara Gerlach
A few months ago, Clara began texting me every Tuesday asking me about my general welfare, horse racing triumphs and writing endeavors. It’s proven to be an extremely helpful exercise because taking time out of my day to focus on myself is annoying.
Clara’s Pick: 4- Mage
“Screw a national treasure when you have a horse that can do magic!”
Grade: D
National Treasure was a good horse to disregard, but he still did better than Clara’s ultimate selection. Mage finished dead last, possibly because Clara went out of her way to slight the Declaration of Independence.
Owen Roche
In his rookie season as a men’s league baseball player, Owen was named to the All-Star team in the expansion division of the New York City Metro Baseball League. But ever since earning his first hit for the Weekend Warriors back in the spring, he has been the greatest athlete in the history of The Fordham Observer.
Owen’s Pick: 3- Tapit Trice
“‘tapit trice is going big’ -John on horseracingnation.com. Good enough for me — bet the farm. As user Carolyn Blevins says: ‘Safe and fair perfect rides to all.’”
Grade: B+
In a time crunch, Owen relied on the opinions of anonymous horse racing fans online. He was not punished as severely as he could have been for his unoriginality, but Tapit Trice finished well behind Arcangelo and Disarm. One assumes that he could have nailed that down with more careful reflection. It’s me, I’m the one assuming.
Corbin Gregg
I’m glad I got to know Corbin before the fantasy football season started because he’s now a starving werewolf and will remain in this state for the next four months. After finishing dead last in 2022, he is entering 2023 with a mission. Let’s hope this mission fares better than his work in the Travers.
Corbin’s Pick: 4- Mage
“Mage is going to cast a spell on this race and apparate to the finish line.”
Grade: D
Mage is a familiar face for Paddy’s Picks readers by now, having won the Kentucky Derby in May. But those who continue going back to the mystical name have been punished severely in subsequent starts. Corbin drew a very short straw here.
Kreena Vora
Kreena had her first day as a grad student at Columbia Wednesday, an opportunity she dove into head first, embracing all challenges with fervent excitement. Last week, I gave her a tour of campus so she could get better acclimated, and I learned all sorts of new things along the way.
Kreena’s Pick: 1- Forte
“Hopefully horse racing is Forte’s forte. I pick him.”
Grade: B-
Horse racing is usually Forte’s forte, but the Travers was a rare performance in pianissimo for the reigning champion. Kreena agreed with the betting public in this one, as Forte went off as the favorite, making a fourth-place finish all the more disappointing. Hope she doesn’t bring that kind of math with her uptown.
Allie Stofer
Allie organized a very pleasant picnic on Sunday in Central Park, an event I desperately needed after several days confined in my house working. A few days earlier, we shared notes on “Once Upon a One More Time,” a musical about storybook princesses set to Britney Spears music. We were both confused and did not help one another understand it better.
Allie’s Pick: 3- Tapit Trice
“I love alliteration. And I love a name that sounds like a saying (Third time’s the charm in case it wasn’t clear). Tapit Trice is the whole package. Special shout out to Scotland because it’s close to Wales.”
Grade: B+
I’m not sure when Allie decided to make Wales her entire personality, but this particular reference felt forced. Tapit Trice has been a go-to for Allie this season and he hasn’t yet delivered the winning performance she’s looking for. He was far from disgraced in third, however.
Ava Peabody
Remember that Britney Spears musical discussion I had with Allie? Ava was there too! She was also too confused by the plot to help me understand it, but she did manage to find a recording of “Toxic” by Jennifer Simard on YouTube, for which I’m eternally grateful. In older news, Ava is working her way through a documentary series about the Seattle Mariners, and I haven’t heard any updates from her in awhile but I’m letting her live her own life.
Ava’s Pick: 7- Scotland
“Scotland. All my money. Distancing myself from Disarm.”
Grade: C
Bit of a double knock here. Not only did Ava pick the disappointing Scotland, but in doing so, she abandoned upset runner-up Disarm, a horse she loved earlier this season. Is her confidence shaken? Will she ever recover? Will the Nationals ever win a baseball game?
Alyssa Macaluso
Alyssa took a brief break from her world domination plot to pick a few horses for me in the Travers. She invariably picks multiple horses, putting my entire evaluation process to the test. Fortunately for me (and unfortunately for her), there wasn’t much ambiguity this time around.
Alyssa’s Pick: 5- National Treasure, 4- Mage and 7- Scotland
“national treasure (because of my lord and savior nicholas kim coppola, aka nick cage). mage, because i like the magical connotations and believe in him to make a miracle happen. and scotland, just for shits and giggles. i feel like the scots could use a victory.”
Grade: D
Wowee. I usually try to give Alyssa as much leeway as possible because of her superior character and general kindness and all, but this was a rough outing. It’s statistically… difficult to pick three horses and have them finish in the last three places of a race, but the State Department’s newest star pulled it off here.
Emily Ellis
What’s Emily been up to? Ah, the baseball book! In another effort to justify her taste in literature, Emily convinced me to join a small book club for the romance novel, Reaching First. I thought the dialogue or spotty sports knowledge would be my biggest issues, but in the end, it was actually the justice system in this fictional version of Raleigh, North Carolina. Both main characters perjured themselves on the stand but love won out in this moving tale of court-mandated community service and illiteracy.
Emily’s Pick: 7- Scotland
“Outlander! For the men in kilts.”
Grade: C
I believe “Outlander” is a show? Scotland finished sixth.
Ryan Harvey
Ryan accepted a position as Emily Ellis’ boyfriend some time last year, and I assume he was looking over her shoulder when I texted her asking for a Travers pick. That or he was looking over my shoulder and he’s just very sneaky.
Ryan’s Pick: 5- National Treasure
“I pick Nicolas Cage.”
Grade: C
Never a terrible pick, but in this case, National Treasure did a disservice to his iconic namesake. Still, I appreciate the chutzpah it took for Ryan to pick a horse without being asked. I will always reward that sort of roguish behavior.
Jacob Blank
Little fun fact: In my junior year, my former roommate Jacob lent me one of his cups so that I could have water during meals. I used that same cup for the next six months and left it on my desk so I wouldn’t confuse it with the others he brought. I don’t know where I’m going with this anecdote and don’t believe there’s anything else to it.
Jacob’s Pick: 1- Forte
“Face it, fellow fans of horse-racing: it is the fearless Forte who will, flawlessly and for certain, fight furiously for first place. (Optional addition: Fahgeht about ittt 🤌).”
Grade: B-
Forte finished fourth. Fery Funfortunate.
Chris Murray
After a spectacular summer with his cool friend Pat and a bunch of chumps, Chris has settled back into campus life at Rose Hill. In addition to assuming his old position as Sports & Health Editor at The Fordham Observer, he also plans to pursue a number of athletic extracurriculars in the Bronx. As a rising senior, he is one of my last friends still in college, soon destined to join his old, decrepit companions in the great beyond.
Chris’ Pick: 1- Forte
“When I was last at Saratoga, Forte and Irad Ortiz, Jr. ran a fantastic race to edge Saudi Crown by a nose. It would be remiss to not go back to this exceptional horse, even with the stacked field. I believe this is the moment for Forte to exact revenge on Arcangelo and continue his dominant career. While Forte is my pick, I could also see long shot Disarm bouncing back from a difficult, muddy performance last month and putting on a show. So many closers in this race and forte loves having some competition down the stretch to push him. Should be fun.”
Grade: B
Chris put a lot of thought into this race, which earned him some bonus points. A fourth-place finish usually isn’t terrible, but it’s always a little disappointing when the favorite delivers a dull performance like Forte did. Arcangelo proved himself to be the real deal this time around, though Chris did find a nice value pick in Disarm.
Grace Getman
As you’re about to read, Grace is on to me in my quest to indoctrinate the youth. My only hope is to bury her in this article and hope other guests don’t catch on.
Grace’s Pick: 7- Scotland
“Convinced that Paddy’s Picks is a Pavlovian exercise in teaching us to follow horse racing. Scotland. He’s a bonny good fellow.”
Grade: C
Scotland was a right bampot, he was, finishing sixth.
Esme Bleecker-Adams
Esme and I haven’t spoken much over the past few months, and the chats we have had are secret and none of your business. So quit asking.
Esme’s Pick: 2- Arcangelo
“A lot of familiar faces, I’m gonna go ahead and say I think Arcangelo can do it again, because I ignored him last time and it was a big mistake.”
Grade: A+
Ever the shrewd handicapper, Esme used her prior knowledge of this year’s three-year-old crop to great effect. Arcangelo was far and away the best horse the last time she saw this group in the Belmont, and the colt came through again in the Travers. This time, Esme was on the wave.
Jill Rice
My friends and I threw a farewell party for Jill several months ago, and unless I’m mistaken, she just left the United States a few days before this article was hopefully published. I don’t know how we were all bamboozled into throwing her a German-themed extravaganza, only for her to spend her entire summer in Maryland. But I respect her for making a healthy farewell tour before presumably setting out on the trip I thought she was already on.
Jill’s Pick: 5- National Treasure
“As someone leaving the country in less than two weeks, I’m going with National Treasure because I’m going to consider myself a national treasure leaving the country. I have definitely heard the name Tapit Trice before and he might be good, but I’m going pro-USA with National Treasure.”
Grade: C
Get out of here while you can! The country’s gone stale!
Megan DiDominica
Megan spent most of her summer either stressing about medical school applications or traveling the globe with friends and family. There didn’t seem to be much in-between but there did seem to be a nice balance. Since childhood, I’ve seen Megan stress a good deal, but the relaxation part is fairly new and exciting.
Megan’s Pick: 5- National Treasure
“National treasure. No question. Nicolas Cage. Declaration of Independence. Green and white.”
Grade: C
I don’t have any questions either because Megan didn’t lie once in her analysis. Nicolas Cage indeed. Absolutely the Declaration of Independence. Green and white? A must. But National Treasure finished fifth.
Nicole Kraemer
Wait, has Nicole traveled to Europe?
Nicole’s Pick: 7- Scotland
“Omg ofc Scotland plz. What a great country. Lucky number 7.”
Grade: C
Omg, she has! I’m sure Scotland is a great country and 7 is definitely a lucky number, but Nicole had a tough time in this one.