An apology and explanation are in order. The Travers Stakes occurred on Saturday, Aug. 27, and since that day, I’ve worked tirelessly to complete this guest analysis article and appease my tens and tens of voracious readers. Unfortunately, between schoolwork at Columbia, a part-time job and a number of social engagements, I haven’t had my usual amount of time to dedicate to crafting an 8,000-word document for hard-hitting racing analysis.
Though it took longer to complete than it normally would, I can assure readers that my effort and the efforts of my thoroughly entertaining guests are not lacking in any way as autumn closes in on the racing season. Life just gets in the way sometimes.
You should all know the drill by now. The full order of finish for the 2022 Travers Stakes is provided below. Analysis is then provided by veterans of the game and complete novices alike. Because familiar face and clear favorite Epicenter delivered with a powerful winning performance, many contributors were dead on but many others made up for their defeats with blind enthusiasm, this publication’s preferred demeanor in any case. Let’s take a look.
Saratoga, Race 12
Travers Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt
Order of Finish:
- Epicenter (6)
- Cyberknife (1)
- Zandon (8)
- Rich Strike (2)
- Gilded Age (4)
- Artorius (5)
- Ain’t Life Grand (3)
- Early Voting (7)
Joan Moquin
For those of you following Paddy’s Picks for my mother’s ongoing back-to-school saga, we’re finally at the end of a wonderful summer off. While past summers have ended with a fair deal of dread, she’s taking her impending return to school much better this year. After several months of consistent betting at Belmont and Saratoga, she was also in razor sharp form for the Travers, though she apologized for the brevity of her analysis.
Mom’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“I think it’s Epicenter all the way. Impressive past performances and ‘epic’ 102 Beyer Speed Figure are hard to beat. To Win: Epicenter. Exacta Box: Epicenter, Cyberknife, Artorius.”
In Hindsight: She kept it brief and cashed in. Though Artorius didn’t run as well as my mother hoped, Epicenter ran away to a commanding victory and Cyberknife finished second. The win may have been long overdue for Epicenter, but after picking Mo Donegal to win the Belmont Stakes in June, Mom’s got a small string of success going. Hopefully her students are cute this year. They’re always either cute or bratty.
Emma Moquin
Emma moved back to Penn State two weeks ago and we all miss her dearly. When I reached out for a Travers pick, she was trying to get her homework done before her classes started so she could get a head start. There’s enough evidence in day-to-day life to suggest that we’re related, but moments like those give me pause.
Emma’s Pick: 5- Artorius
“I like Artorius in this race. I like him for the same reason I am wary of him. He has never faced the upper horses in this race such as Epicenter, so we as an audience don’t know whether or not he can beat Epicenter but I’m feeling half glass full today and saying that he can. His past performances have been phenomenal and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing what he does here today. Good luck today everyone!”
In Hindsight: Emma and I happened to agree on Artorius’ form, and in an effort to beat short-priced favorite Epicenter, we both gambled on further improvement from the precocious three-year-old. That improvement didn’t come and Epicenter won easily, but the logic was still sound and should serve Emma well in future races.
Denice Patterson
In her debut for Paddy’s Picks, Aunt Denice is entering with a newfound interest in my lifelong passion. A few weeks ago, my mother’s brother’s family from Connecticut joined my family at Saratoga Racecourse. My Aunt Denice bought in immediately, sitting through my half-hour Daily Racing Form lecture before betting nearly every race on the card. Her work for the Travers is an enthusiastic extension of that weekend — she’s in.
Aunt Denice’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“He won as much as the others, more than some, and he hasn’t raced at Saratoga yet. You know how I feel about that. It’s an unknown, and Saratoga can be his best track yet.”
In Hindsight: Instead of dwelling on Ain’t Life Grand, who finished seventh behind better horses, I’d like to tell my readers about a horse named Tommy the Torch. On my aunt’s first day betting at Saratoga, I took her through the esoteric statistics in the Daily Racing Form and used horses on the day’s card as examples. The one she became fixated on was Tommy the Torch, a perennial dirt runner at Finger Lakes Racetrack entering far deeper waters on the turf at Saratoga. I was trying to use him as an example of a weak runner, but she had other ideas. She said she had a feeling and put Tommy in an exacta with Neuro, the favorite in the race. Then she bet on the pair two more times, tripling her total bet. She did so accidentally. Neuro won handily and Tommy the Torch closed from out of nowhere to take second, earning her $150 on her first day at the track. That’s the sort of horse you never forget.
Rebecca Patterson
Along with her mother and brother, the former of which you all just met and the latter of which you’re going to meet soon, Rebecca was also in attendance at Saratoga for her first experience with horse racing a few weeks ago. There were no quick returns or stunning victories in Rebecca’s first day at the track. But she persevered in a way few people would and managed to find a winner by the end of the day. People have a way of revealing their spirit at the track and Rebecca’s is strong.
Rebecca’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“PATTT!! Pick Ain’t Life Grand. Fun name.”
In Hindsight: Instead of dwelling on Ain’t Life Grand, who finished seventh behind better horses, it’s important to note that Rebecca has discovered the nature of these guest articles immediately. Legitimate analysis is just as crucial to this website’s success as random hunches. It’s a balance between reason and chaos, two equally important facets of the sport itself. Finding a good name didn’t serve Rebecca well this time around, but the beauty of horse racing is that her opinion was just as legitimate as any expert’s. She’s due.
Rob Patterson
In his first trip to Saratoga a few weeks ago, Rob’s attitude was drastically different from those of his mother and sister. While my Aunt Denice was energetic from start to finish and Rebecca persevered despite a number of frustrations, Rob built up to a sort of frenzy as the day progressed. Before the day began, he placed bets for every race with the expectation of spending the next six hours lazily watching some horses run around. By the fifth race, he began looking at the Form in earnest, considering pace scenarios and speed figures to find the winner. By the tenth, he was making side bets on hunches and screaming for his picks to give him a little more in the stretch. I had a feeling he’d get into it.
Rob’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“Ain’t Life Grand — 20-1 are good odds, good name, the color blue is cool, and is coming off a win. Fate of the world on the line, Ain’t Life Grand.”
In Hindsight: Good thing the fate of the world wasn’t on the line. But instead of dwelling on Ain’t Life Grand, who finished seventh behind better horses, I’d like to talk about Rob’s band. In addition to acting like a maniac at the racetrack (a good thing, to be clear), Rob also has a number of other talents, including music. His band Junimo Hut has been taking the white-hot Southern Connecticut music scene by storm recently and their bass player needs all the support he can get. Apparently, they often schedule shows without telling him, but whenever he stumbles his way onto that stage, I hear it’s magical. Check ‘em out.
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina’s second trip to Saratoga two weeks ago was far less tumultuous than the first. In 2021, she was left completely inconsolable after missing out on long shot State of Rest in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. Since that day, State of Rest has become a superstar in Europe and Kristina has become a college graduate with a gig at Sloan Kettering. She also lost a few dollars upstate this year, none of which were squandered as painfully as her previous pilgrimage.
Kristina’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“Getting ready for this year’s Travers is making me reminisce on the 2021 Travers, which I watched from the lovely 2460 Hoffman Street apartment with Patrick and Niko, or Nicky Wit Da Numbaz. This year, I’ll be watching from the lovely New Jersey. Sans Patrick [ 🙁 ].
As a betting woman, I’m going with Epicenter on top, followed by Cyberknife and Zandon, not necessarily in that order. I really, really like Cyberknife on the rail because of his performance in the Haskell, so I’m hoping it plays in his favor again. I’m torn on throwing Early Voting out, so maybe I’ll make a last minute switch. This is it for now though.
Screw Chad Brown and happy summer of George. Until next time.”
In Hindsight: Kristina Jellybean-a implied that watching the Travers without me was sad for her, and I have to express similar sentiments. I don’t see that kid enough; she lives in the middle of nowhere and I live on the longest island you’ve ever seen. In the end, tossing last-place finisher Early Voting and taking Epicenter to win was emphatically correct, as was picking Cyberknife and Zandon to fill out the top three. She may have been too busy attending the Haskell to contribute a pick for the race back in July, but Kristina came back sharp for the Travers. Since choosing Tiz the Law to win in 2020, she’s never lost money on the Midsummer Derby.
Niko Konstantellis
You know when adults make plans for a day with the kids, but one thing goes wrong and it ruins the whole event? As I sat in the backseat of Niko’s Mazda SUV while he drove me and Kristina to Monmouth Park for this year’s Haskell Stakes, that thought occurred to me and I couldn’t share it. When we got there and he bought two copies of the wrong racing program for an exorbitant amount of money, I still managed to keep it to myself. Then an unknown hooligan stole one of those programs as well as the commemorative hats given to us upon entering. It was the type of thing that might’ve made my father drive off and never return to Monmouth Park again. But Niko’s 22, not 52, and instead ate a stale pretzel and repeatedly said that he was never coming back. Then Jack Christopher, his favorite horse in training, lost at short odds. It was a tough day.
Niko’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“You’re trying to beat Epicenter and only two horses I think are capable of that are Zandon and Artorius. Epicenter wins but I’d bet an exacta with Epicenter keyed and then Zandon and Artorius.”
In Hindsight: Artorius was a bust and Zandon lost in a photo for second, but Niko did correctly identify Epicenter as the race winner. In 18 contributions on Paddy’s Picks, Niko now has two wins. His most recent victory before Saturday came in the summer of 2020. In another touching epilogue, my father recently bought a gift for Niko: a bright yellow hat from the 2022 Haskell. Maybe things are looking up.
Maddie Sandholm
On a website of guest handicappers growing more and more savvy to the world of horse racing, Madeline Sandholm represents a dying breed. Though she’s learned enough through proximity to understand the sport and make reasonable picks, she continues to cling to the old traditions, arriving at conclusions with low expectations and reckless abandon. Respect, not money, is her currency, and though she may seem flippant and even silly at points in her analysis, she is as deadly serious as any gambler out there. The difference is that she aims to lose.
Maddie’s Pick: 2- Rich Strike
“Do I actually think he’s going to win? No. Do I think it would be really funny if he did? Absolutely. At this point, I’m hoping for another Rich Strike/Epicenter/Zandon finish, because why not? I will be very disappointed if the horses don’t commit to the bit (there’s a horse pun right there, but I won’t bite).”
In Hindsight: Oddly enough, Rich Strike and Zandon did finish in similar positions to the Derby, though they finished in reverse. Unlike the Derby, however, Epicenter was much the best, powering home to win by open lengths. I’m not sure why Maddie expected a trio of horses to conform to her bit, but they clearly didn’t get the memo. They probably don’t even know who she is. If they did, they probably would have been more willing, as her nonsense is easier to put up with than the average person’s nonsense.
Emily Ellis
In a curious development, Emily and I are now running a fantasy football league together. She knows nothing about fantasy football, but unlike Paddy’s Picks, she has vowed to apply herself and win the whole damn thing. She plays my team in Week 1, her first fantasy football matchup ever, and I still have to figure out if I’m going to be a gentleman competitor or a merciless ass when the time comes.
Emily’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“It’s got the optimism and passive sarcasm I respect.”
In Hindsight: Based on her analysis, one might think that Emily would appreciate my day-to-day antics more. And yet, my optimism and passive sarcasm seem lost on her. Very strange. Ain’t Life Grand finished seventh.
Savannah Stewart
After taking Benevengo to win the Haskell, it became immediately clear in her debut that Savannah prefers long shots. As someone who was actually somewhat familiar with horse racing before she met me, she’s already developed some of her own instincts around the game, giving her picks a unique flair in comparison to people who have either been guided or dragged by my hand into this sordid and beautiful equestrian world.
Savannah’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“I’m going with Ain’t Life Grand because i like the shitty-ish odds and the name. I know that’s a lame ass explanation but there it is :)”
In Hindsight: If only she had explained better. Ain’t Life Grand was well-named but the odds were stacked against him as an Iowa-bred far, far from home at Saratoga. He did finish seventh, however, ahead of the reigning Preakness winner Early Voting.
Reeya Vasisht
That’s Reeya with an R.
Reeya’s Pick: 8- Zandon
“Like Brandon with a Z.”
In Hindsight: Wait, what?
Shaily Jani
Shaily just finished an internship at Paramount, where she worked on something related to children’s programming. She said she did a good job too, and we celebrated her success with a pasta and movie night last week. Because she made her pick in the midst of her final week working, I don’t think she was able to give the Travers as much attention as she might have otherwise. She probably just had to trust her gut and do some light googling.
Shaily’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“Based on a combination of trusting my gut and some light googling, I’m going to go with Epicenter here. Seems like a pretty reliable choice, and I think he’ll be the epiCENTER of attention for sure.”
In Hindsight: Bad pun aside, Shaily identified the obvious favorite in the race and cheered him on in spirit as he won with relative ease. After picking Mo Donegal to win the Belmont and Cyberknife to win the Haskell, Shaily has now won three races straight on Paddy’s Picks and shows no signs of slowing down.
Grace Getman
Grace recently began law school at NYU, where she’ll presumably learn to understand bylaws and fine print and terms and conditions and the rest of the monotony all of us overlook as it controls our lives. I think I speak for all my readers when I say that I can’t wait to read analysis from such a brilliant, detail-oriented individual.
Grace’s Pick: 4- Gilded Age
“Gilded Age for sure. All that glitters can be golf. GOLD. Fuck.”
In Hindsight: I’d like to apologize to readers for my guest’s use of inappropriate language. For legal reasons, Grace’s thoughts and opinions are her own and do not reflect the conduct and behavior of this publication’s editorial board. Gilded Age bogeyed in the Travers, finishing fifth at long odds.
Esme Bleecker-Adams
I wonder if Esme’s identity as an educator is challenged in late August. Did it distract her from her Paddy’s Picks duties? Could she not bend her entire will toward picking a horse in the Travers Stakes with the back-to-school grind at the forefront of her consciousness? Or did Summer Esme manage to take one last gasp before the leaves began changing?
Esme’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“Quite honestly, I forgot what happened last time I picked Cyberknife (hyperlink herey) but I just checked and they won so why mess with a good thing, right?”
In Hindsight: Cyberknife didn’t let Esme down completely, going to the lead early and holding on for second in the late stages. Even more important though, Esme actually looked up the result of a horse race, which I can guarantee is something she never thought she would ever do in her life. She may not have won this event, but she’s undoubtedly earned the pride of her Paddy’s Picks editor.
Kreena Vora
Kreena’s horse racing tutelage continues, and the fact that I have to send her the Daily Racing Form for each race sets her apart from most guests on this website. Going into the Travers, she was also in search of her first win as a contributor, one that feels overdue considering her effort.
Kreena’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“I remember Epicenter, Cyberknife, and Rich Strike and out of all of them Epicenter is my favorite.”
In Hindsight: Not bad, kid. In identifying three of the top four finishers and picking Epicenter to win, Kreena achieved a breakthrough in her handicapping journey. Subsequent efforts as a guest will indicate whether this is the start of a winning tradition or merely a flash in the pan.
Corbin Gregg
Ugh, another law school student. In his first days at the Cardozo School of Law, Corbin has been less than enthusiastic about his surroundings, and it’s hard to tell whether he truly is in the lowest depths of hell on 5th Avenue or if he’s simply a little slow to warm up to his new home. The one thing that isn’t in question is his ability to confidently pick racehorses on the basis of vague memories and instinct.
Corbin’s Pick: 2- Rich Strike
“Rich Strike has this in the bag. It’s been months since his unsportsmanlike conduct, and that obviously shook him up in some outings as of late. Rich Strike’s unique running style is going to help him traverse the travers in a much more dignified fashion than his earlier and much more publicized win.”
In Hindsight: Corbin’s objection is sustained by this judge, as Rich Strike’s victory in the Kentucky Derby was highly suspect and fraudulent. The decision by my guest to forgive the Derby long shot proved punishing, however, as Rich Strike ran evenly but failed to make up ground on the leaders while finishing fourth.
Cristine Kalinski
The only two things I know about Cristine is that she’s a worm worker (talented lab researcher studying nervous systems of worms at Columbia University) and an entitled witch (lucky to a darkly magical extent on Paddy’s Picks). Now, I don’t know the ways of the worm, but I do like to think that I know my way around a horse race, and the two of us have found common ground there. But even I’m getting a little freaked out now.
Cristine’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“I’m kinda thinking Cyberknife was somewhat of a long shot the first time (based on what I read in Paddy’s picks) and I don’t know that they’ll get lucky again. Don’t remember anything about Epicenter other than it reminds me of California, and since I’m homesick, I’ll go with it.”
In Hindsight: She can’t be deterred. For those of you keeping track, Cristine has now picked four winners in six tries on Paddy’s Picks, and there’s something at play that neither one of us is fully understanding here. The accuracy is weirding me out and her admission of homesickness makes me sad and guilty about my nearby Long Island residence, so we won’t address it. Instead, I’ll just say that Mark Sloan’s character progression and everything about Lexie almost makes up for how unbelievably bad Ghost Denny is. Almost. Good horse chat.
Gil Russo
As the foremost theater journalist in the world as I perceive it, Gil always provides these articles with a sophisticated edge through rich language, references and wordplay. Her picks don’t always land, but value can come from countless places and she always finds a way.
Gil’s Pick: 4- Gilded Age
“Tempted to go with Ain’t Life Grand, because, in the same vein of logic as picking Happy Jack a few races ago, grand is always good. Or Cyberknife, because I recognize the name from past wins. But I’ve got to go with Gilded Age — glamorous, resplendent, my kind of horse. Of course, “gilded” technically refers to fake gold and splendor… but I’m confident he’ll go for the real gold. And if not, let the record show that I remember Cyberknife winning and have put my support behind him in the past.
In Hindsight: Gilded Age was a long shot and did about as well as he could to finish fifth, but the record will forever show that Gil also showed interest in Cyberknife as well. The Haskell winner came back strong to finish second, and though he wasn’t nearly good enough to challenge Epicenter, he was nevertheless a solid find. A good memory coupled with a hunch is the lifeblood of this sport.
Jill Rice
Jill’s back from Germany! She’s been saying the word “fellow” a lot lately, which I believe is the name of her position at the magazine she’s working for. In a shocking twist, she received instant recognition as a copy editing wunderkind in her new role, and will now hone a new crop of writers into razor-sharp, comma-abiding, God-fearing newspeople.
Jill’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“Okay, so I have actually heard of a few of these. That doesn’t mean I remember if they did well or not. I like the fact that Gilded Age is yellow, just like the Gilded Age itself. Epicenter sounds like he (I think) will be at the center of the pack. Not good when you’re trying to win a race. I’d like to say Ain’t Life Grand will win, I want him to have a grand ole time today. Not much else to do besides have a good time at a horse race, right?”
In Hindsight: A few surprises here. Jill’s choice to look past a sophisticated name like Gilded Age in favor of the more folksy Ain’t Life Grand was unexpected. It wasn’t the shock, however. That came in her evaluation of Epicenter. Jill’s conclusion that his name indicated that he would finish in the middle of the pack represents a complete abandonment of her linguistic roots. Had she considered the Greek and Latin derivations of the name, she would have instead reasoned that Epicenter actually means “above or over the center,” which would have made him appear far more formidable. Sure enough, Epicenter vicied all over the place on Saturday, defying Jill’s poor translation.
Alyssa Macaluso
I haven’t spoken to Alyssa much in recent weeks and therefore don’t have any updates to report. Let’s assume she’s doing well! Maybe we can make some things up. Maybe she’s taken a job as an assistant at Runway, but her boss is super mean in an elegant way. What’s that, she’s also getting married soon in Greece at her mother’s hotel but still doesn’t know who her father is? With all that going on, I don’t know how she finds the time to cook all of the recipes in Julia Child’s cookbook and blog about it.
Alyssa’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“For my first pick, I’m going to have to side with the clear favorite in this race, Epicenter. I’ve been hesitant to choose Epicenter in the past since I’m not terribly fond of his name, yet it does seem to ring true: He’s managed to commandeer the center of attention with his consistent performances and recent win in the Jim Dandy. Given his stellar track record (no pun intended lol), I think this colt has what it takes to win the Travers Stakes.
My underdog pick and personal favorite, however, is Artorius. Not only does he have a name fit for a (warrior) king, but he also is a beautiful dark bay, and I had to choose at least one horse I liked for looks in this race. I think his running style (stalker/closer) is going to help him perform well against other contenders, like Early Voting, who tire and fade in the last stretch. And his trainer also has another horse in the race, which could either speak to incredible confidence and preparation of both horses or rushed training, but it’s too soon to tell.”
In Hindsight: Artorius and Early Voting were both disappointing despite obvious upside, but Alyssa’s only job was to pick a winner. The Jim Dandy proved to be the best prep race for the Travers and Epicenter was a deserving favorite in both events, breaking through after a number of show finishes earlier this year. It’s a breakthrough for Alyssa as well — her first win on Paddy’s Picks.
Asa Brandyberry
Remember when I didn’t have any new info for Alyssa? I’m having a similar issue with Asa, who splits his time fairly well between brilliantly honing his architectural skills and throwing heavy objects as far as he can. Instead of providing anything new, I’ll simply say that as someone who spends most of his time talking about nothing and writing about even less, I have to admit that I respect his Spartan lifestyle.
Asa’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“Cyberknife has been on a good streak if i remember correctly, and while a lot of the names are familiar, they haven’t shown well at the other races, especially when they’ve gone against Cyberknife. So, therefore, my educated guess is trusty Cyberknife.”
In Hindsight: Asa went with what he knew for this race, picking Cyberknife following his Haskell victory in July. I’m not sure if Asa remembered his victory with Early Voting in the Preakness back in May, but it turned out to be for the best either way after that colt finished dead last. Though Epicenter proved stronger than the rest of the field by a considerable margin, Cyberknife still managed to take second and establish himself as the best of the rest.
Jacob Blank
Despite moving in nearly two months ago and recently starting his final stint at Fordham, Jacob still hasn’t hosted me in his new apartment. Before, I thought that it was because he was slow to move in, but now I’m beginning to think that something else is at play. My primary suspicion is that he’s making up his home and is actually living a nomadic lifestyle around the Upper West Side. Every second I don’t see his apartment cements this belief.
Jacob’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“Given Cyberknife’s most recent victory, his success is virtually guaranteed. A shoe-in for sure.”
In Hindsight: The concise analysis of a drifter. Jacob banked on Cyberknife’s previous success to carry him through the Travers, and while that reasoning was enough to earn him second place, Jacob needed more to find Epicenter. He’ll only attain that level of focus when he finds a place to settle once and for all.
Roxanne Cubero
Roxanne’s Houston Astros are one of the few teams in MLB that truly scare me as the Mets continue their magical 2022 season. During a game between the two teams that we both attended at Citi Field, things remained civil as Carlos Carrasco got crushed by Yordan Alvarez and company. I can’t promise that I’ll stay as even-keeled in October.
Roxanne’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife and 4- Gilded Age
“Cyberknife 😭😭 I will never forgive him for what he did to Jack Christopher. I’m between him (even though I am still not over JC’s loss, I still like winners) and Gilded Age (mostly to use Paddy’s Picks as a platform to talk about the Met Gala).
In Hindsight: Regardless of which horse Roxanne ended up picking, she would not have won, as Epicenter proved much the best against both of them. It’s impossible to know how she would have resolved her enthralling choice between “winners” and “the Met Gala,” but she’s ensured that all of my readers will come back next time to find out.
Eddie Harrison
With an apartment near Columbia, Eddie may prove to be an even more important friend for me than he was at Fordham. America’s favorite sailor invited me over following an extremely tedious, nerve-wracking, hopelessly pointless orientation day a few weeks ago and it won’t be the last time I reach out to him in search of a nonsensical way through the week.
Eddie’s Pick: 4- Gilded Age
“Those of you who know me well know that I am all too familiar with losing. My main rooting interests in sport, the Phillies and the Eagles, have shown me almost nothing but loss for my entire life. In my own moderately decorated collegiate sailing career, I finished dead last in a fleet of 15 boats in my final race. It will not surprise any of you that I, even accounting for what horse racing academics in their ivory towers consider to be an “inadequate knowledge of the sport,” have picked the worst of the worst horses in each of my picks this year. Each horse I have picked is an absolute loser, finishing dead last (called “DFL” in the boating industry, but this is a family blog) in both the Haskell and Belmont Stakes and 15th in the Kentucky Derby.
With the weight on my shoulders to finally break through and the feeling of being due for a good pick on my mind, I did the only thing a responsible adult would do: learn. Instead of actually learning whatever nerd science Pat and George are into, I hopped onto Google and looked up “Travers Odds.” I learned that the race is going to be on August 27, which is a lucky number of sorts for me. I also learned that the track is left-handed, just like me. Because I couldn’t be bothered to figure out if high numbers are good or if horse racing is one of those blessed sports where low numbers are good, I decided to go with my favorite number: 4. That’s right, I picked Gilded Age, which has the best (or worst) odds at 30-1. This is also a callback to my previous pick of Golden Glider, which you might remember from Belmont.”
In Hindsight: Steady Eddie showed up for the Travers with eloquent, carefully conceived horse racing analysis, most of which revolved around his sailing career. As a proud nerd scientist, I regret to inform him and his many fans that horses with higher-numbered odds typically have a worse chance of winning. But at least we know he’s left-handed now.
Audrey O’Brien
After picking a horse that wasn’t in the race for the Haskell, Audrey went to great lengths to ensure that she was analyzing the right event this time around. Her analysis was just as concise and instinctual, however.
Audrey’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“Because ain’t that the truth!”
In Hindsight: Audrey’s folksy analysis couldn’t get Ain’t Life Grand in the winner’s circle. But she picked a horse in the race, a massive step forward.
Ryan Heffron
Heff lives in the city now? How long has Heff been in the city? While I was busy getting my feet under me at Columbia, Ryan managed to sneak into New York, past my many guards, find a lease on an apartment and move in. It’s possible he mentioned it to me at some point along the way, but I would much rather treat it as a revelation and take personal offense.
Ryan’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“I’m going to have to go with Ain’t Life Grand. Whether or not he wins doesn’t matter, though I think he will. His name reflects the noble disposition towards the journey of life. We’re not here for the end, we die at the end. We’re here for the race down the track, because that’s when the crowd is at its height and our mind is married to body. Only after the race can we reflect on it all… life doesn’t think about life.”
In Hindsight: Ryan’s existential analysis proved a point regardless of Ain’t Life Grand’s poor performance, and I hope he got the opportunity to watch his runner come down the stretch en route to a seventh-place finish. I hope that provided some semblance of temporary permanence for him.
Ed Jarvis
Eddy’s back. Trigger warning for all you snowflakes out there.
Eddy’s Pick: 7- Early Voting
“Voting late kinda seems to be a liberal thing.”
In Hindsight: Boy, do all you liberals look stupid right now. I feel pretty dumb myself. Unfortunately, Eddy’s truth bomb didn’t pan out, as Early Voting got his doors blown off and finished last by a considerable margin. But if you look at the race backwards and fabricate a bunch of nonsense, it’s almost like he actually won.
Matt Clarkin
Matt found his mojo on Paddy’s Picks immediately and hasn’t looked back. To be clear, that hasn’t resulted in any race victories, but the confidence is really what matters in less experienced guests. I hope he was feeling a big dub here.
Matt’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“Gimme Ain’t Life Grand. Because if you can’t appreciate it then what’s this all even about. I’m feeling a big dub here. But even more, I’m thinking it’s really not gonna be that close. My boy gonna run away with this thing.”
In Hindsight: Matt’s boy didn’t run away with this thing and finished seventh at long odds. Would people think as highly of Joe Namath if he had lost Super Bowl III after guaranteeing victory? Probably not, but there’s always going to be another race for Matt on Paddy’s Picks.
Lucas Ludgate
Lucas visited New York from Texas recently, and the most he could say for his new hometown was that it was unbearably hot. Without an ability to bet, his handicapping has also been sensational lately and should only improve as he continues his state-mandated sabbatical.
Lucas’ Pick: 7- Early Voting
“I like the 7, Early Voting. Only good early speed/wire to wire horse. Could also throw on a 1-6 exacta but my bet would be 7 straight.”
In Hindsight: Lucas’ winner performed terribly, but his exacta landed, as Epicenter and Cyberknife finished first and second to earn him a much-needed symbolic victory. Here’s to hoping our cowboy manages to find some air conditioning until temperatures in Texas hit double digits again around Christmas.
Tyler Zorn
The Mets are firing on all cylinders! Most of my baseball friends are Yankees fans, so it’s been wonderful to rave about the Metropolitans with Tyler on a nearly nightly basis these past few months. We know very little about one another’s personal lives at this moment, but who needs heart-wrenching personal conversations when Jacob deGrom is embarrassing every team he faces?
Tyler’s Pick: 7- Early Voting
“Early Voting has had the highest Beyer rating of any horse in the race. I feel that the familiarity with the track, comfortability with an experienced jockey in Ortiz, and being trained by a vet like Chad Brown will lead the horse to victory.”
In Hindsight: Tyler’s confidence in Early Voting wasn’t necessarily ill-conceived, as he did win the Preakness several months ago. Something was clearly wrong, however, as he faded very badly after suffering a setback early in the race. It’s the sort of thing a handicapper can’t prepare for, but it happens nonetheless.
Derek Rosario
Derek just wrapped up his internship in Boston, and life will presumably carry on for him as it does for us all. Regardless of how he feels he did at work this summer, I can assure that he did his absolute best and is instead focusing on all the things that went wrong. He’s a profoundly talented worrier.
Derek’s Pick: 3- Ain’t Life Grand
“Ain’t Life Grand, Early Voting, Cyberknife. Cause if I get first place wrong I mean we’re still reminded that life is grand. Early Voting, I mean he’s early, c’mon. And I change my pick for third. Chronologically, Gilded Age has to be before Cyberknife.”
In Hindsight: Derek’s top two picks finished second to last and last. But he picked them in the right order! Meanwhile, picking Gilded Age with chronology in mind made this editor chuckle, which has to be worth something. Not as a bet or anything. Worth something as a vibe, ya know?
Mia Agostinelli
I saw Mia for the first time in nearly a year last weekend on a group trip to Coney Island. For someone who has consistently asked me about the process with Columbia from the day I applied to my first class, the least I can give in return is the occasional opportunity to pick a horse. I really do the most for the people around me, huh?
Mia’s Pick: 7- Early Voting
“Early Voting never fails (except maybe in this case).”
In Hindsight: Early Voting failed spectacularly in this case, though that wasn’t Mia’s fault and didn’t seem to be the horse’s either. These things happen.
Christian Madlansacay
Christian tends to make his picks on vibes alone and usually keeps it short. He also has a knack for picking hopeless runners, but I’ve been feeling a slightly more competitive edge lately.
Christian’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“Cyberknife because the name gives me huge science fiction vibes, which is my favorite genre.”
In Hindsight: Cyberknife does indeed give huge science fiction vibes, and the colt’s talent far exceeded many of Christian’s picks earlier this year and finished second. In all honesty, Christian’s unflinchingly chaotic strategy makes him one of the least likely guests to ever pick a winner. But picking always gives him a chance.
Clara Gerlach
After I watched the first two episodes of “Rings of Power,” I promised Clara that I would let her know what I thought. I figured that it would be best to update her now. It’s a wonderful feeling to be back in Middle Earth, so to speak, and I think the groundwork is there for something really cool. Interactions between Elrond and Durin have been my favorite part by far at this point, but I’m very curious how the series builds to what I know to be utter calamity for most of the characters involved. Good stuff.
Clara’s Pick: 6- Epicenter
“Okay, so first thought is that Cyberknife will win, since he won last time, but I’m also aware that that doesn’t always happen? Then Ain’t Life Grand has a good vibe but does the horse work to live… or live to work? It’s a little hard to figure that out through just a name. I think ultimately I’ll say Epicenter because Rich Strike has burned me before.”
In Hindsight: Well, Clara chose an interesting strategy by mentioning half of the horses in the race, but it worked! She landed on Epicenter, who ran his race and won in a powerful showing. In fact, of the four she showed interest in, only one of the quartet finished outside the top four finishers. Clara’s on her way here.
Gabby Bermudez
No Paddy’s Picks guest is more excited to be a Paddy’s Picks guest than this Paddy’s Picks guest. In fact, with a vague feeling that these words I’m writing will soon appear in an Instagram story, Gabby actually applies pressure for me to stay sharp as I sift through thousands of words of guest analysis. It’s necessary to reward this sort of enthusiasm.
Gabby’s Pick: 5- Artorius
“Okay I’m going to go with Artorius. With a name like that you gotta be successful. Also because CBS Sports said ‘Why Artorius is the one to watch on Saturday.’ I’m not going to read the article, but if the headline speaks on the potential success of this horse, I’m rooting for this guy.”
In Hindsight: Artorius was indeed the one to watch in the Travers, as he was relatively unknown and entered with precocious form. He didn’t show up, however, and finished a disappointing sixth behind more well known competitors. He could certainly still go on to have a solid career, but his most recent effort at Saratoga wasn’t his best.
Chris Murray
Get a load of this. Chris tagged along on a double date trip to Saratoga with me, Niko and Kristina a few weeks ago. It was romantic and all, sure, but more importantly, there was a chess board in the house we rented for the weekend and he asked me to play. Is this kid for real? For an entire year at Fordham in the Bronx, I asked everyone I knew if they wanted to play chess and Chris never offered to play once. I didn’t even know he knew the rules — sometimes, I’m not convinced he understands basic human behavior. But there he was in Saratoga, moving the pieces around correctly and resigning before checkmate like a pro. What gives?
Chris’ Pick: 8- Zandon
“Zandon is gonna win Race 11. I have a good feeling about him with Cyberknife and that other favorite getting all the attention.”
In Hindsight: Zandon didn’t win Race 11, but Chris’ confidence wasn’t entirely misplaced, as he and Cyberknife both ran well to finish in the money. If he could have remembered Epicenter’s name, he might’ve really been on to something here.
Aurelien Clavaud
Aurelien was in France this summer. He’s no longer in France. I think I speak for everyone when I say that it’s pretty neat to have him back stateside.
Aurelien’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“Cyberknife is the coolest name out there, so he gets 2/3 of my money but Epicenter seems a safer bet, so I’ll put the rest on him.”
In Hindsight: This is difficult to assess. Aurelien was ⅓ of the way to being correct, but the rest of him seemed firmly behind Cyberknife. I suppose I’ll leave it to readers to decide whether or not his analysis could have led him to a profit.
Maggie McNamara
Maggie continues to send me Lightning McQueen memes without providing any information about her personal life. It’s a chaotic choice to maintain a friendship this way, but I’m obviously still on board. Kachow.
Maggie’s Pick: 2- Rich Strike
“Ngl this group feels pretty mid… I guess imma stick with my guy Rich Strike because I think he did me well last time, if memory serves. Second pick I guess I’ll go with Artorius since that kind of is a sick name but I do not expect spectacular or even slightly above average performances from any of these horses.”
In Hindsight: First, apologies for providing such a mid group of horses. Maggie’s assessment of Artorius was actually spot on, as he did enter with high expectations but didn’t meet them. Meanwhile, Rich Strike failed to replicate his shocking upset victory earlier this year and finished fourth. Ngl, kind of a Chick Hicks showing from Maggie this time around.
Nicole Kraemer
Nicole’s in California now, presumably doing that thing where she’s super peppy but also somehow snappy at the same time. She also typed out her own analysis this time around, saving me the trouble of transcribing her words and editing her in a favorable light. They’re fast learners at Disney.
Nicole’s Pick: 4- Gilded Age
“I actually dislike all of these names so I’m going with Gilded Age because I dislike his name least.”
In Hindsight: Nicole would admit that her analysis this time around lacked conviction, so it makes sense that Gilded Age finished fifth without ever challenging for the lead. I’ll try to find some more interesting names to better engage her next time.
Owen Roche
I’m not really sure how to introduce this. If this text doesn’t change, it means I gave up trying.
Owen’s Pick: 1- Cyberknife
“They say you always remember your first.
Kisses, mustache hairs, true loves and apartments – our first brushes with the unknown remain in all their stubborn, cloying glory on the edges of consciousness. Every day, they quietly shape who we are and what we become; our past a potter at the wheel of our present, teasing form from the malleable mass of what will be.
Sometimes, we try to forget our firsts. Other times, we cannot help but remember, for better or worse. Sights, sounds, smells, voices, sensations, faces and emotions bring us back to where it all began. We laugh, we bear witness to our path of growth and change; our eyes crinkle and shimmer.
It’s my two-year Paddyversary, and I’ll cry if I want to.
My first entry to Paddy’s Picks opined on the 2020 Travers Stakes. The flippant and frankly purple prose, prefaced by preposterous praise from Mr. Picks himself, had its top selection place second on race day – akin to getting the answer half-correct with the wrong formula, a broken calculator and two crayons up the nose.
It’s all been downhill from there.
Nevertheless, here we are: It’s Travin’ Time once again, and I’ve got your winner singled out. This time, I’ve utilized the proven sports phenomenon of “due.”
What is “due?” It’s an intangible gut feeling that anyone’s sustained performance, good or bad, cannot last. Aaron Judge went 0 for his last 15? He’s due. Dr. Oz hasn’t embarrassed himself completely unprovoked on the campaign trail for a whole week? He’s due.
Epicenter’s been blowing the everloving doors off of the entire competition for almost a year now? Oh boy, is he overdue. Rest assured – for that pony boy, nothing gold can stay.
Cyberknife is unfathomably and disgustingly due after placing 18th to Epicenter’s 2nd and Zandon’s 3rd in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Now, he’ll get his deserved and inevitable change of luck. You watch – he’ll get his due.”
In Hindsight: A man can become so absorbed reminiscing on years savored and years lost that he nearly forgets to mention a horse in 300 longing words. Cyberknife finished second and “Paddyversary” is a banned word until further notice.