On Oct. 1, I asked far too many people to pick the winner of the 2022 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. I was sick at the time and looked forward to weeks of productivity after my health improved. A Paddy’s Picks guest article felt like light work.
I remained extremely ill for another four days in October and didn’t fully recover for another week. Shortly after I returned to class, my most important source for a big assignment at Columbia canceled on me, forcing me to ditch a month’s worth of research and start over one week before my deadline. To be candid, at around the same time, I fell back into a bit of a slump in terms of mental health, something I can be candid about with my dear readers without fully addressing on this horse racing website. While that was going on, the Mets lost to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card and I had to put on a brave face after Game 3 while a room full of anti-Met fans berated me without fully understanding the rules of baseball.
So this article is late.
The good thing is that I’m feeling much better now and it feels like it’s going to stay that way for awhile, and it led directly to a very quick turnaround on this article that was due weeks ago.
For those somehow unfamiliar with this format, I asked my guests, some knowledgeable and some not, to select a horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. This race is very different from the American three-year-old races on dirt that they’ve been playing all year on this site. With a long gap between the Travers Stakes and Breeders’ Cup, I wanted to give my loyal contributors a challenge, and there’s nothing tougher than picking between 20 European horses on turf.
Along with the full order of finish below, each guest had the opportunity to provide an explanation for their pick, and I’ve included an introduction for each as well as a critique of their selections in hindsight. My analysis of them is as serious or silly as they deserve.
Once again, sincere apologies for the delay in publishing. Allons enfants de la Patrie, le jour de gloire est arrivé. Let’s look at some horses.
Longchamp (Fr), Race 4
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
Post Time: 10:05 a.m. EST
Full Order of Finish:
1- Alpinista (GB) (14)
2- Vadeni (Fr) (15)
3- Torquator Tasso (GER) (2)
4- Al Hakeem (GB) (16)
5- Grand Glory (GB) (13)
6- Westover (GB) (18)
7- Luxembourg (Ire) (20)
8- Broome (Ire) (7)
9- Alenquer (Fr) (5)
10- Onesto (Ire) (17)
11- Titleholder (Jpn) (11)
12- Mendocino (GER) (10)
13- Mishriff (Ire) (1)
14- Stay Foolish (Jpn) (8)
15- Mare Australis (Ire) (3)
16- Sealiway (Fr) (4)
17- Bubble Gift (Fr) (12)
18- Deep Bond (Jpn) (6)
19- Do Deuce (Jpn) (19)
20- Mostahdef (Ire) (9)
Emma Moquin
Don’t look now, but Emma’s been killing it at Penn State lately. She’s hosting football watch parties, she’s thriving as a TA and helping with groundbreaking research in State College. I’ll be seeing her soon for her birthday, which will also mark the weekend of my first Nittany Lion football game. Do I have to make my own shiv or can I barter for one when I get there?
Emma’s Pick: 17- Onesto (Ire)
“Here I like Onesto for two reasons. Firstly, his last showing at an Irish race was extremely impressive. Second, I love him at these odds, as I hate to pick the favorite. European forms are (as usual) a complete nightmare and so from what I can gather, this horse is a bit of a sneaky contender. We will see what happens because all these horses have a chance of winning here today. Happy betting!”
In Hindsight: While many of the most experienced guest handicappers on Paddy’s Picks, like Niko Konstantellis, Kristina Stevanovic and George McKnight, shied away from this race, Emma fully embraced it and all its complexities. After spending nearly an hour doing analysis over FaceTime, the two of us eventually landed on the same horse. Onesto disappointed in a tenth-place finish, but I can never fault someone for defeat resulting from courage.
Denice Patterson
My Aunt Denice remains enthusiastic about horse racing several months after her excursion to Saratoga, and with the Breeders’ Cup coming up in November, I’m already concocting fun schemes for her as a Paddy’s Picks contributor. Finding long shot Tommy the Torch upstate marked an excellent debut, but I believe she can provide even more on bigger stages. I’ll keep thinking.
Aunt Denice’s Pick: 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“Looking at the list of names, I automatically went to Luxembourg. I have family roots from there. When I look at the stats, I see this horse is a favorite. So, Luxembourg is my number one. I usually like going for bigger odds so my second is Grand Glory.”
In Hindsight: Despite analyzing complex European racing statistics, Aunt Denice made a very solid showing and even managed to find one of the favorites in this race. Though Luxembourg disappointed in 7th, not all is lost, as her long shot, the mare Grand Glory, far outran her odds to finish fifth. She and I both lost, but we look forward to the next race anyway, always slightly wiser than the last while feeling more foolish.
Rebecca Patterson
After toiling away at this for some time, Rebecca has slowly gained a footing as a highly respectable novice on this site. I doubt she’d label herself as such, but her humility merely conceals a budding talent. Case in point…
Rebecca’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB)
“She’s come in first multiple times and her odds look pretty good.”
In Hindsight: Now that’s how it’s done! Sometimes, it doesn’t get much more complicated than picking the repeat winner. Alpinista has been undefeated for the better part of two years, and though the Arc was a step up for her, she handled it with ease to win as a deserving favorite. Rebecca’s victory in a profoundly difficult race deserves high, high praise.
Lucas Ludgate
Unlike George, Niko and other cowards, Lucas joined my sister as a brave Paddy’s Picks veteran willing to take a chance on the unknown. He didn’t understand the French racing statistics I gave him, but he tried, and it’s the effort that we have to respect as handicappers. Before anyone begins to think that I admire Lucas or consider him redeeming in any way, however, I’d like to remind readers that while we were in high school together, I once settled a $20 bet with him in nickels, and he proceeded to put those nickels in a sock and strike me in the back of the knee the following day.
Lucas’ Pick: 11- Titleholder (Jpn)
“The pick is Titleholder. Flying by the seat of my pants on this one but I was swayed by the hubris in the name.”
In Hindsight: Titleholder was an extremely interesting horse in this race, a front-running Japanese runner competing against some late-closing Europeans. Unfortunately, the colt couldn’t maintain his lead in the stretch and faded to 11th. Lucas should find more familiar ground in the Breeders’ Cup next month, an event in which he has found massive winners in previous years.
Eddy Jarvis
I don’t have any new information on Eddy, but as far as I know, he’s in Massachusetts playing baseball and at least one of his legs works alright. To take up his entire introduction with a story about me, I beat him in dodgeball once in high school because I accidentally threw, without exaggeration, the greatest 12-6 curve I’ve ever seen. I swear, this thing started at his head and somehow hit him on the thigh — once-in-a-lifetime shot. I think I hit Gabe Keane on the ass next to win it.
Eddy’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso (GER)
“Torquator Tasso. I like the name alliteration and you never bet against a German in France.”
In Hindsight: I’m glad Eddy’s realizing that these guest articles are really just an opportunity for him to drop one-liners. The clever, vaguely pro-Nazi sentiment here turned out to pay dividends, as Torquator Tasso closed very well to finish third ahead of a fleet of British, Irish and French runners.
Derek Rosario
Every time I ask him to do this, Derek requests the statistics for the race before realizing that he has no recollection of how to read the statistics. This led to a real rollercoaster this time around, as the French stats were especially incoherent to him. I have to admit that he recovered gracefully.
Derek’s Pick: 11- Titleholder (Jpn), 14- Alpinista (GB) and 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“If I really wanted to get into it i’d probably just have to study each horse’s performance on each given race 😭 to get a sense of the kind of performance they’d give tomorrow taking things like turf type, race length, and jockey/horse pace in mind but I don’t have it in me to before the races tmm.”
In Hindsight: Once he figured out how odds worked for the third or fourth time in his life, Derek had an easy time covering his bets and picking three of the top options in the field. Two of these runners disappointed, but Alpinista did exactly what she was supposed to do, winning the event as the favorite in impressive fashion. Does this somewhat lazy and indecisive analysis deserve credit as a winning effort?
Tyler Zorn
Allow this to be the lament for my beloved New York Metropolitans. For the past three months, Tyler and I have remained in contact solely through conversations about the Mets. There was so much to look forward to until there wasn’t. We haven’t spoken since Joe Musgrove one-hit our team and ended our 101-win season in the Wild Card round. The failures in Queens are tearing friendships apart before our very eyes.
Tyler’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso (GER)
“Not sure if I made the deadline but I promise I haven’t looked at the results.
I was going to say I like either Luxembourg or Torquator Tasso. It was tough with no Beyer score, I’m assuming PP may have been the replacement?
Both horses have run very well recently, and have demonstrated consistent top finishes. Indulging against other horses in the race…and for Torquator winning at the same track.”
In Hindsight: For someone who didn’t even pretend to understand the French racing stats, Tyler did a very good job narrowing this race down to two worthy runners. Luxembourg turned out to be a disappointment, but Torquator Tasso nearly repeated his Arc win last year and powered home to finish third. When I send him this article, hopefully he’s calm enough to tell me who Cohen and Eppler should sign in the off-season.
Hugh Esterson
Just as a reminder, Hugh Esterson is a 22-year-old semi-retired racing driver working in consulting in New York City. He returned home from Europe several months ago after assisting his brother at a number of tracks overseas. Some of these details will prove to be crucial context for whatever the hell he’s talking about in his explanation, while other details just help with the general vibe.
Hugh’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB)
“Alpinista — I like the name and she looks to be the favorite. Guessing the name alludes to her as some sort of Alpine traveler. And reminds me of Alpinestars, my favorite racing brand. I am wearing some Alpinestars shoes on my sim as we speak, so it just feels right.”
In Hindsight: When Hugh buys Alpinestars shoes, I hope he goes for the 2022 Tech-1 Z V2. Supermonos are for chumps. In any case, Hugh’s recent trip across the pond seems to have paid off, as Alpinista was indeed the pick in this massive field of European runners. After picking Cyberknife to win the Haskell Stakes in August, this is his second straight win as a Paddy’s Picks contributor.
Matt Clarkin
For those of you tracking Paddy’s Picks for Matt’s character arc, I regret to inform you all that he’s still firmly in the vibe phase as a contributor. But hey, sometimes it doesn’t take much…
Matt’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB)
“Alpinista. Rip the queen. Nuff said.”
In Hindsight: I didn’t have Matt pegged as a loyalist, but it sure helped him here. His imperialistic sympathies led him to his first winner as a guest on Paddy’s Picks — in arguably the most difficult race he’s ever had to analyze. Top marks, lad.
Chris Murray
He would never admit it, and none of you can tell him this, but I think Chris is getting a little desperate for a winner at this point in his Paddy’s Picks career. It was therefore a little mean for me to give him this race, featuring 20 horses he’s never heard of and statistics he doesn’t understand. Let’s see how he did.
Chris’ Pick: 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“Based on vibes alone, I’m going with Luxembourg. I’m unfamiliar with most of the trainers and horses from this race so I arbitrarily chose a horse with good vibes.”
In Hindsight: Oddly enough, Chris actually managed to find one of the favorites in the Arc, as Luxembourg was entering the event with a big win in the Irish Champion Stakes. Unfortunately, his form didn’t transition well to French turf and he finished evenly in 7th. Chris is still searching for his first winner after 11 attempts.
Maddie Sandholm
Did I ever mention that Maddie got me a miniature glass horse for my birthday this year? It’s this little glass horse tinged with burnt orange in its mane and lower body, but when I took it out of the box for the first time, I discovered that one of its legs had already chipped off. I liked it so much that I didn’t tell her, and it’s been wrapped in tissue paper in the same little red box in my night stand since. I’m afraid it’s going to lose all its legs if I take it out again. And then it’ll be, like, noticeably slower.
Maddie’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“Stay Foolish. Is that a catchphrase? A motto? A command?? Regardless, I’m more than happy to follow along and continue being silly, especially if it means I don’t have to think. I don’t have an explanation as to why this horse is gonna win, but the name is really speaking to me right now so I’m fully in support of this horse.”
In Hindsight: Anyone following along with Maddie’s picks over the years shouldn’t be stunned that Stay Foolish plodded home to finish 14th. But the key to her analysis lately is that she’s been entering into these weird agreements with the horses, like they’re communicating with one another. It’s not helping at all (she’s 0-for-13 lifetime), but I hope she’s getting a kick out of it.
Shaily Jani
Shaily came into her Arc analysis with three straight victories in premier American horse races, picking the winners of the Belmont, Haskell and Travers Stakes over the summer. Can she bring her talents to Europe? What are we thinkin’ Sailor?
Shaily’s Pick: 17- Onesto (Ire)
“What I’m thinkin’: Onesto is the one(sto) for me! I think he’ll put up a good fight tomorrow. After some more light googling it seems close but also it might not be close because idk what I’m talking about. I have a good feelin tho.”
In Hindsight: Onesto was certainly a contender, but Shaily’s light googling finally failed her, as the Irish-bred was one of several from the country that disappointed in this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. She’ll have a chance to recover when I figure out which brand of nonsense I want her involved in for the Breeders’ Cup next month.
Emily Ellis
For several years now, Emily’s been on the hunt for a winner on Paddy’s Picks. What she fails to understand, however, is that hunting takes time as well as luck and talent. You can have all the skill and good fortune in the world, but if you’re not willing to head into the woods for a week, you’ll never know what goes on in there.
Emily’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“I had my car read this out to me as I drove to the beach and it all sounded like gibberish since it read out the abbreviations too. The only one I could hear clearly was Stay Foolish and it made me laugh.”
In Hindsight: To clarify, when I sent my guests the horses for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, I also included their countries of origin in parentheses. So when Emily had the car read the names out loud, I can understand why she might have had trouble parsing through all 20. Stay Foolish finished 14th.
Reeya Vasisht
Reeya is a woman of few words, but even for her, this felt a little rude.
Reeya’s Pick: 16- Al Hakeem (GB)
When asked for her reasoning, Ms. Vasisht sent an audio message emphatically denying my request for further comment.
In Hindsight: Al Hakeem outran his long odds and finished fourth. It was a good showing.
Maryam Beshara
Maryam has repeatedly told me that she loves the Irish, to the point that I’m almost certain she’s being sarcastic. Nevertheless, the Arc was definitely up her alley, with plenty of horses from the Emerald Isle entering the starting gate with serious winning chances.
Maryam’s Pick: 7- Broome (Ire)
“Broome — I sent my friend Kate from Barnard a list of all the Irish horses in this race because for one of the Paddy’s Picks I participated in, I believe it was two races ago, she told me to pick Mo Donegal because of the Irish name and I ended up picking a different horse instead. Kate is currently in Atlanta visiting our friend Ilakiya who moved for college and Ilakiya was next to her when I sent the list — Ilakiya chose Broome and her reasoning was ‘Broome stick like the horse tail.’ My other pick from the Irish was going to be Mostahdaf which sounds like the Arabic word ‘Mostafez’ meaning getting under someone’s nerves but I think Broome will be a good pick for the race. Let’s hope these girls don’t fail me.”
In Hindsight: Broome was a massive long shot and ran slightly better than many expected him to, finishing eighth. More importantly, however, Paddy’s Picks would like to formally welcome Kate from Barnard to the website, as her unauthorized cameo was a wonderful surprise. I don’t know Ilakiya at all, but she’s certainly welcome as well. It’s a good thing they persuaded Maryam to abandon Mostahdef, who finished dead last.
Christian Madlansacay
Christian projects a sort of positivity in his Paddy’s Picks analysis that’s frankly very infectious. It’s so optimistic and wholesome that I sometimes can’t bring myself to mercilessly roast the hopeless loser horses he picks. Let’s see where I land today.
Christian’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“Stay Foolish because it reminds me of the silly goofy mood I’ve been in lately.”
In Hindsight: Alright, he’s been in a silly, goofy mood lately. That means one of at most three things for Christian, and the new Black Panther doesn’t come out until next month. Therefore, I’ll take it easy and commend him on his foolish selection. I hope he continues to pick with his heart until the end of time.
Savannah Stewart
Savannah’s birthday occurred earlier this month and I was fortunate enough to receive an invite to a whimsical picnic to celebrate. I didn’t dress whimsically because I’m a stick in the mud, but it was nevertheless a wonderful event, certainly one worth RSVPing to. I’m not sure if an invite to Aqueduct Racetrack is truly an equivalent gesture, but I’ll do what I can.
Savannah’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso (GER)
“So I think I like Torquator Tasso in first if not beaten out by Mendocino and I feel like I wanna throw Stay Foolish in there to see how he would do because he’s 7 and that would be funny.”
In Hindsight: Of the three horses she was between, Savannah eventually landed on the highest finisher, as Torquator Tasso ran very well to finish third. It’s her best result by far as a contributor on Paddy’s Picks and could represent a promising future as the end of the 2022 season nears.
Brianna Doucette
Brianna is making her debut on Paddy’s Picks, as the two of us have bonded enough over fantasy football for me to begin bothering her about making inane horse racing predictions. There are many, many ways to get trapped in my nonsensical labyrinth of time-consuming hobbies, but there’s no way out.
Brianna’s Pick: 12- Bubble Gift (Fr)
“I believe Bubble Gift is going to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It benefits from being accustomed to the French climate and conditions. Furthermore, it has a name becoming of a victor.”
In Hindsight: Brianna’s early success in fantasy has not immediately transferred over to racing analysis, as Bubble Gift showed very little in the Arc and finished 17th. That being said, there are always other races to play, and if she’s already considering French weather patterns in her contributions, it’s safe to assume that she’ll be getting invited back to the website soon.
Allie Stofer
Allie has discovered that the best way to get me to travel to the West Coast is to entice me with a trip to the racetrack, and has offered to take me to Emerald Downs in Washington on several occasions since she went over the summer. I’ll admit that it’s the closest I’ve ever come to considering a trip to the wrong side of the country, but on the other hand, it’s still very far away.
Allie’s Pick: 12- Bubble Gift (Fr)
“Bubble Gift — fun fact, you can’t say the word bubble angrily. So therefore, Bubble Gift is always happy and happy horse, happy life. And happy people always win.”
In Hindsight: I guess the other horses were significantly happier, because Bubble Gift entered the race as a long shot and ran like one, finishing 17th. Thanks for the fun fact though, Allie.
Clara Gerlach
Clara has been in Florida for several months now, and her planned trip back to New York in early November is the one weekend I’ll be leaving to see my sister in Pennsylvania. I suspect that this was an intentional move on her part.
Clara’s Pick: 18- Westover (GB)
“Okay, I’m going with Westover because one of my favorite non fiction books was written by Tara Westover. But I would like to suggest that these rich Europeans use their money to buy some humor. Japan is on the right track, Stay Foolish is a cooler name.”
In Hindsight: Westover finished sixth, not bad for a contender, but there are more pressing matters to attend to. I just finished the first season of Rings of Power and I have to say that the last two episodes finally got me to buy in. I thought the Elvish plotline was annoying, but the Hobbits’ experience with the Stranger and Durin’s struggles in Khazad-dûm fell perfectly into line with other Middle Earth adaptations. I can’t wait for Season 2 to come out after I graduate from Columbia.
Eddie Harrison
Eddie found himself at a harness racing event in Saratoga Springs a few weeks ago and bet on a horse named Horsche. End of introduction.
Eddie’s Pick: 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“I pick Luxembourg, the Irish horse, because it simply makes no sense. A French race, an Irish horse, and Luxembourg. Clearly this team is only focusing on the finest details of horse racing, because they do not know anything about geography.”
In Hindsight: Eddie is correct that Luxembourg is a peculiar name for an Irish horse, but he was wrong to pick him as the winner, as he went off as one of the race favorites but only finished 7th. Go Birds. Go Horsche.
Ryan Heffron
Ryan is one of this website’s few deep thinkers, as his analysis is typically brief but attempts to reach out at some profound thought. When we were neighbors at Fordham, he invited me to meditate with him on two occasions. The first time, I felt like I was waiting for my bus for a half hour. The second time, I have to admit that I felt somewhat calmer afterwards.
Ryan’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“Gotta go with Stay Foolish. Only a fool can fully enjoy the absurdity of life.”
In Hindsight: There he is. Stay Foolish didn’t come close to winning the Arc, but that clearly wasn’t the aim here. Ryan’s point is well-taken and even agreed upon by some of the other contributors in this article, though no one could ever make the point as concisely. Usually I’d make some sort of counterpoint for fun to get his mind racing, but I’m on a tight deadline here.
Tony Kraus
This is an odd thought, but if telegrams were still a thing, I think Tony and I would be in touch more often. Our text conversations are sparse and extremely efficient, and the response rate can be days or even weeks. If all friendships were charged by the word, we’d have a spectacular system going.
Tony’s Pick: 11- Titleholder (Jpn)
“I like Titleholder. I’m not sure what title he holds or how he earned it but I think having to live with that kind of pressure his entire life will have forged him into a stronger man.”
In Hindsight: “It is not titles that honor men, but men that honor titles.” Tony’s selection entered the Arc as the best turf runner in Japan, but his front running style didn’t seem to mesh well with the softer French grass and he finished 11th. After picking Cyberknife to take the 2022 Haskell, Tony’s one-race winning streak comes to a screeching halt.
Audrey O’Brien
If I had to guess, Audrey’s probably doing alright. I haven’t checked in with her at all — I just ask her about horse racing every few weeks — but based on her recent contributions, it seems like she’s pretty chipper. Coming off a vacation to Europe over the summer, one has to assume that she had a noticeable edge analyzing the Arc.
Audrey’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso (GER)
“Per my research, Torquator Tasso caused a large upset last year when he beat leading horses and won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Plus he has a special postage stamp in Germany which is so cute.”
In Hindsight: Per her research? As a reminder to forgetful fans at home, Audrey has previously picked horses to win races that they weren’t in. This dramatic improvement in analysis quality is massively appreciated in one way, but in another way, I do miss the unhinged, radioactive contributions I’ve received from her in the past. Torquator Tasso did run nearly well enough to become a repeat Arc winner, closing nicely down the center of the track before settling for third. It’s also true that his postage stamp is very cute.
Nicole Kraemer
As a Disney employee in California, Nicole recently worked on Wheel of Fortune and informed me that those in the know simply refer to it as “Wheel.” I find it much funnier to say “The Wheel,” but she disagreed. The worst part of her time on The Wheel was getting accosted by an indeterminate number of biting spiders, and despite its cool and casual vibe, she didn’t meet a single cute surfer dude on The Wheel either. The Wheel.
Nicole’s Pick: 10- Mendocino (GER)
“10 because it’s one of my favorite numbers and Mendocino Farms is one of my favorite places to eat in LA.”
In Hindsight: I’m going to need a definitive ranking of Nicole’s favorite numbers at some point, but in this case, 10 didn’t provide much luck for her, as Mendocino struggled throughout and finished flatly in 12th. I have no interest in ever traveling to Los Angeles and therefore have no comment about her favorite place to eat there.
Gabby Etzel
Gabby extended an offer to be pen pals back in August and I didn’t send my first letter until mid-October. In my defense, she was visiting New Orleans and Quebec for most of the time in between, so I didn’t see the point in mailing something that she wouldn’t see for weeks. Also in my defense, I just learned how to mail things and it took awhile to figure out.
Gabby’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“I think it’s important to look at the bigger picture, so I’m manifesting a win for Stay Foolish. I want all the little horse race lover children to repeatedly hear “Stay Foolish” in post-race discussions. Since people will be discussing Stay Foolish in a positive light (winner), the little children’s little unconscious minds will come to see foolishness as a good thing. Through subliminal messaging, they will grow up to be foolish, and they will stay foolish. In twenty years, we’ll all be like, “Why are all these people so foolish?” It’s because of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in August of 2022. That’s a fun reason, I think. Wait, it’s not August.”
In Hindsight: First of all, even though the race occurred several weeks ago, it still wasn’t close to August. More importantly though, Gabby’s reality-bending analysis was undoubtedly well-intentioned, but it seems to have had an adverse effect on her ill-fated steed, who finished 14th at long odds. The long-term effects of his performance will not be known for some time.
Gabriella Bermudez
Huge shoutout to all of Gabby’s followers on Instagram! I wonder if I’m making the public story this time around. I was hoping to get this article out before Gabby’s birthday last weekend, but my inability to remember birthdays was stronger than my desire to celebrate with her. None of this should detract from her effort to analyze the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, however, which was brilliant and enthusiastic in equal measure. It’s shocking that she can write so well at the age of 11.
Gabby’s Pick: 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“I’m voting for Luxembourg!
As someone who has studied horse betting rules intensely (three whole minutes), I considered the odds of every horse in the lineup. Now, as someone with a deep knowledge of odds, I know that the big numbers are bad. So I picked Luxembourg because this horse has a 7-2. Which is good, obviously.
But I also have a good feeling about Westover. I have no reason to think this horse will do well, the vibes are just good with this one.”
In Hindsight: Big numbers, bad. Good work. Luxembourg certainly entered the race as a formidable favorite but ultimately fell short in a seventh-place finish. Westover’s odds were slightly higher, but Gabby’s feeling was correct, as he actually outfinished Luxembourg in sixth. If I were to give advice, perhaps Gabby should try to synthesize her knowledge of odds with her natural intuition next time. Maybe break out the tarot cards.
Aurelien Clavaud
As a Frenchman like myself, I thought Aurelien would have a distinct advantage in the Arc, as his familiarity with the terrain would obviously be unparalleled amid his uncultured American counterparts. He’s frolicked in those fields — he knows the feeling of the Parisian wind in his long, flowing locks. Picking a winner at Longchamp should be second nature.
Aurelien’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB) and 17- Onesto (Ire)
“As usual I’ll split my bet. I’m going with 3/5 of my money in Onesto, and then 2/5 on Alpinista. I’ve read about Onesto being a good pick and also Luxembourg but I gotta pick one. Alpinista has good odds too. But you know, if I had an extra dollar I’d put it on Titleholder because what kinda horse named title holder doesn’t win. I know I don’t know how any of the betting works but to me it’s conceptual.”
In Hindsight: Though most of Aurelien’s money went to Onesto, a contender who finished 10th, he did mention a partial wager on Alpinista that would have resulted in a very small profit. Though I look forward to more conviction from him in the future, the victory is his today, the first for the French in some time.
Maggie McNamara
When Maggie was given the field for the Arc, she blew me away by remembering Sealiway, a horse she previously analyzed in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It wasn’t a memory I thought she would have any chance of recalling, but then again, I forget that our friendship sometimes extends beyond random Cars trivia. Sometimes it involves horses.
Maggie’s Pick: 7- Broome (Ire)
“Ok so I traditionally make my picks based on the name of the horse, and I will be mostly sticking to that for this race. However, I do feel compelled to pick an Irish horse given my own personal roots, and, on the whole, the Irish horses do not appear to have great names. The only exception to this is Broome, who I believe will win because this invokes witches which have both speed and proximity to Halloween currently on their side. I also like the addition of an e to the name. Beyond that, I think all the Japanese horses (especially Do Deuce and Stay Foolish) will do very well on the whole.”
In Hindsight: Broome was certainly the festive pick and is only more relevant now that I’ve waited forever to publish this piece. Unfortunately, the Irish-bred let Ms. McNamara down, finishing eighth at long odds. Maggie remains winless on Paddy’s Picks in six attempts, but more consistent appearances in recent months are sure to lead to improvement.
Katrina Lambert
Believe it or not, this is not Katrina’s debut on Paddy’s Picks, as my former Editor in Chief at The Observer actually made a brief appearance on the site for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Since then, Katrina has discovered a single Tweet about horse racing, and it seems to have kickstarted her career back into the sordid world of guest analysis.
Katrina’s Pick: 7- Broome (Ire)
“None of these names slap quite like Overnight Oats, but seeing as he came up short for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (next year, baby 🤞), the obvious next best choice is Broome. He will sweep the floor with the competition, and the fans won’t know what hit ‘em.”
In Hindsight: Broome had a ton of wordplay working in his favor, but unfortunately, he was slower than the other horses in the race, which likely proved to be a disadvantage. If a horse ever comes along named Overnight Oats, I’m afraid Katrina is going to lose every cent she has.
Jacob Blank
I’ve run into Jacob at random times throughout the past few weeks but any attempt to plan something with him has failed. One might think that we’re both at fault for this, but the problem with that theory is that I’ve never once been at fault for anything. I really hope he gets it together soon.
Jacob’s Pick: 4- Sealiway (Fr)
“While many of these equestrian athletes are worthy competitors, the winner here is clear: Sealiway will steal his way to the finish line, no doubt about it.”
In Hindsight: Sealiway is an interesting pick that every other guest avoided completely. Though I respect Jacob’s originality and creativity, the racing gods clearly thought otherwise, as he finished far out of contention in 16th. I hope he remains bold in future Paddy’s Picks editions.
Grace Getman
Grace is slowly, slowly warming up to life as a law school student at NYU, a process that seems difficult because of the student population and course load. In other news, her apartment is very warm and features a fairly comfortable floor couch. I look forward to forming a mosh pit there during the holiday season.
Grace’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“I’m torn between Stay Foolish and Bubble Gift. They sound like influencers. I’ll go with Stay Foolish. Self awareness should be rewarded.”
In Hindsight: Stay Foolish and Bubble Gift were arguably the two most whimsical names of the bunch, but they both belonged to rather slow horses. Bubble Gift was especially bad, finishing 17th, but Stay Foolish’s 14th-place performance wasn’t much better. Remember when Grace almost picked all three winners of the Triple Crown earlier this year?
Esme Bleecker-Adams
At an apple picking event two weeks ago, Esme went full-elf and would disappear for long stretches of time while she foraged. The group lost her on multiple occasions, and just when it seemed like we had seen the last of her, she would appear in a tree with a well-earned bounty of Empires. It made me feel bad that The Observer kept this forest spirit cooped up in an office for four years without food or water.
Esme’s Pick: 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn)
“I’m torn because as a fool I want Stay Foolish to win, but as a preschool teacher I want Bubble Gift to win because bubbles rock. But ultimately I believe it is my foolishness that defines me.”
In Hindsight: Like Grace, Esme narrowed the field down to Bubble Gift and Stay Foolish, and I’ll allow readers to make their own jokes about how cute they are. Unfortunately, the well-named pair didn’t do any running for Esme either.
Corbin Gregg
Corbin’s fantasy football team is 0-6 after six weeks, a shameful record that has undoubtedly shattered his confidence. Law school, once a joyful and exciting experience for him, has been reduced to a monotonous and irksome drag, all because he drafted Baker Mayfield in the third round.
Corbin’s Pick: 11- Titleholder (Jpn)
“Titleholder is going to take France by storm and triumph in this Prix de I’Arc de Triomphe. This is a prime moment in this steed’s career to show off on the international stage.”
In Hindsight: Corbin found a live runner, as Titleholder entered the Arc with plenty of hype. Unfortunately, the Japanese speedster faded in the late stages and finished 11th. But hey, he was ahead for some of it, right?
Kreena Vora
Once one of my silent partners in fantasy football, along with Clara Gerlach and Maddie Sandholm, Kreena has become a more active manager in recent weeks despite having no prior knowledge of fantasy and very little interest in football. Fortunately, she’s worked very hard to learn, and our team is frankly too good to mess up all that much. We’re having fun.
Kreena’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB)
“Alpinista or Titleholder. Honestly they both sound kinda boring but they seem to keep their heads down and win the races. So I’d say Alpinista is the safe choice. Titleholder is more risky. And then my random fun pick is Vadeni cuz he seems different.”
In Hindsight: She was a little indecisive, but I’m in a generous mood. Kreena identified Alpinista as the safe bet in the Arc, and the favorite came home to score big against the boys. Vadeni, her fun pick, finished second, marking a very effective day for one of this publication’s most promising novices.
Gil Russo
As far as I know, Gil’s career as a theater journalist is still a force to be reckoned with, and now I know that she cooks an excellent apple pie. As the key organizer for the aforementioned apple picking adventure, she was a prime target for anger in my head after I woke up at 7 o’clock in the morning on a Sunday to head into the city and take a two-hour bus ride upstate. Fortunately, her company alone made the entire journey worth it.
Gil’s Pick: 7- Broome (Ire) and 9- Mostahdef (Ire)
“Either Mostahdaf is most-ah daf-initely going to win, or Broome will absolutely sweep the competition.”
In Hindsight: The puns are spectacular, but neither horse lived up to their supporter’s quick wit. Mostahdef was especially disappointing, finishing dead last in the 20-horse field. That’s disappointing and all, but I have a feeling Gil will return undeterred when the next call comes.
Jill Rice
Jill’s fellowship at America Magazine carries on, as does the Jesuit plot to take over the world. On the way back from Gil’s Apple Picking Extravaganza, Jill took one of the hardest falls I’ve ever seen on the sidewalk and had to walk another mile to get back to the bus stop. I’m now confident that apple orchards are unforgiving autumnal hellscapes.
Jill’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso
“First, I love that Ireland has a horse named Luxembourg. A portentous name for the “richest race in France” (according to the esteemed owner of this site). There’s quite a lot from Great Britain (yes, I’m looking more at their locations than their names) so I’m going to veer away from those—simply too many. But since (said with a flip of the hair) I was in Germany this summer, I’ll throw in my hat for Torquator Tasso. I have no idea what those words mean, but sounds like a great horse to me. And if Mendocino wins instead, I’ll still take my prize money, thanks!”
In Hindsight: Dear reader, did you know that Jill went to Germany over the summer? The enlightening trip helped her here, as Torquator Tasso easily outran Luxembourg to finish third in impressive fashion. Ignoring the British contingent happened to be a mistake on this occasion, but everything’s a lesson for Jill. Now she knows to give the Brits a second look and watch the curbs on streets upstate.
Alyssa Macaluso
Alyssa and I have tried to keep tabs on one another in the past few weeks, but we’re both very busy and struggle to get a full conversation in. The furthest we’ve gotten so far is that she thinks I can wear a scarf well. Small steps.
Alyssa’s Pick: 6- Deep Bond (Jpn), 8- Stay Foolish (Jpn) and 14- Alpinista (GB)
“The reasoning: Stay Foolish is such a goofy name. no one on the field — or in the stands — is going to take him seriously. and that’s where his strategy comes in: on the outside, and possibly the inside too, Stay Foolish has a personality that lulls everyone into a false sense of security. “He can’t possibly win,” they say. “He’s simply wildin’ too much.” but Stay Foolish is going to bring a need for speed that will make those fools regret ever judging a horse by its name. (yes, i do recognize the irony in that last line).
Deep Bond’s name sparks many possibilities. First, it suggests a deep (or powerful) relationship between the horse and his jockey; between the horse and the field; between the horse and his commitment to the sport. But an additional reading that takes into account pop culture could interpret this steed as the James bond of horses — but deeper undercover than ever before. Like a spy, deep bond will sneak up on the pack, wait for his moment, and when all hope is almost lost, pull through and save the race.
Enter Alpinista. An alpine lover at heart, Alpinista is no stranger to climbing mountains (both literally and figuratively). She may not be the top (horse-sized) dog in this race, but she does bring her past experience traversing an impossible terrain to bear. Additionally, Alpinista brings optimista (optimism, Sp.) to the table. Between these two traits, Alpinista is sure to summit this mountain of a race up ahead.”
In Hindsight: So, Alyssa picked three horses in this race and seemed to support them with equal enthusiasm. This makes assessing her picks difficult. Stay Foolish and Deep Bond did very little running despite their thought-provoking names, but Alpinista won impressively as Alyssa predicted. Does she deserve credit for a win? Am I mean and grumpy to consider taking it away from her? Why is the word “railroad” one word for the Metro North (MNR) and two words for Long Island (LIRR)? In 1972, why did Jim Croce write “Bad, Bad Leroy Brown” and “You Don’t Mess Around With Jim,” two extremely similar story songs about an established tough guy in town getting beat up by a new tough guy in town? Why has no one written a song about this since? Did Croce corner the market on tough-guy-comeuppance story songs in the early 1970s?
Asa Brandyberry
O.K., maybe there are other tough-guy-comeuppance story songs. “Devil Came Down to Georgia” and “Boy Named Sue” spring to mind, now that I’m thinking about it. But Croce’s story song is so specific and niche, and he wrote two of them within months of one another! He ripped himself off! The first two thirds of both songs are all about how big and tough this guy is, and then a new guy comes into town. He says that the tough guy wronged him and nearly kills him in revenge, becoming the new de-facto tough guy in town. They’re both great songs — I would never criticize Jim Croce’s music. I’m just so intensely curious what made him write one of those songs in 1972 and think to himself, “Yep, folks need another one.” Not a sequel, mind you, but basically the exact same song with the names changed.
Asa’s Pick: 3- Torquator Tasso
“Oh, definitely Torquator Tasso, the name sounds like a mix of taquitos and tornados. Any horse fueled on taquitos with the speed if a tornado is a force to be reckoned with. Almost like a Taco Tempest. My money is on this taco-fueled cyclone-harnessing German mad lad. My condolences to the other horses and any Mexican restaurants in the area.”
In Hindsight: Oh. I got off track there. It’s Asa’s turn. Sorry. The mad architect’s first season as a Paddy’s Picks contributor has been overwhelmingly successful, and this is yet another very positive result. Torquator Tasso, the German taco cyclone, got the job done, finishing well in third. A slightly better performance would have given Asa his second winner in just five attempts.
Courtney Brogle
For a very long time, Courtney existed on the outside of these Paddy’s Picks articles because I assumed she had absolutely no interest in wasting her time like this. I’ve been proven wrong immediately. Courtney’s Haskell attempt was more spirited and enthusiastic than almost anyone’s. I really hope the joy these exercises bring makes up for that time I broke her television trying to watch the Mets.
Courtney’s Pick: 14- Alpinista (GB)
“Alpinista — like her three siblings also competing in the race — may be a nepotism baby, but like Hollywood industry children like Maya Hawke or Bryce Dallas Howard, she has proven her talent in her own right. That’s right, even in horse racing heritage can get you far, at least for Alpinista, Mostahdef, Onesto and Westover, all children of Frankel, the champion European thoroughbred who reigned (no pun intended) supreme through 2011. Her trainer Sir Mark Prescott even recently told The Guardian that he ‘trained her mother, her grandmother and endless aunts and they have made my career.’ And encouragingly, Alpinista won her seven most recent races (five of which were Group Ones). She’s got a lot to live up to, and I think she can put up a hell of a fight with her genes and the training she’s received.”
In Hindsight: Got it! In just her second Paddy’s Picks appearance facing a vast and unfamiliar 20-horse field, Courtney’s extensive research on past performances and racehorse breeding success in the United Kingdom led her to her first winner. She did the work to discover Alpinista, and now it’s a name she won’t forget.
Owen Roche
He has the floor.
Owen’s Pick: 20- Luxembourg (Ire)
“Ce n’est pas une course, c’est un monument. It’s not a race, it’s a monument.
The DiGiorno of horse races is living up to its slogan especially well this year, with competition (and elbows) as sharp as they come. Between the returning German champ, the race-day favorite Irishhorse and France’s darling equine son (piloted by an angry Frenchman who just earned a two-month suspension for Gladiatoring a fellow jockey off his horse mid-race), I’ll bet my bottom euro we’re in for a hell of a Subway Series.
Tough matchups like these can be paralyzing; nevertheless, I find myself looking back to another great race of our time for guidance. Sometimes, you don’t need to watch where you’re going – you just need to know where you’ve been. An aging champion. A fan favorite. A dirty trickster.
The 2006 Piston Cup.
Chick Hicks (Vadeni) has what it takes to win, but his skill is overshadowed by jockey Christophe Soumillon’s apparent penchant for incapacitating competitors. Strip “The King” Weathers (Torquator Tasso) is looking to rekindle old glory on an all-too-familiar stage, but time’s arrow marches ever-forward. The race is Lightning McQueen’s (Luxembourg’s) to lose, but the hotshot racer may be his own worst enemy.
Some have wondered if this will be the biggest Arc in recent history. I mean, come on – is the Popemobile Catholic?
Luxembourg by a tongue.”
In Hindsight: Wow, alright. For the first time ever, I have to critically analyze Owen’s analysis, not because it was substantive in any way, but because he actually stumbled on some key contenders. Obviously, he didn’t pick the winner; Luxembourg finished well behind in seventh. But Vadeni and Torquator Tasso ran extremely well to hit the wire in second and third, just behind the mare Alpinista. Some more progressive thinking might’ve led him to his first winner. Kachow and kudos for breaking out the race motto.