Who wants an introduction? This article is nearly 9,000 words long and it’s taken me two weeks to put together, but if an introduction is what you all want, then I’m more than happy to provide. I wish I could hear all of you clamoring.
As is always the case in these guest articles, I asked too many people to pick the winner of a high-profile horse race. I introduce them, they make a pick and explain, and then I either dole out quaint praise or hard-hitting criticism. This time, it was the G1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, an excellent dirt race that lived up to the hype despite a short field.
This year’s Cigar Mile was a blast for a number of reasons. It was a lot of fun to see such a competitive field so late in the year in New York, where the cold weather usually drives away the best and brightest of the sport. Mind Control and Get Her Number proved to be salty veterans going up against promising three-year-olds Zandon and White Abarrio, and in his farewell race, Mind Control had just enough left to win in a thrilling finish. I made some money on the event, and in an unexpected turn, a staggering amount of guests in this article would have done the same if they had placed a bet.
On the other hand, the event was somewhat mired by an outbreak of equine herpes at Churchill Downs in Kentucky, which led to a strict quarantine and O Besos’ withdrawal from the race. When I updated my guests about the scratch, many of them interpreted it as O Besos getting herpes himself, which didn’t happen. As a result, whenever a guest points out that O Besos has herpes, I make an explicit disclaimer in hindsight that the colt doesn’t actually have herpes. I’m doing this to protect his reputation and avoid the first defamation suit filed against a human by a quadruped.
In a natural transition away from equine herpes, I’d like to wish all of you a lovely holiday season. I hope this article suffices as a gift for all of you, because I didn’t get you anything else. Let’s get into it.
Aqueduct, Race 9
Cigar Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 Mile on the Dirt
Full Order of Finish
1- Mind Control (7)
2- Get Her Number (4)
3- White Abarrio (3)
4- Zandon (2)
5- Outlier (6)
6- Double Crown (1)
SCR- O Besos (5)
Joan Moquin
Winter break is rapidly approaching and my mother is counting the days. Make no mistake — her duty as a teacher is one she takes seriously, but one can only assume that working with sixth graders all day could take a toll on a person’s psyche. She plans to spend her break painting, learning chess and relaxing. She also recently read Dark Matter by Blake Crouch and is asking Paddy’s Picks readers for more book recommendations going forward.
Mom’s Pick: 3- White Abarrio
#3 White Abarrio
- 96 Beyers
- Tapit Line
- Jockey -Irad Ortiz
- off the pace horse
#7 Mind Control
- 109 Beyers
- Todd Pletcher horse
- Betnardini line
- Jockey -Vasquez
- experienced horse
- off the pace horse
#2 Zandon
- 103 Beyers
- off the pace, ocassional closer horse
- Chad Brown horse👎🏻
- 2021 Aqueduct 2nd place finish
- Jockey -Rosario
My bold, final analysis even though it should be it should probably be boxed!
Trifecta Straight: White Abarrio, Mind Control, Zandon
In Hindsight: So close! While my mother did successfully identify the three most reputable runners in the race, a blanket finish cost her a big win. Mind Control managed to outlast White Abarrio and Get Her Number in the stretch to win a photo at the wire. Zandon turned out to be even weaker than she suspected, as the favored colt was likely hindered by the shorter distance and grueling three-year-old schedule this year. Though it wasn’t a winning effort for Bethpage’s All-Star Educator, there’s plenty to appreciate nonetheless.
Kristina Stevanovic
Kristina and I had a conversation recently that all of you can play along with if you’d like. My question was simple: if Kristina were to play on an NBA team every night against other NBA teams, how many games would it take her to get a rebound? She said that it would take her more than a single 82-game regular season (boldly assuming a team starting her every night wouldn’t make the playoffs), while I argued that she could luck into one sooner if she thought outside the box. We agreed that her positive mindset would be an asset because she would have as much belief in herself in the 100th game as the first. Her nickname on the streets, Sweaty Stevanovic, would easily transfer over to the hardwood as well.
Kristina’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Totally get Zandon as the favorite, killer horse and now no Epicenter means he can really show up (also ew @ Chad Brown). But I’m liking Pletcher’s Mind Control for this one. Only slightly nervous about Mind Control typically running around 7 furlongs while the other horses have run longer stretches more often but I think Todd knows what he’s doing so my pick is number 7.”
In Hindsight: Kristina is the first of many experienced guests that nailed this one, and it was gratifying to see so many of the people I’ve taught find the same winner. The key to this race was to recognize Zandon as a talented favorite with vulnerabilities, because at 4-5 odds, there were certainly better options. Keeks locked in on distance as an important factor with some horses cutting back while others were stretching out. Mind Control was best-suited to a mile and Pletcher had him ready to go at 3-1 odds. Sweaty has now cashed on three of her last four guest contributions on Paddy’s Picks.
Niko Konstantellis
Beyond his role as a dutiful Paddy’s Picks contributor, Niko was unemployed for some duration of time between September and November. I could verify this information and provide a tighter timeframe, but the pathos is what really counts here. He is now employed and ready for the rest of his life.
Niko’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Does it really matter? He’s gonna lose anyway.”
In Hindsight: Niko’s lack of confidence going into the Cigar Mile came from a litany of failures as a guest contributor in recent… years. Between his debut in August 2020 and November 2022, Niko earned two wins in 19 attempts, less than many guests who consistently pick horses at random. Is this the start of a new hot streak? Will Kristina allow him to copy all of her picks going forward?
George McKnight
A myth is beginning to form around George McKnight and his Paddy’s Picks contributions. If you haven’t heard, then you haven’t spoken to him in a while. There are a handful of successful handicappers and a few lucky casual fans that strike gold every now and then on this site, but no one has come close to George’s sustained success. In nine contributions since 2020, he has won seven races with a $6.45 ROI on an average $2 bet. His analysis has become more articulate as time has gone on, and for the Cigar Mile, it reached a point where I felt compelled to include it alongside my own pre-race analysis.
George’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
To read George’s Cigar Mile analysis, check out the official Paddy’s Picks article covering the race.
In Hindsight: He was witty, self-deprecating and emphatically correct. There’s not much else to say. This certainly wasn’t George’s greatest handicapping achievement this year, but he didn’t flinch in tossing the favorite Zandon and found easy value in Mind Control, a runner far better suited to the distance. One can only hope that this Sunnyside Sensation can sustain his success as the new year approaches.
Lucas Ludgate
Since moving to Texas, Lucas has gained no new territory and remains a lowly cattle rancher without any firearms. His handicapping remains sharp, however, as he seldom misses an opportunity to contribute to his favorite pony blog.
Lucas’ Pick: 7- Mind Control
“I like Mind Control outright. Only quality early speed horse and the favorite, Zandon, hasn’t proven he can win despite strong Beyers.”
In Hindsight: Lucas’ analysis is perfectly distilled, as I’ve already mentioned several times that the key to this race was tossing the favorite and finding the clear alternative. Mind Control outright at 3-1 was a steal and Lucas was all over it to earn his fifth career win as a guest on Paddy’s Picks.
Hugh Esterson
Armed with a mainstream research technique and his own deductive reasoning, Hugh entered the Cigar Mile on a two-race winning streak, the first of his career. The automobile racer is finally transitioning to the best quadrupedal game in town, just in time for the new year.
Hugh’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“If there are two qualities you want to survive in NYC, it’s street smarts and mental strength. I think those traits are likely inherent to a horse called Mind Control. Judging by their results at the Aqueduct, this horse, jockey, and trainer know the streets of NYC, and they know them well. Mind Control has won four times on the track, John Velazquez has won the Cigar Mile twice, and Pletcher’s won it five times. That’s a lot of winning. Watch for Mind Control to take it home in his last run on Saturday, while Velazquez captures his third victory, a remarkable 21 years after his maiden win in Cigar Mile.
Also, prayers up (and kisses) to O Besos, who has a nasty case of the equine herpes. Sheesh.
Sources: https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2022-2022-cigar-mile-cheat-sheet-get-know-the-horses
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Cigar_Mile_2022_Odds_and_Analysis_123”
In Hindsight: This isn’t the last time I’ll have to reiterate this, but O Besos didn’t have equine herpes. He was simply quarantined because of the outbreak, though Hugh’s well wishes should nevertheless be appreciated. As for Mind Control, the older horse did exactly what Hugh thought he would, winning a tough stretch duel over Get Her Number to retire as a winner. Mr. Esterson’s streak stretches again to three in what now appears to be a legitimate improvement in form for the up-and-coming handicapper.
Matt Clarkin
Matt’s been a man of few words lately. He hasn’t needed them.
Matt’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Mind Control. Easy win.”
In Hindsight: It wasn’t as easy as Matt thought it would be, but a win for Mind Control gives Holy Cross’ favorite son his second in a row as a Paddy’s Picks contributor. I think no-hitter rules have to take effect at some point here. No one talk to him. No one look at him. Let the man work.
Tyler Zorn
On the Paddy’s Picks Podcast in November, Tyler went with a heavy favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and got burned by a solid contender who was better suited to the Keeneland racecourse. It’s interesting to see how my contributors learn from race to race.
Tyler’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number and 1- Double Crown
“A lot of good horses in this race, tough to say how this one will turn out. Tough to pick against Zandon with those impressive Beyer scores, but the horse just hasn’t been able to get over the hump. Additionally, has not run in a while. I’m actually going to take Double Crown and Get Her Number in a box exacta. Both have run recently with success, and Double Crown has familiarity with the course.”
In Hindsight: Double Crown was a disappointment at long odds, but Tyler’s ability to find Get Her Number will likely go underappreciated. The hard-fighting four-year-old easily outkicked favorite Zandon and came dangerously close to foiling Mind Control in a photo finish at the wire. It’s still a losing bet for Tyler, a guest who has had his fair share of bad luck at the track, but toss his future selections at your own peril.
Chris Murray
On Jan. 9, Chris will shuffle off this mortal coil for a semester to study abroad at Fordham University’s London campus. This is a massive loss for anyone stateside who has made Chris’ acquaintance, as they will now have to use a ladder or chair to get things off high shelves for the next few months. The mortality rate of cats stuck in trees is also sure to skyrocket.
Chris’ Pick: 3- White Abarrio
“He’s just one of my favorite horses, if I have a chance to take him I will. What a handsome fellow! He’s also known to enjoy an occasional cigar, so the Cigar Mile should be a walk in the park for him. I’ll actually give you the top three because I’m so confident: 1) White Abarrio 2) Mind Control 3) Zandon.”
In Hindsight: In a different world, White Abarrio was a few steps quicker in the Cigar Mile and managed to get past Mind Control on the inside in the stretch. But we live in this world, and for a guest handicapper that is now 0-for-13 on the site, missing Mind Control by that much hurts a little extra. There’s reason to hope, however. When George McKnight left New York last summer to pursue a life of crime in London, his handicapping analysis reached new heights that he has not yet come down from. One can only hope that young Christopher can find the same inspiration.
Madeline Sandholm
Maddie’s been a little busy lately. Mired by an extensive term project (now accessible here), roles as editor for multiple Fordham publications and general schoolwork, she has flawlessly transitioned from mysterious outsider to eccentric hermit. Sorry — tired, eccentric hermit. Anyway, everyone’s favorite TEH somehow found the time to make a Paddy’s Picks contribution, weeks after earning her first win on the Paddy’s Picks Podcast with Goodnight Olive (#808000) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
Maddie’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“I cannot fathom being witty right now, but I can’t miss a Paddy’s Pick, especially because I’m equally intrigued and off-put by equine herpes (but wouldn’t have picked O Besos anyways). But here we go.
Outlier. I feel like this horse is a bit of an underdog (pretty sure that’s similar enough to the “actual” definition of outlier), and who doesn’t love a good underdog story? Also, I had to do math today and I’m still haunted by it, so unfortunately, the math term is really sticking out to me.”
In Hindsight: So, for the second time in this article, I’m mentioning that O Besos did not personally have equine herpes. But regarding Outlier, I have mixed feelings about Maddie’s reasoning. First, he was more than a bit of an underdog at 58-1. He was… a bop of an underdog. Still, she was correct that his long shot status feels close enough to the definition of his namesake, though I’m confused why she put quotes around “actual” instead of “outlier.” It makes it sound like she’s trying to trick me. And I do love a good underdog story, so it was a good rhetorical question from Maddie as well. But I have a serious problem, and it’s with her decision to connect her toxic on-again, off-again relationship with math to Outlier’s chances. For future reference, the feeling of being haunted is usually a good reason to toss a horse.
Shaily Jani
I talk to Shaily too much to not have anything to report about her life recently. We’ve mostly discussed music and apocalypse strategies these last few weeks, and she was part of a team of people I counted on to support me in my first foray into baking cookies. But besides all that, I think she’s doing well? At least we agree that Mind Control is a bland name for a horse, right?
Shaily’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“No, because Mind Control is a wild name for a horse. It’s daring, it’s dangerous, but also a little intriguing. He’s got what it takes to win this race. If he doesn’t, he has the power to make everyone THINK he did, so that’s a winner to me.”
In Hindsight: Oh, alright. So the opposite of what I said. Shaily’s unwavering support of Mind Control was a return to her strong form from the summer, when she swept the Belmont, Haskell and Travers. In 10 appearances on the site this year, she has won four times with an overwhelmingly profitable $3.71 ROI. The calendar doesn’t matter to this young upstart — Shaily shines in all sheasons.
Emily Ellis
If you can’t guess which horse Emily picked in this race, you don’t know her at all. If that’s the case, let me help you out. She’s an English major that prefers to read romance and fantasy novels. Not just the sappy stuff either — the depraved stuff with growling and horns in places where they shouldn’t be. She was born on Feb. 14. She believes men are the root of all evil but is currently dating a deer hunter. She publishes a column for The Fordham Observer called “Ask Em,” where she provides relationship advice to anonymous readers who are roughly the same age as her. Ready to guess?
Emily’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“It sounds like it should be a song in a romantic ensemble musical. Like if it was a song, it would sound like ‘Kiss the Girl’ in the Little Mermaid.”
In Hindsight: Emily got dangerously close to her first win on Paddy’s Picks with her hopelessly romantic reasoning here, but Get Her Number proved to be a half-step slow as runner-up to Mind Control. There’s a joke there somewhere about a superior dating tactic, but Emily wouldn’t like me much for making it.
Savannah Stewart
Without Paddy’s Picks, there’s a distinct chance that I still wouldn’t know Savannah’s last name. And what a shame that would be — I’d be missing out on some beautiful alliteration.
Savannah’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Mind Control because he’s old and spunky I believe. I did not look up any stats and this is by no means a knowledgeable pick. I’m just feeling it in my bones. He’s also kinda off-lookin’ and now that I look at it he’s won a race or two at Monmouth and Parx in the summer. I’m a little afraid this is a good pick because I’ll ruin my streak of failing!!! (which i’m actually pissed about but I’m holding it down dw)”
In Hindsight: Savannah’s worst fears have been realized. She’s won a race. Regardless of how knowledgeable her reasoning was, Mind Control maintained his form from the summer and managed to take down a field of talented runners in his farewell race. The streak of failures ends here, for better or worse.
Grace Getman
Grace, the people don’t want you to pick a funny name! They want entertainment! They want to learn! They want to be engaged! Go, go, go!
Grace’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Instead of picking a funny name, I’ve decided to dedicate my Paddy’s Picks to different famous idioms that come from the noble sport of horse racing:
- Photo finish – By far the most famous idiom to come from horse-racing, this fairly literally refers the practice of using photography to figure out the winner of a close horse race.
- Dark horse – This refers to a horse that there isn’t enough information out there to place a knowledgeable bet on, but its origins are actually literary. The first mention of this idiom is in an 1831 novel written by future British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
- Down to the wire – In the same vein as a ‘photo finish,’ this idiom is thought to refer to the practice of placing a small wire above the finish line to help the judges determine the winner during the 1800s.
- Homestretch – I’ve always assumed that this expression comes from baseball, but it turns out that ‘homestretch’ refers to the part of a racecourse between the last turn and the winning post
- Dead heat – This comes to us via 18th century England, when ‘heat’ was just a general term for a race, rather than its current more specific meanings
- Trifecta – This comes from horse betting, and the practice of betting on three horses to place in a specific sequence, before getting carried over to refer to any group of 3.
- Across the board: Similarly, ‘across the board’ originally referred to picking the same horse to place first, second, or third.
- Neck and neck – Pretty intuitively, this comes from horses were both so close to each other making it almost impossible to determine who was in the lead.
- On the fast track – This expression allegedly refers to a dry, hard horse track that was best suited for letting the horses run at high speeds.
- Get someone’s goat – Etymologists are not sure where this expression came from, but we know that it basically sprang from some American’s head in the early 20th century. The alleged story behind this (which most people don’t put much stock in, but is the only one we really have) is that there was a practice of putting goats in horse stalls the night before races to help calm them. If you wanted to ‘get someone’s goat,’ you would steal the goat from the stall to unsettle the horse before the big race.
BONUS CONTENT: Also, I think Mind Control has it in the bag.
In Hindsight: Everyone knows that you never give away 10 fun facts at once in a serialized segment. Now people will expect 10 facts every time. For all of the knowledge Grace provided to readers in this article, she’s clearly unfamiliar with Dickens. As an aside, Mind Control did indeed have it in the bag.
Esme Bleecker-Adams
Esmé said that she loved my website and that I seem to put a lot of effort into it. She has since been promoted to lifetime contributor and Paddy’s Picks Certified Horse Lady.
Esme’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“Was about to pick ‘Cigar Mike’ until I realized that was the title of the race and also Mile not Mike so I’m doing great, but after careful consideration, I have a brand (not the horse kind) to stay true to, so I have to say ‘Get Her Number.’”
In Hindsight: Only a certified horse lady could differentiate between the name of the race and names of the horses. As an outside contender, Get Her Number outran his odds and nearly won before losing a grueling stretch duel with Mind Control. Still, Esme’s Cigar Mike pick ran gamely and her brand improves with each Paddy’s Picks appearance she makes.
Corbin Gregg
Bear with me as I discuss an actual human being like he’s intellectual property, but in recent months, I worry that my Corbin commentary has become a caricature of itself. His law school experience is difficult and his fantasy football team sucks, but there’s more to a man than his funniest misadventures. Let’s flesh this Paddy’s Picks character out a little, shall we? At a murder mystery party back in April, Corbin portrayed washed-up rocker Grayson Kreig, and I made an earnest accusation that he killed my fictional sister. His subdued demeanor wouldn’t have worked for a rocker in his prime, but it was sublime for one with regrets and a career gone by.
Corbin’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“Outlier is either going to do really poorly, or really well, and I’m going to bet on it doing really well.”
In Hindsight: Outlier did really poorly.
Kreena Vora
As Kreena has continued on in her handicapping journey, I regret to say that she seems to have hit a plateau. Content with her current level of success and knowledge, her analysis hasn’t been quite as detailed or articulate as she focuses on more pressing matters in her collegiate career. Mostly keg stands.
Kreena’s Pick: 3- White Abarrio
“I remember White Abarrio and Zandon. And I like White Abarrio and don’t have the motivation to conduct much research beyond wins so I’m going with him.”
In Hindsight: Going on memory would be acceptable for many casuals in this article, but Kreena is better than this! Zandon was a bad favorite and White Abarrio doesn’t perform as well outside of Florida! See it, Kreena! Live it, love it!
Alyssa Macaluso
Without analysis from Asa Brandyberry, Alyssa’s lesser half who failed to provide a pick for the Cigar Mile and may or may not have told me to shove my pony blog where the sun don’t shine, I was really hoping that Alyssa would step up despite her busy schedule. Fortunately, there are few people I know who are more likely to rise to the occasion.
Alyssa’s Pick: 2- Zandon
“1- Double Crown
One crown is a lot of weight, but two is simply too much for this old man. They will rest heavy on his brow and weigh him down as he tries to hobble his way to the front. May this race not be his last.
2- Zandon
Though I have not opted for this horse in previous races, the last letter of the alphabet is my bet to come in first.
3- White Abarrio
This roan vision may not have had the best performance recently, but I believe in him to come back this time. His odds are slightly improved in this herd, maybe headed for third. (In my heart, he’ll always be #1 though.)
4- Get Her Number
I don’t like a pushy man, but I appreciate this horse’s determination and perseverance. Though hopefully the only number he is pursuing is #1.
5- O Besos
My advice to him: If you’re going to hoe, hoe responsibly. Or maybe this poor horse is just cursed because his name conjures up a cult-like worship of a blood-sucking capitalist.
6- Outlier
I mean, from the name alone, he’s just begging to come in last. And unfortunately, his stats don’t foreshadow his singularity at the front of the pack. At some point, it’s just cruel to give a horse an unironic name.
7- Mind Control
Although he has decent odds, this race isn’t a mind game (for the horses). It’s going to take actual skill—and, more importantly, grit—to beat out the competition in this race. Mind Control is simply too cerebral to tussle in the trenches and come out in front of this hopefully close race.”
In Hindsight: For the third time in this article, I’m mentioning that O Besos did not personally have equine herpes. Going against Zandon served Alyssa well in the past, so her support of the three-year-old in this spot was unfortunate. The cerebral pick turned out to be the cerebral runner, Mind Control, who had grit to spare after winning a grueling stretch duel in his farewell race. Regardless of its accuracy, however, Alyssa’s analysis will always be appreciated for its detail and enthusiasm. I hardly even miss Asa (I still desperately miss Asa. Come back Asa.).
Jill Rice
Instead of Classical Greek or rigid Christianity, Jill has been pushing her fondness for German music lately and I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the change of pace. Her Spotify Wrapped this year was composed of artists that are simultaneously internationally known and completely obscure, which makes her top 0.1% listenership difficult to evaluate. I don’t know if she still plans to live in Germany someday, but it would make for a satisfying character arc.
Jill’s Pick: 2- Zandon
“Good morning, I’m reporting to you live from the subway, it’s 5:10 a.m. Welcome.
I’ve been told that O Besos has been scratched due to an outbreak of equine herpes, which I did not think I would ever need to know existed. O Besos reminds me a little too much of Jeff Bezos, so I’m alright with not having to make a decision on that one. I think Double Crown is a bit too arrogant—you’ve got the triple crown, and in this one’s name s/he is bragging about having 2/3! Pretty sure s/he doesn’t have two crowns!
Outlier and Mind Control are giving me very similar vibes, kinda sci-fi-esque, but I’m not feeling that they’ll be able to mind-control or outlay the others into being first.
Get Her Number… feels a little sexist. I was told I had strange standards when I was on Paddy’s Picks Podcast, wherein I thought magic was worse than mild sexism. But I’m going to say Get Her Number won’t Get Number One.
This is more horses than I usually talk about. You’re welcome, Pat. This leaves me with White Abarrio and Zandon. They both seem very normal and nondescript. My vote is for Zandon because it’s the most horse-in-a-horse-race name.”
In Hindsight: Jill’s detailed analysis is more than welcome, even when it doesn’t hit anywhere near the mark. Zandon does have a very equestrian name and actually went off as a heavy race favorite, but the highly touted three-year-old delivered a nondescript performance to finish fourth. Meanwhile, the moral debate between magic and mild sexism rages on.
Cristine Kalinski
I decided to hold off on my introduction for Cristine until the World Cup ended, because her status in life is spiritually connected to the success of Lionel Messi. I’m happy to say that Cristine us doing well at the moment.
Cristine’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Mehhhhhh I think I’ll go Mind Control, it definitely sounds the most powerful. Outlier seems like something you toss, Get Her Number isn’t doing it for me, what does Zandon and White Abarrio even mean?? And Double Crown just sounds like a horse that lacks confidence, isn’t the thing you want a triple crown? Overall, I’m just sad that O Besos got herpes.”
In Hindsight: Alright, so she nailed it. For the fourth time in this article, I’m mentioning that O Besos did not personally have equine herpes. But besides that, Cristine’s blind analysis was perfect. Mind Control was the most powerful, Outlier was one to toss, Get Her Number didn’t do it for anyone, Zandon and White Abarrio don’t mean s*** and Double Crown came up at least one crown short. Cristine has now won four races in seven attempts on Paddy’s Picks, making her one of the most profitable guests in the site’s history. Vamos, vamos.
Gil Russo
Gil’s advanced understanding of the arts and cinnamon-forward cocktails has not yet transferred over to horse racing, but she remains earnest in her endeavors on this humble pony blog.
Gil’s Pick: 3- White Abarrio
“Can Mind Control hypnotize the other horses into running more slowly? He’s a (horse)shoo-in if so. But I’m going to go with White Abarrio simply because I recognize the name. Get Her Number is a bit forward, O Besos reminds me of Jeff Bezos, Double Crown is a rather overconfident name, Zandon’s just not jumping out at me (watch him win) and Outlier could be an outlier on the good or bad side. Pass, pass, pass, pass, and pass. Just don’t pass White Abarrio, so I end up being right.”
In Hindsight: Gil’s rhetorical question was on the right track, but she ultimately decided to go with White Abarrio, who ran well in a losing effort to Mind Control. Most of her passes were dead on, however, which should lead readers to question if this longtime casual contributor is slowly starting to put the pieces together. Only future efforts in the new year can tell.
Katrina Lambert
After eating her soup and finishing her bingo game with Gertie and Dolores, Katrina managed to make a pick for the Cigar Mile shortly before her 9 p.m. bedtime. She’s gotten a little bitter in her old age, so I’m glad she could hold it together without saying anything offensive this time around.
Katrina’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“So if I was going to do this the right way, I would start by Googling each of these horses, look at their stats, Google how to analyze horse stats (horse stats? Equestrian stats? Racing stats? Stats?), and then watch a few races so I get a feel for their ~vibe~ but I’m a little sleepy right now because it’s 7:52 and my bedtime is in an hour. Maybe next time I’ll actually educate myself before making an educated guess. So instead I’m going to go with my default which is picking my favorite name.
There’s some good ones this time. Get Her Number is tempting, as is Double Crown, but I think I’m going to go with Outlier? I have this fantasy where Outlier was always doing horse things out of the box. Like they said, jump and Outlier dug its hooves into the dirt and trotted back to the stables for a few salt licks. And when it comes to racing, Outlier is no different. The jockey tries to control him and Outlier takes off and wins out of spite. So that’s my vision, and I hope I’m not wrong.”
In Hindsight: Outlier was certainly exceptional, finishing fifth in a six-horse field at prohibitively long odds. Without much of a chance going into the race, Outlier could have been an easy toss for Katrina if she had done some research, but it didn’t matter in the end, as her profoundly entertaining imagination compensated for her ineptitude.
Nicole Kraemer
I think I caught Nicole in a bad mood in the run up to the Cigar Mile. Let’s see if readers can spot it.
Nicole’s Pick: None of them
Nicole on Wednesday, Dec. 1: “Ugh I don’t like any of them.”
Nicole on Friday, Dec. 3: “I told you I don’t like them.”
Nicole later on Friday, Dec. 3: “I don’t like any of them!!!”
Nicole even later on Friday, Dec. 3: “I don’t get the vibe that any of them are going to do well.”
In Hindsight: Nicole failed to pick the winner of the Cigar Mile. We here at Paddy’s Picks sincerely hope she returns with enthusiasm next time.
Megan DiDominica
First, a glowing introduction for a debuting guest. Before graduating from Oceanside High School (Go Sailors!), Megan DiDominica was a locally acknowledged third-row cellist at Florence A. Smith Elementary School, where she made a habit of getting slightly higher grades than me. Slightly. She went on to attend Holy Cross and is now studying to become a doctor. As for her horse racing knowledge, she has none, but I suspect she’ll catch on to the vibe around here quickly.
Megan’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“Easy, Get Her Number. I respect confidence, whether or not the person asking has game, the wingman/woman does and is doing their duty. Second was Mind Control but I’d rather not explain.”
In Hindsight: Shockingly close. Get Her Number was certainly justified in his confidence in a very hard-fought runner-up finish, only coming up short to Mind Control, Megan’s other pick in the race. Her lack of an explanation for Mind Control is vaguely ominous, but it’s easy to overlook with accuracy like that. Welcome to the show.
Matt Ludington
Time for a tangent that will eventually find its way to Matt. For those of you who don’t know, I’ve recently begun rooting for the Orlando Magic. They’re a young and exciting team on the rise and the Knicks make me sad. Before the start of the season, I did my due diligence. I checked with multiple people to confirm that I wasn’t hopping on any bandwagons. Instead, I was told that I was doing the opposite — I was hopping on an upturned chariot submerged in a river. But you can’t sit there and tell me that a team with so much young talent could ever be boring. Anyway, the reason I’m mentioning this to Matt is because my Magic, currently 12-21, just beat his beloved Celtics twice in the span of three days. I won’t gloat too much, as I’ve seen my former roommate scream at the Celtics through the television like they personally killed his firstborn. But I can’t help but gloat a little: Abracadabra a******.
Matt’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“After some thought I have decided Mind Control will live up to his name and influence the other horses to commit seppuku prior to the race to the horror of the audience while also simultaneously guaranteeing victory for himself.”
In Hindsight: So the final result wasn’t quite as graphic as Matt anticipated, but Mind Control did indeed win in an intense stretch duel ahead of Get Her Number and White Abarrio. A more violent approach for the colt may have yielded a more decisive approach, but Matt’s eye for potential proved sufficient. This is the first win of his Paddy’s Picks career.
Audrey O’Brien
Audrey’s out there somewhere, probably doing something cool. She kept it brief this time around, so I feel obligated to reciprocate.
Audrey’s Pick: 2- Zandon
“Zandon. Cool name.”
In Hindsight: It certainly was a cool name for a cool horse. The future is bright for Zandon, but the Cigar Mile wasn’t his race.
Tony Kraus
Most of the time, Tony is a laid back type with a calming demeanor and keen eye for detail. Occasionally though, he assumes the identity of doom harbinger with an intensity that betrays his various styles of skater haircut. I’d like to prepare readers for such an occasion here.
Tony’s Pick: Chaos
“My prediction is that equine herpes appears at this racetrack too. Everything gets canceled and all the horse-athletes get herpes. It’ll go down as one of the biggest tragedies in horse sport, alongside The Great Hippodrome Fire of 436. Serious reforms are made but it might be too late. Is this the end of horse sport as we know it? Find out next time on Paddy’s Picks.”
In Hindsight: Tony is one of the few individuals that correctly interpreted the news of a herpes outbreak in Kentucky. He used it to paint a vision of doom, forcing me to recall the dark days after the Great Hippodrome Fire and various equine tragedies that have befallen me since the sport’s early days. Fortunately, the fine horses at Aqueduct avoided the sins of their Kentucky companions, maintaining their chastity and keeping New York racing in order.
Eddie Harrison
Several weeks ago, Eddie invited me to a bar on a Thursday night to do trivia with his friends. I learned so much. First, if you get multiple trivia questions right in front of strangers, they will automatically assume you’re Dustin Hoffman’s character in “Rain Man.” Second, “Guess the Song” rounds in bar trivia are ageist and punish anyone younger than 25 or older than 35. Third, bar employees really prefer that you celebrate when they announce who’s in the lead after each round. There’s an awkward pause if you do the “been there before” shtick and then they come over after to make sure you’re having a good time.
Eddie’s Pick: 1- Double Crown
“I would like to let my loyal fanbase know that since the last time I appeared in this column I made my first bet on a horse. The racing was done with chariots, but Mr. Picks told me it’s actually called harness racing. He told me that with these chariots, the inside horse wins more often than not. He also told me that he spends at least half an hour making his picks, but I had five minutes until the next race. Since I lost by picking the inside, I am yet again going for this strategy because I feel like I am due.”
In Hindsight: Eddie’s early wagers on harness racing, or chariot racing as it was known during his early days as consul, are a wonderful step on his way to a promising career in degenerate gambling. Unfortunately, this newly acquired knowledge did little to help him in his return to thoroughbred events. If Eddie is ever going to make a massive profit at the track someday and blow it all immediately afterwards on twilight kangaroo boxing, he will have to focus on a single equestrian format and learn everything he can.
Juliana Burke
Jul is currently based in Minnesota working for Ernst & Young, which I’ve been told is a fairly big deal. By her. She’s also been kind enough to extend an invite to join her in the Gopher State at some point, but I’m not sold on lakes yet.
Juliana’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“Omg EASY: Outlier. Outlier is like the outcast. You always underestimate the outcast, the one who’s a little weird, a little off, a little ‘different.’ But it’s the underdog that always wins.”
In Hindsight: Sometimes the underdog loses. In fact, they usually get crushed. Outlier finished fifth, but he maintained his weirdness, and that’s what matters.
Marissa Gootee
So technically, Marissa didn’t pick a horse in this race. But she seemed to be well on her way to picking one before she disappeared for five days, and I’m in the mood to give her partial credit.
Marissa’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“In your honest opinion, do you think Get Her Number will actually be able to acquire her number?”
In Hindsight: There are a lot of ways to interpret that question. The most obvious reading is that Marissa was asking if Get Her Number, a horse, would be capable of acquiring a phone number from a woman or female horse that he was fond of. I think that would be a struggle, personally. Another way to understand Marissa’s question is through clever wordplay. Will this horse be able to “get the number” of his opponents? Based on what I know about my pal Marissa, I don’t think that’s what she was driving at, but it does help arrive at a point here, because Get Her Number nearly did just that, finishing second in a close photo finish.
Mia Agostinelli
From what I gathered, Mia was extremely busy when I asked her to make a pick for the Cigar Mile. But then again, she always seems busy, so I can feel guilty or I can continue to badger her for equestrian advice until she tells me to go away.
Mia’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“Outlier because they make my life as an economics major more interesting.”
In Hindsight: Mia actually stumbled on an interesting detail regarding Outlier, because his fifth-place finish is a little deceptive. The colt was never supposed to win the race; his job was to set a fast pace for his late-closing stablemate, Double Crown, a plan by trainer Russell Cash that proved futile. So while he was a poor pick to win, he did make the race more interesting. So Mia was right, I suppose?
Allie Stofer
As the EIC of The Fordham Observer, Allie technically doesn’t have time to spend working for my pony blog. She has hopes and dreams and priorities. Anyway, here’s her pick for my pony blog.
Allie’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“You know what her number is? Number one because she’s gonna win the race.”
In Hindsight: Couple things. First, Get Her Number is a male horse, and when she was informed of this, Allie elected to leave her analysis as is. Second, Get Her Number’s number was four. Third, he finished second. Everyone still with me?
Brianna Doucette
Coming off a World Cup victory for Argentina, there’s very little that will be able to faze Brianna for at least a few more weeks. There were definitely a few moments throughout the team’s run that she regretted being in a group chat with me, but I’m very glad I got to witness the rollercoaster from the perspective of a diehard fan.
Brianna’s Pick: 2- Zandon and 7- Mind Control
“Zandon, since he finished 3rd at the Kentucky Derby and has won this race several times meaning it’s a comfortable one for him. Also Mind Control because with a name like that you can’t not pick ‘em.”
In Hindsight: Paddy’s Picks guests who pick two horses are cheating a little, especially when they win. But Brianna’s support of Mind Control seemed like more of a side bet, and while her first choice disappointed as the race favorite, one of the newest guests on Paddy’s Picks can certainly hold her head high.
Christian Madlansacay
Word around town is that Christian has been in a spectacular mood lately. I don’t know what that’s all about — he hasn’t seen me in a month. There can’t be much else bringing him joy out there, but it must be good news in any case.
Christian’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Mind Control because it sounds very intimidating, but also very powerful :)”
In Hindsight: Christian’s quaint single-sentence analysis was finally dead on. Mind Control was both intimidating and powerful in his farewell race, running gamely to take down a very talented field at Aqueduct. This is Christian’s first win on Paddy’s Picks.
Emma Regovich
Emma is making her debut on Paddy’s Picks despite the fact that we’ve spoken in person on less than three occasions. Besides the fact that she goes to Fordham, all I know about her is that her fantasy football team is nearly as good as mine this season.
Emma’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“I was between Zandon and Mind Control but I’ll have to go with Mind Control for the win simply because the name stuck out to me the most. I feel like a horse with a name like Mind Control has led an interesting life and has the potential to win.”
In Hindsight: What a debut! Narrowing this field down to Zandon and Mind Control is extremely impressive for someone who clearly guessed, and going with Mind Control because of his “interesting life” is an indirect way of crediting him for his prior experience on the track. Excellent work for a promising up-and-comer.
Gabby Bermudez
First things first, greetings to Gabby’s Instagram followers! Sorry to interrupt a nearly constant stream of intense jiu jitsu content and depressing, existential posts about finals on her feed as of late. Gabby is firmly established as one of my most enthusiastic guests, so any lengthier introduction than this one would be unnecessary. Let’s see what she’s got this time.
Gabby’s Pick: 4- Get Her Number
“I’ve been seeing 4’s a lot lately. And I think it was a sign from the universe leading up to this. The universe told me 4, Get Her Number, is going to win. My other option if the universe led my astray — the 5, O Besos.
Besos mean kisses in Spanish. And I love that! This pick is just a gut feeling. You know I’m a numbers girl, and I don’t have a good feeling with the number 5. But I think that feeling is balanced out by my love for the name, O Besos.”
In Hindsight: Unfortunately, Gabby waxed poetic about O Besos before she knew about a herpes outbreak in Kentucky. In this sense, her gut feeling was about as wrong as possible. But Get Her Number proved to be a much more solid pick for the young Sports & Health Editor, as the colt finished well to finish second behind Mind Control. Very solid effort.
Aurelien Clavaud
Earlier this semester, Aurelien told me that he was working more on self-care and was fixing his erratic sleep schedule. I wonder how that’s going. On one hand, he tends to make split-second decisions and follow them persistently. On the other hand, his sleep schedule as a freshman last year was poor enough for me to notice, and I sleep about as well as a rabid mongoose.
Aurelien’s Pick: 2- Zandon
“I’ve done no research cuz I wanna make this fun. Most of my money would be on Zandon cuz that seems to be the most normal name of the lot. but also White Abarrio just radiates confidence to me. Finally, I’d put my stupid bet on Outlier because betting on a horse literally NAMED to be a loser is really fun.”
In Hindsight: Aurelien wasn’t very courageous for this one, picking three horses to win. White Abarrio finishes fastest in third but none of them won, calling into question the strategy of hedging one’s bets in a sport with one winner’s circle.
Courtney Brogle
As a rapidly ascending journalist at NBC, Courtney knows a thing or two about writing under pressure. As a surprisingly successful guest on Paddy’s Picks, Courtney knows at least three things about horses and makes the most of every opportunity.
Courtney’s Pick: 2- Zandon or 7- Mind Control
“For me, things are a toss-up between Mind Control and Zandon. Both are horses with very promising race histories — Mind Control has won four races at the Aqueduct (three of which were graded), and Zandon has placed top three in his seven most recent Grade 1 and/or 2 starts. If I had to choose between one of the two, I think I lean a bit more toward Zandon for a couple of reasons. He very clearly is a horse with a lot of potential and race power, demonstrated by his three Kentucky Derby prep entries (one of which he won and another of which he placed top three). Zandon also is a three-year-old who has experience racing against stiff competition, particularly within his age division; loyal Paddy’s Picks readers will remember races featuring the likes of Epicenter, Taiba, Cyberknife and Rich Strike, all of whom Zandon has raced at one time or another. I think Zandon is an exciting option for this race, because it isn’t a question of how he will do, it’s how WELL he will do.
But to emphasize, this could still very easily be Mind Control’s race. While it is not confirmed whether his name is indicative of a tactic he uses on other competitors to boost his odds, his training and race experience are just as impressive as Zandon’s. Mind Control’s trainer Todd Pletcher is a force to be reckoned with, having won two Kentucky Derbys, three Belmont Stakes and five Cigar Miles over the course of his career. Not to mention Mind Control’s familiarity with the track and experience running in this specific race and those comparable … he could best Zandon and show him you shouldn’t discount the old guys.”
In Hindsight: I’m normally pretty harsh on guests who pick two horses and win, but Courtney provided extensive reasoning for Mind Control and deserves credit. All of that reasoning was alarmingly sound as well, as Pletcher’s success and the horse’s recent form at a mile were both excellent reasons to support him. Excellent analysis by a criminally underrated Paddy’s Picks guest.
Owen Roche
I want to prepare readers for an equine opine by Owen Roche that isn’t a nightmarishly Joycian tangent. It doesn’t begin with a reference to a 1980s MTA ad campaign and end with a cryptic homage to Arthurian folklore. It’s actually fairly normal. He makes a pick, cracks a few sports jokes, gets a little distracted by his own wordplay and eventually wraps it up in a single paragraph. Prepare yourself.
Owen’s Pick: 7- Mind Control
“Ready to get my heart broken and extend my winless streak: Steve Cohen properties have a less-than-stellar reputation for closing things out down the stretch. Mind Control, thankfully, is a notable exception. The come-from-behind, win-by-a-nose journey-horse has enough intangibles to make Billy Beane blush — and a fairytale ending within reach. MC is rested, tested, and will not be bested, racing into shagadelic retirement the same day half sister White Hot Gold takes up the torch in her debut. Mind Control heats up when the going gets tough, and a heartwarming moment for the ages is on the line. I Feel That Fire.”
In Hindsight: In his shortest Pick for Paddy ever, Owen also notched his first victory after 10 attempts. Many guests broke their winless streaks in this year’s Cigar Mile, as Mind Control had a catchy name and plenty of experience to attract bettors. But a win for Owen is more surprising than almost any other, as one of this site’s most iconic guests has made a career of putting in as much effort as possible without ever focusing on the actual objective of the exercise. He hasn’t been trying to win all this time — he’s been working toward something greater in terms of either profundity or senselessness or both at once. I sincerely hope incidental success doesn’t get in the way of his incomprehensible quest.
Evan Vollbrecht
Usually, Owen’s Equine Opine wraps up Paddy’s Picks guest articles, as I’d rather tie up a 9,000-word article with a question mark instead of a pretty bow. But a challenger to Owen’s hatred of brevity has boldly stepped into the arena, as debuting guest Evan Vollbrecht provided intricate, sophisticated, often wrong analyses of every single runner in the race. To wit:
Evan’s Pick: 6- Outlier
“Well, it only took two years of asking, but here I am with my debut analysis. The lineup sounds pretty tame this time around, so it’ll be interesting to see how we guests will choose a winner in the absence of our favorite metric (silly names). In the past I’ve relied entirely on a visual vibe check to pick out strong contenders, but this time is different — not only have I been looking at numbers, I’ve even had a go at pretending to understand them! As for whether this is an improvement or a travesty, you be the judge. To wit:
Outlier looks to have the lowest odds, which makes absolutely no sense to me — his recent performance has been excellent. He’s finished second in his last three races, one of which was on (I think) the very same track as Saturday’s stakes. With the benefits of recent practice and familiar environs, I’m betting he’ll live up to his name on the Cigar Mile. He’s my first place pick.
Zandon is the clear favorite, and one glance at his track record will tell you why. Considered a rising star among his contemporaries, he’s already getting interviews like he’s won the race. I refuse to root for him — it’s boring to cheer on the favorite — but if I was betting, I’d put my money where my mouth isn’t, and wager on him to win. He’s my begrudging second place pick.
Mind Control has a good history at Aqueduct and several wins this year, but he’s six years old now, and like many an aging stallion, he can’t quite keep it up. He’ll finish, but it might take him a while. Third or fourth place.
Get Her Number has had consistent strong performance in shorter races, but although he starts off hot with a lot of energy, I’m not sure he has the stamina to avoid blowing his lead too early. Third or fourth place.
Double Crown is, in my opinion, entirely unremarkable. I think he and Outlier have the same livery, which is just going to make things confusing. If he does anything of note in this race, it will be to spite me. Fifth place, or whatever.
White Abarrio is the most underwhelming of all the horses to me, so I have no clue why his odds are as high as they are — especially for a gray horse. Maybe there’s more to proper horse-racing analysis than a brief google search and vibes? Nah, last place for sure.”
In Hindsight: In Paragraph 2, Evan expressed confusion about Outlier’s long odds. In Paragraph The Last One, he suggested that horse racing analysis may be more complicated than a brief Google search and vibes. Growth in real time is a beautiful thing.