When the gates open for the 2023 Saudi Cup, 13 highly talented horses will emerge to begin what should hopefully be an exciting race. For two minutes, these horses will be untethered from their owners and trainers and bound only to their riders, the best from around the world. That’s what I’m choosing to focus on.
In truth, I struggled with the decision to provide analysis for this race on Paddy’s Picks. Political and social issues in Saudi Arabia are gravely serious and the monarchy’s attempts to sanitize its global image through high-profile sporting events are shamelessly transparent. But Taiba doesn’t know about any of that, does he?
Yes, every single horseman in attendance at the Saudi Cup is aware that they are in some way compromising themselves by chasing a $20 million purse funded by a highly corrupt government. But at the end of the day, horse racing is ultimately made possible by its equine competitors. They’re not the ones that fail drug tests, nor are they the ones complicit in promoting tyrannical regimes.
If outside circumstances are ignored, this year’s Saudi Cup features one of the most interesting, diverse fields I’ve ever analyzed. From a sporting perspective, it’s difficult to ask for anything better. It is paramount that this remains the core of my coverage, as any attempt to divert attention away from the horses will inevitably cheapen the event with the deeds of embittered men. Let’s take a closer look.
King Abdulaziz, Race 8
Saudi Cup (G1) for Four-Year-Olds and Upward, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 12:35 p.m. EST, Saturday, February 25
1- Cafe Pharoah (Post Position: 13)
Distance is a serious issue for this Japanese star. At a mile on dirt, he’s repeatedly demonstrated that he can run with the best and win, having defeated the likes of Sodashi at that distance. But any attempt to stretch out further has proven disastrous, giving his past performances a feast-or-famine appearance with seven wins and no show finishes in 13 starts. He hasn’t raced since October, when he did just enough to win a slogging stakes at Morioka, but has run his entire career off of layoffs, so there shouldn’t be too much concern about his form. It’s just a matter of assessing his ability at 1 ⅛ miles at relatively short odds on the morning line.
2- Country Grammer (Post Position: 10)
He came about as close to a Saudi Cup victory as possible last year, but underdog and fellow runner Emblem Road defended his home track well. Now a six-year-old, this Baffert trainee seems to be a contender again this year, but there are issues. Toward the end of his 2022 season, he did seem to take a step back in form. There’s no shame in getting blown out by Flightline, but a dull effort against Defunded in the G1 Awesome Again probably should have raised some alarms. He bounced back in December with a strong win in the G2 San Antonio, but the quality of that field was wanting. Frankie Dettori has not yet lost aboard this one and he nearly won the Saudi Cup last year off a massive layoff. It just would have been nice to seem him enter this event a little sharper, though I may be judging him too harshly as an American shipper.
3- Crown Pride (Jpn) (Post Position: 3)
Americans should remember this one, as his little light show on the front end of last year’s Kentucky Derby likely set up the perfect storm that led to Rich Strike’s nonsensical victory. If speed kills, this colt’s deadly and carried on with his front-running ways in three more Japanese stakes races late in the 2022 season. He seemed to be improving in each start despite coming up short in all three. In the G1 Champions Cup in December, he was leading 100 yards out but gave it up in the final strides to fellow runner Jun Light Bolt, who simply wasn’t going to be denied after a furious rally from midpack. If bettors are backing this runner off that performance, they’re betting on a favorable pace scenario and natural development going into his four-year-old debut. I can’t rule out that he has improved with age, but I do have concerns about a hot pace scenario. Fellow runner Panthalassa is likely going to go to the front as well.
4- Emblem Road (Post Position: 8)
He’s the only Saudi king I’ll bow to, a Kentucky-bred colt by Quality Road that took the racing world by storm with his upset win in this race last year. Going into the 2022 running as a prohibitive long shot, he had done little more in his career than beat up on the local talent in Saudi Arabia. But the list of horses that he defeated in that one Saudi Cup field warrants bettors’ eternal respect: Country Grammer, Mandaloun, Mishriff, Midnight Bourbon, Art Collector, Marche Lorraine. It’s a hit list that most horses couldn’t conquer over the course of a career, and he did it with one deep-closing trip down the center.
Since his multi-million dollar victory, the five-year-old has only raced twice. An ill-fated trip to France last July proved that he wasn’t a turf runner, though he did show a little flash against some G3 Europeans. His next race wasn’t until last month in a dominant win at home in an allowance race, one in which he missed the start and circled the entire 19-horse field to win by four lengths. It’s time to ride this carousel again — how good is he?
5- Geoglyph (Jpn) (Post Position: 12)
If a turf runner beats me in the Saudi Cup, it’s a result I can accept. This four-year-old was in solid form early in his 2022 season but seemed to struggle in October and December behind Equinox and Romantic Warrior, international turf monsters in the making. He needs to make a lot of successful adjustments as he makes both his four-year-old debut and dirt debut in a $20 million horse race.
6- Jun Light Bolt (Jpn) (Post Position: 6)
This horse has simply been a delight to watch as of late. Having spent his entire career on the turf, it’s a wonder that his connections didn’t discover his affinity for dirt sooner. The rising Japanese runner rattled off three straight victories on dirt while stepping up in class each time to end his 2022 season, and he saved his best performance for last. In the G1 Champions Cup at Chukyo in December, he settled into his usual midpack position but was completely engulfed in multiple rows of traffic well into the stretch. He had to check in order to get clear but unleashed a furious rally with less than a furlong to go, catching speedy fellow runner Crown Pride by a neck at the wire. Without all those issues, it’s feasible that he would have defeated that foe by multiple lengths, an encouraging sign as he steps up in class again for his six-year-old debut.
7- Panthalassa (Jpn) (Post Position: 1)
His dirt experience is minimal but the plan is still clear for the 2021 G1 Dubai Turf winner. This Japanese runner lives on the front end and has not been afraid to open up massive leads in turf races in an attempt to steal them at long odds. This nearly worked in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in October against budding superhorse Equinox, who had to make up more than 10 lengths in the stretch to catch him. Together with runners like Crown Pride, he should ensure a fast pace, though that scenario and his lack of experience on the surface make him an unlikely win option. He still maintains a class edge, if you’re into that sort of thing.
8- Remorse (IRE) (Post Position: 7)
He’s one of just three Irish-bred runners in the race and is also the only one based out of the United Arab Emirates, which makes him difficult to compare to the rest of the field. He was clearly a step slow in last year’s Dubai World Cup when he finished sixth behind fellow runner Country Grammer, and he’s only raced twice since. Both races were at Meydan as well, a cheap stakes that he won and a G2 Dubai World Cup prep where he disappointed, finishing third by 8 ½ lengths. Though it may sound strange, it seems like his move to Saudi Arabia may be a way to escape some of the better runners in his home base. He’ll need to improve anyway.
9- Scotland Yard (Post Position: 4)
I’m extremely interested in this one. Though he’s clearly nowhere near usurping Emblem Road, his half-brother, as Saudi Arabia’s wonder horse, this colt has impressed in three starts at King Abdulaziz since moving out of Steve Asmussen’s barn halfway through his three-year-old season. He broke his maiden on the last day of 2022 before taking the King Faisal Cup two weeks later in impressive fashion over Great Scot. The King Faisal is the same race that fellow runner Emblem Road used as a prep in 2022, while also defeating Great Scot, before his upset Saudi Cup victory. In 2021, Great Scot won the King Faisal before finishing third in the Saudi Cup.
On Jan. 28, another two weeks later, this runner entered another massive field in a $400,000 stakes race at 1 ¼ miles. He passed the distance test with flying colors, dominating the field by 10 ¼ lengths in track-record time. The runner-up, Electability, was a promising three-year-old in the U.S. last year. His competitors recently have been better than many may assume and he’s pummeled them. Don’t be surprised.
10- Taiba (Post Position: 2)
Occam’s razor can be a heartless tool in horse racing. For all of the research a bettor can do on this race, which features a plethora of angles and interesting horses from around the world, it is inescapable that the favorite is extremely formidable. The only blemishes on this colt’s record are a result of his precocity, as he qualified for the Kentucky Derby and G1 Haskell on talent alone without having sufficient experience. He returned in September as a more mature horse and easily handled a tough field in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby. After he took his mandatory beating from Flightline in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he cut back to seven furlongs and easily won the G1 Malibu in December.
Though he can win at shorter distances, it appears that this Baffert trainee is built for nine furlongs, a distance he relished on several occasions last year. If he can return fresh off a short layoff, he looms as the main threat.
11- Vin de Garde (Jpn) (Post Position: 9)
This Japanese turf runner hasn’t won a race since October 2020, but he has come dangerously close to winning the G1 Dubai Turf in two straight years. It’s impossible to gauge how any of that form will transfer to the dirt, making him a long shot by necessity.
12- Lagertha Rhyme (IRE) (Post Position: 11)
One of two mares in the race, this five-year-old rattled off seven straight wins against much weaker competition before finally meeting her match against fellow runner Sunset Flash last time out. In any case, she’s a little difficult to support because of the obscene class hike.
13- Sunset Flash (IRE) (Post Position: 5)
Like fellow runner Lagertha Rhyme, this mare has dominated Saudi females for some time now and has not finished outside the top two in over a year. But defeating that level of competition means very little in a race like this and she isn’t tested at the distance either.
Order: 9 10 6 4
I think this race is going to feature a lot of early speed, chiefly from Crown Pride and Panthalassa, which could set up for runners coming off the pace. Whether it’s stalking or closing, I think the winner is going to come down the center of the track in the stretch, a very common way to win at King Abdulaziz. There are plenty of competitors who fit this description, and it’s taken some time to narrow things down. But after all my analysis, I keep going back to a long shot.
If Emblem Road’s upset victory last year is to be taken seriously, then the Saudi horses and their prep races deserve respect among bettors. If this condition is accepted, then I believe Scotland Yard is entering this race in even better form than his half-brother was last year. This colt has come alive since moving to Saudi Arabia, winning decisively with a variety of running styles against more competitive fields than one might assume. At 20-1 on the morning line, I’m willing to take a chance.
Taiba is an obvious contender with superb American qualifications and a stalking style that should prove beneficial in a race that will likely feature a hot pace. The distance is right as well, but he’s not a world beater and I don’t believe he should be treated as such. I’ll include him in my exotics, but I would feel foolish taking him to win in such deep waters.
Jun Light Bolt is the likeliest of the Japanese runners to make a solid showing here and he’s been a delight to watch since switching to the dirt late last year. Japanese connections haven’t had much success in the Saudi Cup yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this one broke through. He’s such a charmer and his win in the G1 Champions Cup was one of the most impressive prep performances from a visual standpoint.
Emblem Road enters this race in an effort to defend his title and I believe he earned his win last year. That being said, he’s only raced twice in the past year and may have to take down an even stronger field to repeat. His late-closing style will likely work again, so I’m not ruling out a minor prize.
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