Month: March 2022

Road to the Derby: Sunland Derby Analysis

I don’t think the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is coming out of any preps at Sunland Park. If not for Mine That Bird’s historic win in 2009, I would posit that no Derby winner will ever come out of Sunland Park. But upset victories like that are exactly why we need to pay attention. Long shots on the biggest stages have to come from somewhere, after all.

I’m actually a big fan of this race from a handicapping standpoint, and my logic is fairly straightforward. At less prestigious tracks like this one, I consider it unwise to accept obvious favorites. Obvious contenders at Sunland might be relatively talented, but they’re also there for a reason. There are no Secretariats in New Mexico. Let’s take a look. read more

Road to the Derby: Louisiana Derby Analysis

Though the Dubai World Cup was fun earlier this afternoon, the Louisiana Derby is still my focus on this Saturday of racing. But in a way, I’m hoping that the headline from Fair Grounds after today will not concern this race but the one preceding it. 

In the 11th race in Louisiana this evening, the champion filly Echo Zulu will make her three-year-old debut in the Fair Grounds Oaks, a prep for the Kentucky Oaks in May. Of all the three-year-olds in this year’s class, I have to admit that she’s the one I’m currently most excited to see. If my predictions are correct for both feature races, Fair Grounds may be a little chalky tonight.  read more

Fordham Feud: Dubai World Cup Guest Analysis

This may not turn into a recurring series, but at this exact moment, I happen to have cooperative friends and a competitive race. To celebrate the 2022 running of the Dubai World Cup, six guests found time in their busy schedules to provide analysis for Paddy’s Picks. Some know what they’re doing and some are trying their best.

At Fordham, I’m one of the few students who spend a significant amount of time on both of the university’s campuses, Lincoln Center in Manhattan and Rose Hill in the Bronx. It’s inevitable that I got to know some people in both places along the way, and what better way to keep friends than to pit them against one another?  read more

Road to the Derby: Tampa Bay Derby Analysis

My spring break began with a New Jersey snowstorm and a sleepover with a Labrador Retriever. When I agreed to stay in my friend’s Morristown home for a night en route to the Poconos, I wasn’t aware that my designated couch also belonged to Jake the dog. 

I reasoned that Jake would at least protect me from the family’s cats, to which I’m extremely allergic, but I was quickly proven wrong when Zayn the American Shorthair jumped on my chest at three in the morning. Jake just whined that his spot had been stolen. read more

Road to the Derby: Fountain of Youth Stakes Analysis

Though the New York contingent is stepping up its game, the 2022 running of the Fountain of Youth is still probably the most competitive Derby prep this weekend. There are plenty of runners coming out of allowance competition while the others are either coming off of long layoffs or recovering from them. There’s a lot to like here.

As a prep to the Florida Derby, this is a very helpful race, but since 2000, only one winner of the Fountain of Youth has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Orb in 2013). I’m not sure if the winner of this year’s Derby is in these ranks, but they won’t get there if they don’t get out of the starting gate in March. read more

Road to the Derby: San Felipe Stakes Analysis

In last year’s San Felipe, Life Is Good established himself as a potential Triple Crown winner with one of the most formidable victories in recent Derby prep memory. Though an injury kept him out of all three races, he eventually returned and is now the best dirt horse in the country.

This year’s running of the San Felipe does not seem to feature anyone as strong; in fact, most of the runners are either fixer uppers or untested at route distances. But hey, as long as Baffert horses aren’t collecting Derby points, I’m content with the California racing scene. Let’s take a quick peek and get out of here. read more

Road to the Derby: Gotham Stakes Analysis

The New York division of three-year-olds is finally picking up a little in this year’s running of the Gotham Stakes. With a handful of runners shipping north from Florida and a few more coming out of allowance and statebred competition, the field has a hastily put together feel that I can actually appreciate.

One of my last trips to Aqueduct was for the 2017 running of the Gotham, when J Boys Echo upset El Areeb before getting crushed on the Triple Crown trail. It may not be the most valuable Derby prep in March, but it has a place in my upbringing, and that has to count for something. Let’s get into it. read more