Anyone catch that race two weeks ago?
For those of you who invested four months of reading into my “Road to the Derby” series, I have no apology or explanation for what happened on the first Saturday in May. All I can say is that horse racing can be wildly unpredictable. In order to pick Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby, I would’ve required divine intervention or complete abandon of reason. But some people won money, didn’t they?
Concerning the owners of Rich Strike and their decision to skip the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, I think it’s a cowardly move that also makes sense. It’s an unwritten rule that a healthy Derby winner must run in the Preakness, but it’s also clear to most that he would’ve been hard-pressed to repeat. As my analysis is about to make clear, there’s a very likely winner here, one that Rich Strike should be familiar with. Let’s get into it.
Editor’s Note: Apologies for the belated publish time. I’m currently sitting at my graduation ceremony at Fordham University.
Pimlico. Race 13
Preakness Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 3/16 Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 7:01 p.m. EST
1- Simplification
Everyone said that this runner was vastly undervalued on the tote board before the Derby, and everyone was right. At 46-1 odds, he didn’t necessarily improve to finish fourth, but simply managed to run his race on a day when most of his competitors regressed. As a deep closer, he couldn’t have possibly asked for a better pace scenario, one that Rich Strike used to win the race with no prior qualifications. On a positive note, he might get another hot pace to work with in this one, and there won’t be nearly as much traffic to deal with in a nine-horse field.
2- Creative Minister
Don’t count him out too quickly. With just three starts under his belt and little more than an allowance victory on Derby Day to qualify him as a contender in this field, it’s pretty easy to dismiss this colt outright. But I wouldn’t be too hasty. I don’t know if he’s going to win, but he has a few things going for him. In three straight starts, he’s consistently improved and seems to be learning on the track as he rises through the ranks. Meanwhile, an allowance victory that may scare away the class handicappers was actually more competitive than most graded stakes races in the country, as he defeated a field featuring five runners with prior stakes experience and at least three horses once considered for the Kentucky Derby.
The final knock against him is that he’s benefitted from some lucky trips that are inflating his speed figures, and while that’s true, I also see the consistency of the good trips as a strong sign. Some horses who suffer from terrible luck are destined to find more trouble, but it goes the other way too. Some horses simply know how to get into a good position, and his affinity for finding the rail is well-suited to his post position. I don’t know if that will be enough to get him in the winner’s circle here, but a minor prize wouldn’t shock me.
3- Fenwick
After watching months of Kentucky Derby analysis burn to ashes in the wake of Rich Strike’s Derby victory, I thought I would be scared to nonchalantly toss any competitor in the Preakness. Fortunately, this colt is helping me regain my courage. Apparently, talent isn’t the issue; he simply has the heart of a pea. After some truly disastrous maiden starts, he finally got a victory with an easy lead on the front end at Tampa Bay Downs. But in the G1 Blue Grass next time out, he completely folded again after settling into a prime position behind the leaders on the rail. He doesn’t belong here.
4- Secret Oath
She deserves to be here. A very impressive show finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby proved to be exactly what she needed to prepare for the Oaks. Though her win in Kentucky was aided by a fast early pace, her powerful move on the outside seems suited to this race as well. The speed figures haven’t been as strong for her as they have been for some of the colts in this race, but they weren’t as strong in 2020 either when Swiss Skydiver beat Authentic. She’s squarely in the mix.
5- Early Voting
Chad Brown seems to have found a strategy to his liking on the Triple Crown trail as of late. This colt is one in a long line that has qualified for the Kentucky Derby, only for Brown to withdraw him in order to focus on the Preakness. It worked in 2017 with Cloud Computing, and bettors seem to agree that Brown has another live one this year. His runner-up finish in the G2 Wood Memorial is more of a credit to the winner, Mo Donegal, who did just enough to nail him at the wire. The plan for this race is obvious, as this runner has never shown any sort of rating ability. The problem is that there are others who may join him on the front end, ensuring a fast pace that will benefit some of the other contenders.
6- Happy Jack
He didn’t belong in the Kentucky Derby and he doesn’t belong here. Of the bottom 10 runners in the opening quarter mile of the Derby, three of them went on to finish in the top four and seven of them finished in the top 10. After starting the race in 18th, his 14th place finish on a day where every closer seemed to show up should be telling.
7- Armagnac
When this colt gets a comfortable lead early, as he did in his maiden victory in January and allowance victory two weeks ago, he looks incredible. But against tougher fields in the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby, it became clear that he’s too dependent on the lead to trust in a big spot like this. Expect him to push fellow runner Early Voting, but don’t expect much more.
8- Epicenter
He wasn’t the story of the Kentucky Derby, but he was without a doubt the rightful winner. It’s true that Rich Strike may have won the race, but Epicenter ran it. When he moved boldly from eighth to third while traveling in between horses, something he had never had to do before, it should’ve been enough to win. When he found room behind the leaders and managed to steer around them to take a commanding lead, it definitely should’ve been enough. When he put away Zandon, the best deep closer in the race on a day when they were all charging, the result shouldn’t have been in question. He and jockey Joel Rosario didn’t see Rich Strike sneak up the rail until it was too late. Horse racing can produce nonsensical results like no other sport in the world, but at some point, reason always prevails. He’s unquestionably the pick.
9- Skippylongstocking
Things got a little intense on that last entry, didn’t they? Let’s lighten the mood. The best-named horse in this field did manage to build on an impressive optional claiming win in the G2 Wood Memorial last time out, finishing third and falling a few spots short of Derby contention. He didn’t run as well as Mo Donegal or fellow runner Early Voting that day, but in order to win that race from a closing position, Mo Donegal had to run his very best race, one that this colt could never achieve. His advantage going into this start is that Early Voting and other leaders won’t get it to themselves, which could open the door for midpack runners to get a more reasonable chance to improve their position in the late stages. Maybe he picks up a minor prize.
Order: 8 4 2 1
Epicenter is simply too tough to go against here. It’s boring to take the chalk, but any handicapper with eyes should be able to conclude that he’s going to be incredibly difficult to take down. If any horse can do it though, I think it’s the filly, as Secret Oath seems to be in stellar condition with more to show as the year goes on. Creative Minister is vaguely intriguing to me as an outsider in this race, and I may end up including him in my exotic bets. Simplification ran well in the Derby, but I’m fading him a little because I felt that he could have done a little more under the circumstances.
Con-grad-ulations, may your shiny new degree bring you all the betting luck in the world! 🙂