The handicapping adages about the Belmont Stakes are so plentiful and unique that the race nearly qualifies as its very own branch within the sport. The demanding 1 ½-mile distance is the unmistakable defining feature of the third leg of the Triple Crown, and because the horses have never run that far (and will likely never run that far again), theories abound about the way to win it.
Some say it’s a jockey’s race. If that’s the case, long shot Barber Road has the advantage this year, as his champion rider Joel Rosario is the only one in the field with two wins in the Belmont (Tonalist in 2014 and Sir Winston in 2019). Others say the pedigrees tell the tale. It’s no coincidence that three horses in this field descend from Tapit, the sire of last year’s Belmont winner, Essential Quality. Some like closers while others like front runners, and pace plays a part more than it does at any other traditional distance.
The point is that betting the Belmont Stakes is hard, as it requires a good deal of intuition and knowledge of the Triple Crown trail. After two races in the month of May, it’s almost poetic that the final race is also the most grueling. In years when a horse is going for the three-race sweep, it invariably proves to be an obstacle. In years like this one, it remains an iconic, historic, endlessly puzzling race. Let’s take a look at the field.
For analysis of all 13 races on Belmont’s Saturday card, click here.
Belmont, Race 11
Belmont Stakes (G1) for Three-Year-Olds, 1 ½ Miles on the Dirt
Post Time: 6:44 p.m. EST
1- We the People
I think we’re past the point of calling this colt a precocious runner. Outside of a poor performance in the G1 Arkansas Derby, when he failed to get near the pace and traveled extremely wide around the first turn, he’s been perfect in three dominant starts. His 10 ¼-length wire-to-wire victory in the G3 Peter Pan makes him an obvious contender, and he’ll likely get the lead to himself in this one like he did that day. The distance may be the only issue.
2- Skippylongstocking
I don’t want to get too excited because he’s still strictly an outsider, but as 20-1 shots go, I don’t hate him at all. Since Jan. 1, this colt has improved in five straight starts despite consistently stepping up in class. In his G1 debut in the Preakness Stakes last time out, he still took a step forward despite getting a nightmarish trip, traveling wide throughout and encountering significant traffic in the stretch. Saffie Joseph seems to be done with Junior Alvarado and turns to Manny Franco to ride here, which is a lateral move at best. There are stronger runners in the race but a minor prize isn’t out of the question if he continues moving in the right direction.
3- Nest
She’s undoubtedly a special filly. Her three starts in 2022 have all been great and she seems to get better each time. Her runner-up finish in the G1 Kentucky Oaks can be excused in part as well, as she seemed bottled up on the rail and never had a chance to catch the winner. Between 2007 Belmont runner-up Curlin as her sire and 1992 winner A.P. Indy as her damsire, her pedigree also strongly suggests an aptitude for longer distances. The problem is that I’m finding more issues than I would like for a horse that will likely be overbet. The speed figures are a little light, and Secret Oath demonstrated in the Preakness that the best fillies this year may truly be a half step below the best colts. It’s also concerning to see Irad Ortiz leave to ride Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher’s other runner in the race. If any trainer can prepare a filly for the Belmont, it’s Pletcher, who won it in 2007 with Rags to Riches, but she will need to take a step forward.
4- Rich Strike
There was no logical way to name this colt as the Kentucky Derby winner before the event, but that happens sometimes. The only justification one could find for him to win the Belmont is the fact that he’s the Derby winner, and I can’t confidently say that he’ll ever be able to repeat that performance. He’s not the same horse he was in April, but that Derby victory wasn’t purely a result of improvement; he also benefited from an absurdly fast pace scenario and a perfect rail-skimming trip. He’s going to take too much money.
5- Creative Minister
I have to admit that I’m charmed by this colt. Before the G1 Preakness, I said that he quietly had a chance to make some noise and he did, running well to finish third at 10-1 odds. He seems to have a knack for finding a good striking position, and in a sport where trips decide all, that’s a great skill to have. He continues to move in the right direction and deserves to be a contender. All that being said, he has raced twice since May 7 and will now have to compete at the longest distance he’ll likely ever have to run.
6- Mo Donegal
Ever since his G2 Wood Memorial victory in April, this colt has stayed in the back of my mind as a very interesting option for the Belmont Stakes. It’s a shame everyone seems to be on the same page now, as he’ll likely go off as the favorite in this event. He has the sort of running style that suggests he could run forever if he needed to, and has not yet come up empty in the stretch. Even when compromised by the far inside post and an extremely wide closing trip in the Kentucky Derby, he still managed to finish well for fifth. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to skip the Preakness also makes this race seem more like a target. With Irad Ortiz returning to ride, everything seems like it’s coming together.
7- Golden Glider
This colt would require several excuses to be considered a contender in this field. Despite running in three Derby preps, he never finished better than fourth in any of them and didn’t earn enough points to qualify. He earned a spot in this race by winning a photo finish for second in the G2 Peter Pan, 10 ¼ lengths behind fellow runner We the People. Maybe he’s been waiting for a dry track, something he hasn’t raced over since February, and maybe the distance is right, as his field-topping 337 Tomlinson rating suggests. But that’s a lot of mental gymnastics for me.
8- Barber Road
As one of the quintessential closers in this year’s Kentucky Derby field, I’m not surprised this colt ran well to finish sixth that day. Despite an absurdly wide trip from last place, the pace was hot enough for him to make up solid ground and end up one length behind fellow runner Mo Donegal at the wire. The Belmont Stakes isn’t always as friendly to closers as one might think, but he’s still getting better and Joel Rosario is a significant jockey upgrade.
Order: 6 5 2 1
I really wish there was more pace in the race, but it feels like Mo Donegal is sitting on a massive performance for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. In a race at this distance, bettors should look for a dependable stretch-running option, and he always delivers. I’m a little nervous that Creative Minister is doing too much too soon at this point in his career, but it’s clear that he’s still not done improving. In a race with moderate fractions, it may not hurt to be closer to the pace either. It may seem insane for me to toss Nest and Rich Strike in favor of Skippylongstocking for third place, but I honestly think he deserves consideration at a big price. If everything goes right early, We the People will be in the best position of anyone in the field on the lead. But having the opportunity to wire the field is not the same as actually doing it, especially at this distance.
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