Month: November 2021

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Analysis

This is admittedly a crowded article, but it’s simply a testament to the enthusiasm my Fordham Observer colleagues bring to the sport of racing. Unlike almost every other guest article on Paddy’s Picks this weekend, this has absolutely no intrinsic value as an analytic piece. But damn it if it doesn’t have style.

Maddie Sandholm, the Layout Editor/Assistant Sports Social Media Editor/Contributing Writer of The Fordham Observer, returns with prose that betrays her background in visual arts. Creative Director Roxanne Cubero’s prose is… also good. Meanwhile, Opinions Editor Clara Gerlach, Copy Editor Emily Ellis, and News Editor Allie Stofer all make exceedingly promising debuts as valuable contributors to a very silly premise. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Fillies Analysis

To properly understand the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies this year, the input of these three guests is paramount. In fact, missing this article may account for thousands in losses for anyone naive enough to overlook it. All three guests stayed up for nights on end deciphering this puzzle, and their findings are nothing short of astounding.

At this point, any loyal Paddy’s Picks reader should be familiar with Jill “Rice Dicer” Rice and Gillian Russo, who have been enthusiastic guests on this website since its inception. Their work is readily available across the majority of my past big race coverage, and their talents in the racing world and in all of their other efforts are common knowledge. read more

Casual Bet: BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, as it is seen by handicappers and casual bettors alike, is about as easy as a Rubik’s Cube to figure out. Who better to solve the puzzle than some of the overthinking graduates of Regis High School?

Chris Murray, once known as a “Twice a Day” on Paddy’s Picks, knows absolutely nothing about horse racing. In fact, he holds a strong pet theory that horses aren’t real, though I won’t pretend to understand the intricate nuances of his argument. One might expect such inexperienced analysis to resemble the comments of a five-year-old, but Chris consistently shoots for the stars in everything he does. His stuff is suitable for second graders at the very least. read more

Breeders’ Cup Friday Master List

First, I owe my readers a long overdue apology. In my defense, I really thought things were going well before hunger, friendship, the nation of Mongolia, unexpectedly compelling persuasion, and a fair bit of alcohol intervened.

At this time last year, my analysis for the Friday card of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup was ready and available to readers. My guests were all accounted for and the rest of my picks were essentially figured out for Saturday. All I had to do was write. 

I was feeling extraordinarily confident as I stood on the precipice of something great. Sure, it would cost me a Friday night of galavanting, but what was one night? This was the Breeders’ Cup, the sporting event I loved most in this world, and I was projecting it to be one of the most successful weekends in this website’s history.  read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

I’m glad this race is on last on Breeders’ Cup Friday, as it is the most interesting of the juvenile races. A very deep field of juvenile turfers seems poised to put on a wild race, and picking four runners still isn’t enough to narrow down the contenders.

Sometimes, talented turf runners at two have a habit of disappearing later in their career. Therefore, it’s important to appreciate these precocious stars while they’re in the spotlight.

Race 10

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) for Two-Year-Olds, 1 Mile on the Turf read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

The quality of this field dips precipitously with the withdrawal of favorite Jack Christopher, but there’s still plenty to like in a race that often features future Kentucky Derby runners. Last year’s running, the first meeting between Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, was a classic before the Classic was even on their horizons.

I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel here, but there are a few long shots that interest me underneath. It’s always a little scary to put those outsiders on top, but if the mood strikes me, readers should know that I may end up putting a little money on an improbable runner or two. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The scariest part of any Breeders’ Cup is the race where none of the contenders seem good enough to win. The field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf isn’t the strongest but it’s deep, as 14 runners will try to improve on the world stage. It’s a very difficult race to figure out and will likely be the one that busts everyone’s multi-race bets.

I’m choosing to embrace the chaos a little with a bit of an outsider underneath, but I’m a little uncomfortable with the fact that I ended up picking most of the logical runners in what may end up being an illogical race. Such is the Breeders’ Cup. read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

What some may see as an easy romp for Echo Zulu may actually prove to be an entertaining, if compact, running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. There are definitely a few runners in the field that don’t hold a candle to the precocious Asmussen filly, but there are a few with merit that may be overlooked come post time.

All that being said, she might win by eight.

Race 7
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) for Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

1- Desert Dawn

She showed very little scooting up the rail for show last time out in the G2 Chandelier. A stylish maiden win at Del Mar two starts back was nice, but she’ll need to improve dramatically to have a chance here.  read more

Full Analysis: 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

As if 12-horse turf sprints aren’t challenging enough for handicappers, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint combines the intricacies of such a race with the unpredictability of two-year-olds.

Last year, this race wasn’t much of a challenge to figure out when Golden Pal proved himself far superior to any runner on either side of the globe. But Wesley Ward has three runners in this one and there are 11 more beside them, making this one of the tougher races of the entire two-day event. At least the value is there, and bettors would be well-advised to go looking for it. read more