The Go-To Second Opinion at the Track
Welcome back to Paddy’s Picks for the Saturday card at the Breeders’ Cup. No quirky anecdotes today; we all have to focus. Every article published today can be found here as soon as it’s released. Best of luck to everyone!
Filly and Mare Sprint w/ Emma Moquin and Joan Moquin
Dirt Mile w/ George McKnight and Owen Roche
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is one of my favorite races every year, and was actually one of my first big scores when Caleb’s Posse won the race in 2011. This year’s running doesn’t look nearly as profitable, however.
Besides an emphatic favorite, there are some very talented runners in the field, including a a few rising stars in the division. But to argue against Life Is Good seems pretty futile, and I don’t intend on doing so.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt
My two prize pupils team up here for some solid analysis of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. I’ve been a fan of Emma for as long as I’ve known her, and ever since Niko drunkenly fell out of that bush and asked me for change all those years ago, he’s been a steadfast friend as well.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf
Niko: I don’t hate Going to Vegas because of the jockey trainer combo. My concern with this horse is that’s she’s only raced at this distance once. It was a year ago, but it was one of her slower races. Now, she’s gotten better since that point, but can she race this well at that distance?
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, 1 ⅜ Miles on the Turf
She’s now a G1 stakes winner and seems to be rounding into form at the right time, but I have serious doubts about the quality of the field she wired in the Rodeo Drive last time out. Her best chance here is to run this field off their feet, which actually doesn’t seem impossible but is also less likely than it was last time out.
Beyond the name recognition of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, issues abound for this runner. She seems a step slow against these and lacks significant class as an overqualified G3 winner last time out. Moreover, she rarely stretches out in distance and her one attempt at 1 5/16 miles in Europe last year was discouraging. There are better options.
Two retired high school baseball players. Two talented writers with a roughly equivalent passion for The Fordham Observer. Two quirky people with their fair share of misadventures. One Big Ass horse race. Buckle in folks.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on the Dirt
Hi all. It’s been quite some time since my last feature on the Paddy’s Picks blog. I’m glad to be back covering the Breeder’s Cup. I’m analyzing the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. Not the greatest name, but what can you do? Anyway, the post time of this race is 4:19 on Saturday, Nov. 6. Eight horses three years and older are posted to compete for a million dollar purse.
From my mother, Joan Moquin: It’s that time of year again when the air turns crisp, Belmont weather requires a jacket and hot toddy to endure the day’s card and all eyes turn to sunny California for the Breeder’s Cup.
From my sister, Emma Moquin: Very curious. I put Bella Sofia on top for that race, which is a hot take, but I couldn’t pick Gamine for the 1000th time in my life.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint for Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) for Three-Year-Olds and Upward, Five Furlongs on the Turf
The reigning champion in this race has been a little flat in 2021, finishing third in three races in Europe. Trainer Kevin Ryan gave her a similar schedule to the one from 2020 to prepare her, but she hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Her win last year was more a result of fortunate circumstances than her ability, and she’s an easy one to fade this time around.
My technique in Breeders’ Cup races is to find a runner rounding into condition, and this gelding seems razor sharp. His most recent performance in the Betfair Sprint Cup was his first G1 win and he won it with a career-best 120 Timeform Rating. He seems a little more comfortable at six furlongs but has also been very effective at five. I would love to know how she handles turns, but the fact that that’s the primary concern is an encouraging sign.
Any real reader of Paddy’s Picks can predict the direction that I’m going in for this one. But stick around anyway; I’ve been told that I’m at my most entertaining when I’m not trying to be. I won’t even take up too much of your time — there’s not much to go over here.
Reigning champion Gamine has managed to scare away most of her competition, and if she loses, nearly every multi-race bet in the country will collapse on the first leg. For those seeking value, it’s probably best to skip this one and watch.
For the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, the final race of Breeders’ Cup Friday, two veteran guests are being joined by two newcomers making their official debuts. My excitement is palpable as this formidable quartet tackles one of the toughest races on the card.
In nearly two years, Grace Getman and Esme Bleecker-Adams have grown into vaguely unfamiliar horse racing analysts before readers’ eyes. Meanwhile, Corbin Gregg and Kreena Vora are brand new contributors, unsure of their place on this website but eager to learn the ways of the sport.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is an important race every year, as it gives racing fans a very early picture of the possible Kentucky Derby contenders the following year. To properly cover this event in all its glory, here are the thoughts of three people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
Matt Ludington makes his debut on Paddy’s Picks after years of ignorance about its existence. The same hard-working, intelligent pre-med student who thought that The Observer was a sports-only publication is as new to the idea of Paddy’s Picks as he is to the sport of racing itself. Double the confusion, double the fun.
