Belmont Analysis: Thursday, July 2, 2020

This card starts off like a typical Thursday card, but there are some races later in the day that I actually look forward to watching. This is the beginning of a very exciting holiday weekend at the races.

(Note: The ninth race has not yet been added. This will be updated throughout the day.)

Race 1

$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, 1 Mile on the Dirt

It seems as though Belmont’s field sizes are beginning to dry up after an uptick following the pandemic layoff. I identified three main contenders in this seven-horse field, and split some hairs to get them in order:

1- Sharp Starr

She ran very evenly last time out, finishing right alongside fellow runner Calidad in a losing three-way photo for sixth. When two runners run next to one another in the previous race, I like to look for changes when they face one another again. Both are entering their second start off the forced layoff, but Jorge Vargas will be replaced by Jose Ortiz as the rider of this filly. That tells me that Horacio DePaz has a little more faith in his horse this time around, and his statistics stretching out his runners help too.

7- Adriatic Holiday

Barclay Tagg, Sackatoga Stables and Manny Franco team up again for this race, having won the Belmont Stakes together with Tiz the Law last month. Barclay Tagg’s won one race at this meet so far, but he certainly picked the right one. This filly’s only run on dirt twice in four starts, most recently finishing seventh in an open company maiden special weight down at Gulfstream in March. I think the 44 BSF she earned that day is a little deceiving, as Emisael Jaramillo stopped pushing her very early in the stretch run. She’s one of two runners in this race that have experience routing, having done it on the turf. Abiding by the Law, Manny Franco and Barclay Tagg are 3-for-8 together on the year, and coming off the layoff, she stands to improve stretching out against statebreds at Belmont.

6- Calidad

This filly ran just as well as Sharp Starr in her last start. However, Eric Cancel returns to ride again for Bruce Levine, an 0-for-7 connection this year. She’ll also be trying a longer distance today, and Levine is 3-for-36 when making that switch. Despite being evenly matched with other runners here, the case for a victory is less compelling.

2- La Kara Mia

This sometimes happens in smaller fields. I don’t particularly like this horse, but she’s interesting enough to warrant inclusion, considering her competition. Linda Rice does well with second-time starters, even if she’s not profitable when switching surfaces. Irad Ortiz is a strange addition, because the best jockey at Belmont doesn’t succeed as often with Rice. Still, it can’t hurt, and this filly could improve switching to dirt.

Order: 1 7 6 2

I think there’s solid evidence to suggest that Sharp Starr will improve most in this start. Adriatic Holiday interests me as an overlooked option, while I think Calidad may just repeat her losing performance from last time.

 

Race 2

$25,000 Claiming for NY-Breds, 1 Mile on the Widener Turf

This is a surprisingly competitive field of NY-breds here, a group of hard knocking older horses that still show some life from time to time. They were an interesting bunch to study as I formed an opinion:

8- Catch a Cab

In his last start, this gelding loomed large over the field at the top of stretch before flattening out to finish sixth. In his second start off the layoff, he re-enters statebred company, and Irad Ortiz chooses him over other qualified runners. Michael Maker is extremely effective in second starts off of layoffs (34% in 32 starts), and he’s run races in the past that suggest he’s good enough. The pieces seem to be falling into place here.

9- Nutzforboltz (SCRATCHED)

This gelding has been in statebred allowances for a very long time, and has done admirably well. He showed very little regression in speed figures in his first start off the layoff, but the result was discouraging enough for Rob Atras to drop him slightly to claiming competition. This horse is very qualified in this field, but there’s a very serious problem. Irad Ortiz has ridden this horse in his last three starts, and he must have found something he didn’t like last time and rides Catch a Cab instead. Manny Franco is a competent replacement and this horse can win, but Ortiz’s departure cannot be taken lightly.

1- Mission Command

This horse ran well in his last start, though it may be somewhat deceptive. At the end, the entire field bunched up, and the progress he made in the stretch was mostly done while passing tired horses. Still,  he was overwhelmed that day and gets an easier task. He’ll have to improve in his second start off the layoff, but could be a valuable inclusion underneath.

5- Blue Pigeon

I’m not sure about the quality of races at Tampa Bay Downs, especially as springs turns to summer. However, this horse was once a perennial Belmont runner before losing his form. J K Sweezey took him to Monmouth and Florida, and he slowly began to come to life again. He brings him back to Belmont for this one and recruits top jockey Junior Alvarado. This gelding will have to improve a little, but he could have a say.

Order: 8 9 1 5 (Note: The 9, Nutzforboltz, is scratched.)

Catch a Cab seems pretty tough here, as he appears to be a qualified runner being put in a supreme position to win. Maker is extremely profitable in second starts off of layoffs and Irad Ortiz jumps off of Nutzforboltz, another qualified runner that I have finishing second. Mission Command takes a drop in class which may help him after several ineffectual starts in a row dating back to last year. Blue Pigeon makes his return to New York for J K Sweezey, who doesn’t usually waste his time when shipping a horse north.

 

Race 3

$53,000 Maiden Special Weight for NY-Breds, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

This is a race for three-year-old maidens, but it vaguely reminds me of a juvenile stakes. They’re all lightly raced, and there should be a lot of pace to set up for a proven closer. My top four:

1- Blackjack Davey

This gelding ran an awkward race in his first start, staying near the back of the field before making up meaningless ground in the stretch. However, Linda Rice is notoriously poor with first time starters and extremely successful with maidens in their second starts. She’s also very good when moving her horses from sprints to routes, and she recruits Irad Ortiz to ride for the second time on this card. There’s very solid evidence suggesting that this horse will be better this time around.

7- Jade’s Dream

This gelding ran a very impressive race last time out at 64-1. Dueling from the outside with fellow runner Microsecond, he put him away by four lengths at the end before getting caught by a closer. In this one, she’ll likely be dueling two or three wide again, but she’s proven she can do it, and Michelle Nevin has excellent numbers with horses in their second starts off of layoffs.

4- Wakanda Forever

Jeremiah Englehart is more famous for his work with two-year-olds, but his talent with first time starters is a big part of that success. This colt has a 380 Tomlinson and he recruits Luis Saez to ride, a good sign for Englehart. This firster is in with a chance in his first start.

3- Microsecond

This horse’s last race as the beaten favorite was somewhat disappointing. Dueling on the rail against fellow runner Jade’s Dream, he was plainly outrun despiste having the advantage on the track. In this one he may have to duel in between fellow runners Jade’s Dream and River Nile, which could make for a very difficult drip. Maybe he can improve in his second start off the layoff, but he’ll have to earn it.

Order: 1 7 4 3

I think Blackjack Davey has been well prepared by Linda Rice and deserves Irad Ortiz on his back. Jade’s Dream should have another difficult task here, but she did very well in the past in similar situations. Microsecond did not compete as well despite having an advantage last time, which is why he slots in fourth behind a credible first time starter from the barn of Jeremiah Englehart.

 

Race 4

$25,000 Claiming for Non-Winners of Two Races, Six Furlongs on the Dirt

This is a pretty weak race, even for the level of racing it represents. The field is small and the runners are consistent, but not exactly eye-catching. My top four:

6- Wicked Title

It appears that this filly has always been destined for the turf, but Chad Summers drops her in class and switches surfaces again. On both dirt and turf, the horses she’s admittedly struggled a little against represent far superior competition that anything she faces in this race, and she’s proven she can handle dirt well enough. Joel Rosario returns to ride, and he’s the only rider that’s guided her to the winner’s circle thus far in her career. She’s the class of the field, though the drop may raise an eyebrow or two.

3- Rousey

Little was expected of this filly when she was entered in open company competition earlier this month. She competed well, however, finishing second in a tougher 12-horse field. She takes a slight step up here, but I don’t think the competition itself is much better. She should be able to stalk a relatively quick pace up front and pick up the pieces in the stretch. Manny Franco returns to ride and Eddie Barker can occasionally be trusted to place a horse.

5- Flashpackinbarbie

This is the type of runner where a bettor might say, “Well, if she runs back to that 77 Beyer last April, she might be worth a shot.” Such a scenario may entice people, but it’s unlikely to happen. This horse has been entered at this level in open company for a reason, and if she runs at all, it will be comparable to her counterparts. She’ll likely have to duel from the outside against fellow runner Let’s Maga, and Jorge Abreu is winless with runners off of such a long layoff. She’s been impressive in the past, but she’ll have a tough task here.

2- Let’s Maga

This filly earned a 62 BSF in her last race while breaking her maiden, and that performance qualifies her in this race. However, she had an uncontested lead in that race, which often creates an inflated figure. It’s unlikely she gets another such lead here, but she will get the rail should a duel commence, and Luis Saez represents a major jockey upgrade.

Order: 6 3 5 2

I don’t believe Wicked Title is a natural dirt runner, but she’s proven she can handle it as she drops in class and rejoins Joel Rosario. Rousey is a qualified entry, and may be able to stalk a strong pace that sets up well for her. The 5 and 2, however, may suffer from that pace, especially since neither filly has proven she can duel effectively for the lead.

 

Race 5

$10,000 Claiming, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt

This is the type of race I force myself to play when I’m at the track. It’s not particularly interesting, but I figured that I’m there, so I might as well bet it. That doesn’t always go well. I formed an opinion here, and I think it’s reasonable, but that’s often when I think when betting these very weak races:

8- Malarkey

Jose Lezcano is off of yet another Linda Rice horse, as Jose Ortiz rides this mare after a layoff going back to January. That race was off of a long layoff as well, but demonstrated that she was running at a similar level that she could back in 2019. Here, she takes a drop in class to her lowest ever, and is running at a distance she’s handled well in the past. I expect her to compete well against these.

1A- Zecha

As an individual, this horse is clearly the best horse in the field. He’s always been a shade better than the others he’s running against at this low claiming level. However, Randi Persaud is winless off of the layoff, Eric Cancel will have to work out a closing trip and this horse will have to fire fresh against horses that have already run recently. She may just overcome the obstacles in front of her, but the argument to bet against is compelling enough to go against her here.

6- Stay Fond

Michael Miceli isn’t great with recently acquired claimers, but he’s had this mare for a long time now, so that doesn’t matter all that much. What matters is that he’s very successful with horses running after time off. Last year, this horse occasionally ran well enough to sweep this field off their feet, and if she can return to those performances, she’ll be very dangerous.

5- Cotton Candy Cutie

This horse hasn’t won in a very long time, but she always competes well. She finished third at this level in her last start, and it may have been the freshener she needed coming off a layoff. She deserves some consideration underneath and little else after that.

Order: 8 1A 6 5

Malarkey is the most sensible runner in this race, and should run well off of the break for Linda Rice. Zecha is likely more qualified, but questions with connections make me hesitant to invest too heavily. Stay Fond could win this race on the right day for new trainer Michael Miceli, but the layoff and a natural inconsistent streak make him hard to take on top. Cotton Candy Cutie is a great also-ran to fill out the top four.

 

Race 6

$80,000 Optional Claiming for Non-Winners of One Race, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt

This is an excellent field of three-year-olds trying to get experience before entering stakes competition. Some are more experienced than others, but there are several promising colts that make this race one worth watching. My top four:

2- Life Changer

Despite earning a slower speed figure than some others in here, this colt’s last start was easily the most visually impressive. He dueled on the rail against a horse that would eventually finish fifth, and then held off Dreams of Tomorrow, a very promising colt, in the stretch to earn a hard-fought maiden victory. John Terranova has been doing fairly well at Belmont this meet and is very successful stretching horses out to route distances (27% in 26 starts). This horse may even get an easier trip here than he did last time, as it’s unlikely there are any runners in here that can keep u with him early. Maybe one of the long shots sabotage his chances, but beyond that, there’s little preventing this colt from gaining an uncontested lead.

7- Creed

Was it the muddy track, or is this horse just that good. In his second career start, he made a sweeping move around a maiden field and won going away. He earned an 89 BSF that day, but I have my questions. First, I suspect that the field he was up against that day was much weaker than the competition his fellow runners has been facing. This might explain the margin of victory, which actually looks better on paper than it did on the replay. Second, this horse has a 412 Tomlinson for wet tracks, which may indicate that he excels on rainy days. His first start on a fast track was very good, but the speed figure wasn’t nearly as competitive as the one he earned on the wet. Based on the speed figure, I may appear a fool when this horse comes home to win by five lengths here. However, I don’t believe he’s that much better than this talented field.

4- Edge of Fire

There isn’t a very compelling case for this colt’s regression in his last start, although he did hit the gate at the start. Jimmy Jerkens hasn’t done well at Belmont thus far this meet either, creating the impression that he may not be ready to go here. I can’t really argue that, as he appeared to me as very flat in his last start. However, he finished four lengths behind Casino Grande in that race at Gulfstream, and I believe that runner is the real deal when he eventually enters a race at Belmont. This colt will have to duplicate that 85 BSF from two starts back, but if he does, he’ll likely win this race. The addition of John Velasquez is still somewhat encouraging as well.

8- Villainous

It’s hard to gain a class edge against such a talented field, but this colt has faced some superior three-year-olds this season. Silver Prospector and Wells Bayou are Derby contenders, while Taishan and Captain Bombastic are bonafide stakes runners going forward. I’ve watched Rushie’s replays at least fifty times this year, if only to watch his losing effort against Charlatan. This horse will have to run faster to take down this field, but his competition here actually represents some class relief. Jeremiah Englehart may sense this as well and recruited Junior Alvarado to ride.

Order: 2 7 4 8

I think Life Changer will handle a longer distance and establish a clear early lead. He’ll be very tough to beat in that case. I don’t believe Creed is as good as he appears on paper, but put him second because he could still compete against this field while regressing in form. Edge of Fire and Villainous are more experienced and have raced against some very good horses. They represent the class of the field and have excellent chances to win here.

 

Race 7

$80,000 Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on the Dirt

You could make this a graded stakes race and bettors wouldn’t bat an eyelash. There are two Triple Crown runners and two Breeders’ Cup participants in this optional claimer, and many of them are destined for stakes races in the future. It was a fun race to handicap, though my conclusions aren’t all that creative:

9- Complexity

This colt never really improved from two to three, but he was probably racing in sprints where he didn’t belong. He finally returns to a route distance for the first time since the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and I think this is a distance better suited to his running style. He’ll be gunning for the lead early, and there’s a problem there, because he won’t be alone. Jose Ortiz should attempt to stalk with him rather than try to contend three wide, a move he’s done with this colt in sprints. Chad Brown will have him ready off the layoff, and he’s the main danger here.

6- Nicodemus

This horse has been racing in stakes competition for over a year, and finally takes a step down to optional claiming competition. The turf start off of the layoff obviously wasn’t an attempt to win, and it may have prepared him for this start. Linda Rice is very effective with horses in second starts off of layoffs as well. His performance in the G3 Toboggan in January was brilliant, closing fast to finish second in a photo against Mind Control and Sunny Ridge. This colt may have a strong pace to shoot at here as well, in which case he’ll be dangerous.

3- Spinoff

This colt fared worse than fellow runner Win Win Win in the 2019 Triple Crown, but he’s put together a reasonable career since. He’s mostly been running at longer distances, and a cutback to a mile may improve his chances for trainer Todd Pletcher, who’s usually aware of his horses’ abilities. Irad Ortiz returns to ride, and while he’ll have to improve a little, it won’t be a surprise if he runs well here.

5- Win Win Win

This former Kentucky Derby runner found some success on the turf upon exiting the Triple Crown. This will be his first start on dirt since the Preakness, a seventh place finish behind War of Will. He was notorious at the time as a deep closer, but at least he’ll have a hot pace to run at in this one. Even still, he’ll have to improve as a four-year-old and his first start of the year on turf wasn’t encouraging. I’m considering him in my top four because he’s still being treated like a top horse by Michael Trombetta. Julian Pimentel’s presence on a horse he regularly rode last year is very interesting.

Order: 9 6 3 5

Complexity has a frustrating inconsistent streak, but should do well here in her first route race since 2018. Hopefully Jose Ortiz chooses to stalk the pace, as a speed duel could be detrimental to his chances. Nicodemus is quietly getting class relief in this contest and figures well as a closer against a strong pace. He regularly competes well and should fire here for Linda Rice. Maybe it’s my Triple Crown bias, but Spinoff and Win Win Win enter my top four for different reasons. Spinoff fits well here cutting back to a shorter distance while Win Win Win may have some success returning to dirt for a trainer that appears confident.

 

Race 8

Mount Vernon Stakes (NY-Bred), 1 Mile on the Widener Turf

This is a very good statebred turf stakes, but unfortunately, statebred turf stakes have become a little predictable in recent years. Fifty Five has been dominant at this level for a very long time and figures here as the main threat again. She’ll be tough to beat, but this is still an evenly matched field that can put on a good race:

1- Fifty Five

Well, this isn’t that hard. If your life depended on picking a horse to run well, Fifty Five would be a very health-conscious choice. This mare always runs her race, terrorizing the NY-bred turf scene for two years in the process. There’s no reason to suspect she’ll drop off as she enters her six-year-old season for Chad Brown.

3- War Canoe

When I was 16 or 17, I picked the wrong horse to strongly dislike. This horse let me down several times back in my high school days of handicapping, and I declared her an enemy and a quitter. Then she suddenly improved to the status of stakes runner. Unfortunately, I have to admit she’s qualified here, though I certainly hope Fifty Five blows her doors off.

4- Munchkin Money

This mare’s last race in February was disappointing, but her race before that was too good to pass on. In an open company G3 stakes at Gulfstream, she closed very well and just missed in a photo finish for first. This is her first race of the Belmont meet, and Christophe Clement recruits Manny Franco to ride, which isn’t his best move but doesn’t count against his mare either. The forced layoff may have given her some much needed rest, in which case she can improve here off the layoff.

5- Classic Lady

This mare is lacking in class against this field, but her last race of 2019 makes her a contender here. She finally broke through the statebred optional claiming condition in a photo finish, earning a solid 92 BSF in the process. She moved barns over the winter from Jorge Abreu to Christophe Clement, an improvement in my eyes, and Clement has Joel Rosario, one of his favorite jockeys, riding her. She may be a shade behind these other runners, but she stands to make some noise in her first start of the year.

 

Order: 1 3 4 5

Fifty Five has been tough for years now, and should be tough again. Against my desires, War Canoe has developed into a fairly talented horse, though even she appears to be a step below the main threat. Munchkin Money has a class edge over this field, though it’s unclear which performance we’ll be getting. Classic Lady has one performance that qualifies her in this field, not enough to earn the top spot but enough warrant consideration underneath.

 

Race 9

$40,000 Maiden Claiming for NY-Breds, 1 ⅛ Miles on the Inner Turf

Avert your eyes for this one. These horses aren’t completely hopeless, but they don’t seem willing to put on a good show either. I didn’t look at this one long, mostly because I value my time:

11- Painite

Yeah I know, I could be more creative here. However, she ran very well in her last race against a tougher field than the one she’s facing today. Romero Maragh will have to work out a trip on the outside, but that’s not enough to knock this horse.

2- Herwaze

This horse actually ran fairly well in his first start last year, though she was gradually worn down in the stretch. She’s four now and Dermot Magner recruits Joel Rosario to ride. She has every right to improve. Many of her main competition is on the far outside as well, which can help her chances in her 2020 debut.

12- Mizzen the Mark

She wasn’t all that impressive in her first start of the meet, finishing eighth behind fellow runner Central Capital at this level. However, Luis Saez signs on to ride for Dominick Schettino, and that’s asking a lot of the top-notch jockey. Irad Ortiz rode her last time, and the fact that this horse keeps recruiting top jockeys might indicate that she has promise beyond her form on paper.

4- Apollo’s Abraxas

I don’t know. He’s been beat badly in statebred maiden special weights, and he might get beat badly in statebred maiden claiming races. However, his 51 BSF in his first race of the meet indicates an improvement over his form last year. I’m willing to consider him as a maybe.

Order: 11 2 12 4

Painite ran a very solid race last time out against a tougher field, and should be ready to go here in her second start at the meet. Herwaze can improve on her one start last year, and it’s always nice to see Joel Rosario taking the reins. Mizzen the Mark is a little unknown, but keeps attracting top riders for mediocre performances. Apollo’s Abraxas is finally dropping in class, and that still might not be enough for her.